Matrixport Research: BTC price may enter the next rising range

BTC's summer consolidation phase may be coming to an end, as the BTC price approaches key breakthrough resistance levels, potentially entering a new upward range. The actual volatility of BTC has dropped to near multi-year lows, with one-week implied volatility maintaining around 30%. The decline in volatility not only reflects a maturing market structure but also opens up participation space for risk-averse institutional investors.

Strong Inflows into BTC Spot ETFs, Market Cap Growth Requires More Capital Support

BTC ETF inflows have surprisingly remained resilient. Since April, approximately $14 billion has flowed into BTC spot ETFs, about $4 billion higher than the inflow scale corresponding to the spot price. This portion of "real demand" is highly sticky, showing almost no obvious short-term speculative signs, with BTC increasingly being viewed as a long-term allocation asset rather than a short-term trading tool.

While BTC inflows are strong, the overall capital efficiency in the crypto market is declining. The inflow scale for 2025 is expected to be below the peak of $377 billion in 2024, with current trends annualizing to about $291 billion. The capital density required to boost BTC's market cap is far higher than in the past. Calculating based on a $1 investment yielding a 2.0 to 2.6 times market cap growth, maintaining price increases is becoming increasingly reliant on capital support. Therefore, despite BTC experiencing strong ETF inflows recently, along with continuous accumulation of treasury funds, the price remains in a range-bound consolidation.

Strong Participation from Wall Street May Provide Ample Momentum for BTC Price Increase

Data shows that there are currently over $100 billion in crypto-related IPOs in preparation. Circle has already gone public, performing far beyond market expectations. Compared to native crypto assets, crypto concept stocks offer institutional investors a more familiar investment path with "leverage," and the "technological innovation" aspect makes the narrative more grandiose.

Entering Historically Strong Performance Months, BTC Price Has a Chance to Hit $120,000

July is typically a relatively strong month for BTC, with historical data showing seven out of the past ten years have seen increases, averaging a rise of 9.1%. In contrast, the market performance in August and September tends to be weaker due to declining market activity and rising macro uncertainty. If this seasonal characteristic continues, BTC prices may experience a surge in the coming weeks, followed by a return to seasonal consolidation.

Currently, the Federal Reserve's stance has turned more dovish, and overall earnings reports from U.S. stocks are positive, combined with a market sentiment recovery after the "July 4" holiday, all providing temporary external support for BTC prices. However, if overall net inflows do not significantly rebound, especially lacking drivers from retail investors or new funds, it is possible that this rebound may face resistance at $116,000, with an ideal scenario allowing BTC prices to reach $120,000.

The market's greed and fear index indirectly validates the above assumptions. Currently, the "Greed/Fear Index" smooth moving average shows signs of bottoming and is expected to move towards the "Greed Zone." Therefore, if BTC continues its typical seasonal strength in July, the originally relatively conservative "summer adjustment" may face correction.

Disclaimer: The market carries risks, and investment should be approached with caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Trading in digital assets may involve significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided herein.