macroeconomics

Strategy co-founder Michael Saylor posted on social media, "Bitcoin is the ultimate hedge against chaos," accompanied by the "$BTC" tag, once again positioning Bitcoin as a core asset tool to address macro and financial uncertainties.

According to The Block, the Algorand Foundation announced a 25% staff reduction on March 18, 2026. The foundation stated that this layoff is a measure to respond to global macroeconomic uncertainty and the overall downturn in the cryptocurrency market, and it is not a hasty decision. It is reported that the total number of employees at the foundation is less than 200.Currently, the foundation holds approximately $38 million in dollar-denominated assets and 1.1 million ALGO tokens, with ALGO having a market capitalization of about $805.8 million, ranking 78th globally. The foundation stated that it will continue to focus on the long-term development and ecosystem construction of the Algorand protocol. This layoff is a reflection of the recent wave of layoffs in the cryptocurrency industry, with several projects such as OP Labs, Messari, and Block also announcing layoffs recently.

According to Jinshi News, Guolian Minsheng Macro stated that the Federal Reserve still has room for interest rate cuts this year. The impact of oil prices is more reflected in the pace and will not change the overall trend of interest rate cuts. Although the rate cut is delayed, it will eventually happen.

QCP Capital released a market analysis stating that BTC's current price remains around $74,000, oscillating within a recent range with insufficient upward momentum.Although the overall cryptocurrency market is under pressure, the decline is relatively controllable compared to the pullback of other macro-sensitive risk assets. On-chain data shows that there is still buying behavior at lower levels, but spot trading volume is low, and recent price movements are mainly influenced by macro factors.On the macro level, this week is the most important central bank policy week of the year. The Federal Reserve will announce the results of the March interest rate meeting on Wednesday, while the European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, and Bank of England will successively release their decisions on Thursday. Due to high oil prices, the market has significantly lowered interest rate cut expectations, and the interest rate environment's support for crypto assets is weakening.At the same time, geopolitical risks persist, and oil prices remain around $100 per barrel, with the market overall maintaining stagflation expectations. QCP Capital points out that BTC currently does not exhibit pure high-beta risk asset characteristics, nor has it formed a stable inflow of safe-haven funds. Before the policy path and geopolitical situation become clearer, the range-bound oscillation pattern may continue.

According to CoinDesk, Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone reiterated his bearish view that Bitcoin could drop below $10,000, believing that the crypto market is still undergoing a macro-driven long-term adjustment.McGlone pointed out that as institutional participation increases, Bitcoin's correlation with speculative assets has strengthened, undermining its function as a non-correlated hedge against traditional markets. The current market needs to go through a clearing process of excessive speculation. Several analysts have refuted this. The CEO of Quantum Economics stated that for Bitcoin to reach $10,000, extreme events such as a global liquidity crisis, nuclear war, and internet shutdown would be necessary.AdLunam analysts believe that a drop to $28,000 may require a global liquidity contraction or a broader financial stress event. PrimeXBT senior market analysts expect Bitcoin to consolidate in the $60,000 to $70,000 range, with the next major accumulation zone possibly between $30,000 and $40,000, but the likelihood of reaching $10,000 is very low. Some analysts pointed out that Bitcoin completed a major bear market correction in 2022, and the current price is about 50% down from its historical peak, possibly having reached the bottom.

According to Jinshi reports, Fed's Schmid stated that attention should be paid to the macro situation and the inflation target should be lowered to 2%; a large number of fiscal stimulus measures are expected to be introduced in 2026.

According to Jinshi reports, analysts say that due to the Middle East conflict potentially triggering a demand for immediate liquidity, the dollar strengthened against most currencies during the Asian trading session. Vishnu Varathan, head of macro research at Mizuho Securities, stated that due to the "cash is king" mentality, the dollar may maintain buying advantages, which could be further solidified by the greater disadvantages of the euro and most other non-oil currencies.

