Matrixport Research: Geopolitical Situation Disturbs the Market, Short-term Prices Under Significant Pressure

Geopolitical Tensions Escalate, Safe-Haven Assets See Significant Inflows

In the early hours of the 13th, Israel launched airstrikes against Iran, significantly escalating the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, leading to a strong market reaction. The "safe-haven investment frenzy" swept across the globe once again, with U.S. Treasury bonds, gold, and crude oil all rising sharply. Among them, crude oil surged over 10% at one point, and gold also broke through $3,400, with a daily increase of over 1.68%. Risk assets collectively fell in price. BTC's price dropped over 3% at one point, falling below $103,000, while ETH fell about 6.9%.

Currently, BTC has a relatively clear support level at $101,000, but short-term cryptocurrency prices may still be dominated by geopolitical news. The market is still waiting for more geopolitical updates and Iran's potential responses. If traders choose to significantly reduce their exposure to risk assets before the weekend, risk sentiment may further deteriorate.

Intensive Preparations for Crypto IPOs, Wall Street May Propel BTC to Maintain High Levels

Data shows that several cryptocurrency companies are preparing for IPOs, and the strong BTC market not only sparks intense interest from investors but also brings considerable advisory income to investment banks.

Twelve U.S. companies may become candidates for the next round of IPOs. Among them, Circle and Galaxy Digital have already completed their listings. Two other cryptocurrency exchanges—Bullish and Gemini—are reported to have submitted IPO applications, with market valuations of $13.5 billion and $10.5 billion, respectively. Kraken is also expected to initiate its IPO process in the fourth quarter of 2025 or the first quarter of 2026, with a valuation potentially reaching $16.2 billion. Given that Kraken and Circle have similar revenue expectations for 2024, this valuation roughly aligns with Coinbase's current revenue multiples.

Although some funds may have originally been allocated to BTC ETFs or other crypto assets, this wave of IPOs is reshaping market structure: on one hand, it absorbs liquidity, and on the other hand, it expands investors' exposure to the crypto ecosystem, thereby providing some degree of support for BTC prices.

Last Friday, Bitcoin approached the $100,000 mark, and the market showed initial signs. Strong demand for Circle's stock boosted Bitcoin's strong rebound, breaking through the technical resistance level of $106,000. However, with the development of geopolitical situations and the market entering a relatively calm summer period, it is possible that the current market may enter a short-term consolidation phase. As Wall Street actively prepares for more crypto-related IPOs, BTC is expected to continue benefiting from increased media and investor attention.

Disclaimer: The market carries risks, and investment should be approached with caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Trading in digital assets may involve significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided in this content.