After the premium reset, is it time for MSTR to enter?

Author: Chloe, ChainCatcher

When Bitcoin's price retraced 30% from its all-time high and spot ETFs faced three consecutive months of net outflows, the world's largest Bitcoin strategic reserve company, Strategy, defied the trend by ramping up its purchases with over $3.7 billion in a single month. At the same time, its stock price, MSTR, experienced a severe correction of over 60%, and its mNAV was adjusted from 2.4 to a rational range of 1.07. This article will analyze three future scenarios for Strategy under different market conditions, considering the current macro data and the weak state of institutional investors. Has the best entry point for MSTR arrived now that the premium bubble has burst?

Strategy's Contrarian Buying, Over $3.7 Billion in BTC Purchases in a Single Month

Since Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $126,000 in October 2025, it has undergone a sharp retracement, currently falling to around $88,000, a decline of 30%. However, this correction has not shaken the resolve of Strategy, the world's largest Bitcoin reserve company, which continued to buy aggressively in early 2026, demonstrating its high confidence in Bitcoin to the global market.

According to Bitcoin Strategy Tracker data, Strategy purchased over 40,000 Bitcoins in January 2026 alone. Notably, between January 6 and January 20, it accumulated 35,932 Bitcoins in two batches, with an average purchase price ranging from $91,500 to $95,300. Statistics show that Strategy's total investment in January reached $3.7 billion; as of January 27, it had accumulated 712,647 Bitcoins on its balance sheet, with an overall average purchase cost of $76,038.

In addition to aggressively buying in the spot market, Strategy is also actively expanding its influence into the European market. Several financial institutions have launched leveraged products linked to Strategy (MSTR) on major European exchanges, attempting to attract traditional capital from across the Atlantic. On the other hand, interest from top global financial institutions in holding MSTR has also shown significant growth, with funds under asset management giant Vanguard Group recently disclosing holdings in Strategy stock; the Louisiana State Employees' Retirement System and Japan's financial giant Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Group have also reported including MSTR in their investment portfolios.

Structural Weakness in Bitcoin and Institutional Hesitation

However, Strategy's enthusiastic buying and numerous positive news have not dispelled the overall chill in the market. For investors, the current macro data shows a clear demand gap:

Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen net outflows for three consecutive months: Since November 2025, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs have faced a continuous bleeding situation, including a net outflow of up to $3.48 billion in November, $1.09 billion in December, and although the outflow slowed to $111 million in January 2026, the outflow trend has not ended. This indicates that mainstream Wall Street funds have continued to withdraw during this period, contrasting sharply with Strategy's contrarian buying.

Scattered and Uneven Inflows into Bitcoin Treasuries: Glassnode reports that recent corporate fund inflows have mainly concentrated on event-driven trades rather than general capital accumulation. The chart below shows that buying has primarily been driven by Strategy, while other Bitcoin treasury companies have not made further purchases recently, contrasting sharply with the coordinated buying by multiple treasury companies from May to August 2025 that accelerated the trend.

Additionally, a harsh reality can be observed: Bitcoin has dropped from a high of $126,000 to its current level of $88,000, a decline of about 30%; however, the stock price of Strategy (MSTR) has plummeted from a peak of $457 in July last year to around $160 now, a staggering decline of 65%, indicating that Strategy's drop is nearly double that of Bitcoin. The leverage tool that facilitated the rise has turned into an "accelerator" for the stock price crash during the downturn.

MSTR's Premium Reset and Three Future Scenarios

After experiencing a dual correction in stock price and premium, the core question facing investors is: Is the current price of Strategy's MSTR stock at $160 an entry opportunity or the beginning of another collapse?

A key indicator is: Strategy's mNAV performance relative to its Bitcoin holdings. At the end of 2024, the market was willing to pay a premium of up to 2.4 times to hold MSTR; however, with the recent stock price drop of over 60%, this premium has significantly shrunk to 1.07 times. From a valuation perspective, this means that the emotional bubble in the market has been largely squeezed, and the current stock price is very close to its asset floor price, providing a more cost-effective entry point for long-term bullish investors in Bitcoin.

However, Strategy's debt risk cannot be ignored. As of early 2026, the company's perpetual preferred equity has reached $8.36 billion, surpassing its $8.21 billion convertible debt. While this shift eliminates refinancing pressure from maturing debt, it also brings ongoing cash outflows. Strategy currently holds about $2.25 billion in cash reserves, while its annual dividend and interest obligations amount to approximately $876 million.

At the current spending rate, the company has about two and a half years of financial buffer. A more critical test will come in September 2027, when its $1.01 billion "put option" on the 2028 notes may require cash payment, depending on the stock price performance at that time.

At the same time, we can summarize the following three scenarios for the future based on Forbes' perspective:

Scenario One (Base Case): If Bitcoin remains in the range of $85,000 to $100,000, the market will enter a period of patience testing. Limited by uncertainties in macroeconomic policies, geopolitical turmoil, and a lack of new large institutional buying groups, Strategy's premium is expected to remain low, with the stock price projected to fluctuate between $150 and $250.

Scenario Two (Optimistic Outlook): If Bitcoin breaks through the $100,000 mark and attempts to reach $150,000, Strategy is likely to restart its "leveraged long" engine. According to Canaccord Genuity and Bernstein's analysis, the target price could return to above $450. For investors seeking excess returns, Strategy remains the strongest leveraged Bitcoin investment vehicle in the current capital market.

Scenario Three (Pessimistic Outlook): This is the situation that critics like Peter Schiff are most worried about. If Bitcoin's price falls below $80,000, or even approaches the average cost line of $76,000, the company will struggle to maintain its buying power through low-cost financing tools; more critically, the accumulated dividends on perpetual preferred stock will face significant financial pressure, potentially triggering a vicious cycle of asset value and financing capability undermining each other.

The Market "Consensus" is in a Fragile State; Whether to Go Long Depends on Investors' Risk Appetite

Should one go long on Strategy (MSTR) now? The argument for going long is that the premium has reset (mNAV has dropped from a high of 2.4 to 1.07), and the risk has been relatively released. If one believes that Bitcoin below $100,000 represents a severe "value mismatch," then Strategy is the best leverage for amplifying profits.

On the other hand, the conservative viewpoint is that uncertainties in macroeconomic policies, geopolitical turmoil, continued ETF outflows, and corporate treasury hesitance indicate that the market "consensus" is in a fragile state. If Strategy stands alone against the overall macro gravity, it may only provide a bottoming effect.

Ultimately, the answer still depends on investors' risk appetite. For those who believe that digital gold will ultimately prevail, this is an entry opportunity after the premium reduction; but for those seeking stable capital, maintaining neutrality until seeing Wall Street institutions shift back to net inflows may be a more rational choice.