According to DL News, Shawn Young, chief analyst at MEXC Research, stated that cryptocurrency traders are expected to drive Bitcoin prices back to $100,000. Shawn Young said, "Although buyers are not purchasing digital assets on a large scale like they did a few months ago, the amount of Bitcoin they buy daily still exceeds the daily mining output. This creates a net positive supply dynamic that could trigger a short-term rebound." Some analysts warn that the situation could worsen.Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Mike McGlone even predicts that Bitcoin prices could evaporate by 85%, eventually falling to $10,000. His reasoning is that the soaring stock market has siphoned off market volatility, while gold and silver have outperformed Bitcoin as safe-haven assets. Additionally, the industry seems to have lost confidence in President Trump's push for cryptocurrency, which will drive prices lower.Researchers like Ben Harvey from crypto investment firm Keyrock believe that Bitcoin's next move will not be determined by internal crypto factors but will depend on macro factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and institutional investors buying Bitcoin ETFs. Bloomberg data shows that concerns over an AI spending bubble have triggered a surge in credit default swap trading—these complex financial contracts were almost ignored a year ago. These contracts are similar to insurance, paying out when companies cannot repay their debts.Currently, Alphabet's nearly $900 million debt and Meta's nearly $700 million debt are linked to these contracts. This means that hedge funds are increasingly using these derivatives to hedge against downside risks. In other words, investors are hedging against a significant market sell-off that could drag down Bitcoin prices.Tech stocks, referred to as "AI panic trades," have been under pressure since January. The BlackRock flagship tech ETF (which tracks industry leaders like Microsoft, Oracle, and Palantir) has seen a decline of just over 23% year-to-date.Analysts expect that large tech companies will increase their borrowing from $165 billion in 2025 to $400 billion this year to invest in AI data centers, which could total trillions of dollars in investment costs—if AI projects fail to generate returns, investor risks will increase. Young stated that Bitcoin trading trends are aligning with tech stocks, thus "being the first to bear the impact of liquidity or capital shifts."

According to Jinshi, Goldman Sachs CEO Solomon stated that the current macroeconomic situation is very favorable for risk assets.

According to The Block, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $708.7 million yesterday, marking the largest single-day outflow in nearly two months, while the Ethereum ETF experienced a net outflow of $286.9 million. In the context of increasing macroeconomic uncertainty, institutional investors are further reducing their risk exposure.BTC Markets crypto analyst Rachael Lucas stated that Wednesday's outflows resemble typical "de-risking" behavior. She noted that when the macro environment turns unfavorable, such as rising interest rates, escalating geopolitical risks, or sudden increases in market volatility, institutional investors tend to withdraw funds from high-beta assets first.This is not a signal of structural weakness, but rather a tightening of risk exposure by institutions before uncertainty arises, and it does not imply a abandonment of the cryptocurrency asset class.

According to CoinDesk, veteran trader Peter Brandt, who accurately predicted the Bitcoin crash in 2018, forecasts that Bitcoin could drop to the range of $58,000 to $62,000 within two weeks. Several market analysts have warned that the current macroeconomic conditions, including the risk of escalating tariffs in Europe and the U.S. and geopolitical tensions, have paved the way for Bitcoin's decline.Brandt pointed out on social media that Bitcoin's key resistance level is around $102,300 and remains in a bearish trend. Analyst Jason Fernandes believes that this target could technically be achieved, but the driving factors are rooted in the macro environment rather than purely chart patterns. He emphasized that although U.S. inflation has fallen below 2%, central bank policies remain cautious, and any escalation in tariffs or geopolitical friction could raise inflation again and delay interest rate cuts. As long as interest rates remain restrictive and liquidity is constrained, the possibility of Bitcoin returning to the mid-$55,000 range still exists.Mati Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics, also agrees with Brandt's assessment of the probabilities and points out that after years of Federal Reserve liquidity tightening and the worst economic environment in decades, the impact of macro conditions may outweigh any single chart pattern. Options market data shows that the probability of Bitcoin falling below $80,000 before June is about 30%.

Renowned crypto analyst @IamCryptoWolf posted on the X platform, stating that the weekly RSI indicator for the BTC/GOLD ratio is currently at an oversold level of about 27.54, which historically has led to strong rebounds of BTC relative to gold.The chart shows that since 2013, similar key reversal points (such as in 2015 and 2018) have led to the BTC/GOLD ratio rising over 100% multiple times. Market data by the end of 2025 indicates that this ratio has reached a three-year low, and analysts believe that the macroeconomic environment may drive BTC to outperform gold further in 2026.@IamCryptoWolf published his analytical views on the Tradingview platform in 2014 and has 113,000 followers on the X platform. The analyst mentioned earlier in November that "Ethereum will still have adjustments in November, and if it falls below $3100, a bear market will begin."

According to Finbold, macroeconomist Henrik Zeberg posted on the X platform that the Federal Reserve has over 400 PhD economists but still missed obvious and insightful economic patterns. He stated that we are heading towards a massive economic recession, and despite the Federal Reserve having ample resources, it remains oblivious to this.Zeberg emphasized that understanding the correct sequence of events in the business cycle is crucial for predicting economic recessions, and the Federal Reserve's current expectations underestimate the severity and timing of the impending economic downturn.The report states that he believes the unemployment rate has already risen before every major economic recession and remains a "never-fail" indicator. The U.S. unemployment rate reached 4.6% in November, the highest level in four years, approaching the recession threshold set by the Sam Rule, and raising the likelihood of an economic recession to about 40%.