Matrixport Market Observation: BTC High-Range Fluctuation, ETH Synchronized Upward Movement, RWA Ecosystem Accelerating Expansion

Last week (July 2 - July 8), driven by macroeconomic factors and geopolitical stimuli, BTC broke through $110,000, rising over 5%, followed by high-level fluctuations, with ETH rising in sync. Influenced by the release of non-farm payroll data, pressure on the dollar, and increased expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, BTC attracted capital attention. On July 3, the price broke through $109,000, reaching a high of $110,529.18, and then fluctuated in the range of $108,500-$109,500, with a maximum weekly increase of 5.16%. On July 6, stimulated by Musk's establishment of the "American Party" and public support for BTC, the BTC price surged rapidly, nearing $110,000, with a single-day increase of over 5%. However, strong resistance above caused BTC to retreat to around $108,000, with the current price stabilizing around $108,387. Last week, ETH's price movement was generally consistent with BTC, with a maximum weekly increase of 11.06%, and the current price stabilizing around $2,605 (Binance spot, July 9, 13:29).

After the National Day holiday, U.S. stocks fell sharply from their highs. As of the close on July 8, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 600 points at one point during the day, closing down over 400 points, while the Nasdaq index fell nearly 1%. U.S. President Trump announced a maximum 40% tariff increase on countries such as Japan and South Korea, reigniting trade tensions and dragging down the performance of the stock and bond markets.

Market Interpretation

Musk's "American Party" Sparks Political Debate in Web3, BTC Market Sentiment Heats Up

On July 6, Musk announced the establishment of the "American Party" on X, publicly opposing the "Too Big to Fail Act," emphasizing the need to "restore your freedom," and clearly supporting BTC, stating that "fiat currency has no hope." Following the news, Tesla's U.S. stock fell over 7% in after-hours trading. The event quickly resonated within the crypto community and was seen as an innovative experiment in Web3 politics and decentralized mobilization.

BTC was boosted by Musk's statement, with the price soaring close to $110,000. The American Party is based on blockchain and digital assets as a political consensus, aligning with the macro trend of pressure on the dollar's credibility and global regulatory easing. Market analysis indicates that BTC, as an asset to hedge against inflation and systemic risk, is gaining a new round of political "endorsement."

In the short term, BTC is consolidating at high levels, with the market focusing on subsequent policy directions and selling pressure at high levels. In the long term, the accelerated integration of Web3 technology and global financial governance is expected to continuously strengthen BTC consensus, driving a new pattern in the digital asset ecosystem.

Non-Farm Employment Exceeds Expectations, Rate Cut Expectations Cool, BTC High-Level Fluctuations

The non-farm payroll data released last week showed that the U.S. added 147,000 jobs in June, exceeding the expected 110,000, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. This indicates that the job market remains resilient, and the risk of a U.S. economic recession has eased in the short term. As a result, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in July rose to 76.7%, while the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut in September fell to 21.8%.

BTC continued to strengthen before the non-farm data was released, entering a high-level fluctuation range after breaking through $109,000. Influenced by the better-than-expected employment data, BTC experienced a pullback during the day, with prices fluctuating around the $108,000-$110,000 range over 24 hours. Overall, strong employment data has temporarily suppressed the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate cut space, stabilizing the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, leading to reduced volatility in risk assets and a more rational market sentiment. Future attention should be paid to U.S. CPI and other macro data, as well as Federal Reserve statements, to assess whether the crypto market can gain new upward momentum.

RWA Market Sees Dual Growth in Users and Assets, Ecosystem Expansion Enters New Cycle

As of July 8, the total on-chain market value of RWA reached $24.52 billion, remaining flat month-on-month, but the number of asset holders and issuers increased by 25% and 27%, respectively, highlighting a significant trend of ecosystem "expansion." In terms of capital allocation, private credit slightly decreased to $14.1 billion, while U.S. Treasury holdings increased to $7.5 billion, indicating a preference for stable assets. The scale and number of stablecoin users also saw slight growth, providing liquidity support for the market. Overall, while the market value remains flat, on-chain innovation is active, and the RWA market is expected to enter a new growth cycle of user and asset resonance.

It is worth mentioning that recently, Matrixport's Chief Operating Officer Cynthia revealed at an offline event that Matrixport has established an XAUm strategic reserve to enhance its ability to respond to cyclical fluctuations and will continue to promote the on-chain integration of cornerstone assets like gold, creating new pathways for investors to access quality RWA. This move not only enhances financial stability but also reflects that leading institutions are actively expanding the application depth of commodities like gold in the on-chain ecosystem, bringing more possibilities for on-chain RWA asset allocation.

Market Highlights

U.S. Policy Combination Stimulates Record Highs in U.S. Stocks, Tariff Upgrades Bring Uncertainty

In early July, U.S. President signed the "Too Big to Fail Act," with large-scale tax cuts and fiscal stimulus boosting the economy, leading the S&P 500 index to reach a new high. At the same time, Trump announced an increase in tariffs on 12 countries to 10%-70%, expected to take effect in August, raising global trade and inflation risks. In the short term, U.S. stocks benefit from favorable policies and rate cut expectations, showing an optimistic overall trend, but with high valuations, caution is needed regarding potential volatility from tariffs and profit changes.

BTC Whales Activate, 80,000 BTC Transfer Draws Market Attention

Last week, eight early wallets transferred a total of 80,000 BTC, valued at approximately $8.69 billion, setting a record for the largest single transfer during the "Satoshi Era." The transferred BTC were all mined before 2011, with original costs as low as $0.78-$3.37, yielding over a hundred thousand times profit. Currently, these BTC have not flowed into exchanges, but their holding scale accounts for as much as 13.4% of MicroStrategy, exceeding the total of several listed institutions. The massive transfer is seen by the market as a potential selling pressure signal, which may intensify BTC volatility and cautious sentiment in the short term, requiring close attention to subsequent capital flows.

Institutions Aggressively Buy ETH, SharpLink Drives ETH Treasury Craze

Nasdaq-listed company SharpLink Gaming spent $463 million to purchase 176,000 ETH, with over 95% already staked, becoming the largest publicly listed holder of the asset. This news drove the stock price to surge by 400%, with companies like Bitmine Immersion following suit, accelerating the trend of institutional treasury formation.

Disclaimer: The above content does not constitute investment advice, sales offers, or purchase offers to residents of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, the United States, Singapore, or other countries or regions where such offers or invitations may be prohibited by law. Trading in digital assets may involve significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided herein.