You shouldn't ask if the Bitcoin bull market is over, but rather ask: What season are we in now?

1. From Bull and Bear to Wolf and Eagle: Returning the Market Palette to Investors

In the past, most of us were accustomed to dividing the market into two colors—upward movement is a bull market, and downward movement is a bear market.

Rising is "full of red light," while falling is "ice-cold and snowy."

But Jesse B. Mackey proposed a more realistic depiction of the market. He brought out a more nuanced palette and told us:

"What you see is just a corner of the black-and-white world. The real market is a colorful map."

In addition to the classic roles of bull and bear, he added two other frequently overlooked but very common protagonists—Wolf Market and Eagle Market. This is not just for conceptual play; it stems from his detailed breakdown and classification of every daily chart of the S&P 500 from 1950 to 2017, revealing statistical truths.

Next, let's get to know these four types of "market weather" one by one:

🐻 1.1 Bear Market

Standard definition: A cumulative decline of more than 20% from the recent high.

Climate characteristics: A cold wave strikes, the market feels like a sudden power outage, trading volume surges, and the fear index (VIX) skyrockets.

Psychological feeling: Every green candlestick feels like foam in a tsunami, with your heartbeat dropping along with your account value.

🐂 1.2 Bull Market

Standard definition: An upward range that does not meet the bear market definition, commonly referred to as a bull market.

Historical characteristics: Lasts an average of 2.7 years, with a median increase of about 112%.

Climate characteristics: A gentle spring breeze, the market rises slowly along the 200-day moving average, and confidence quietly returns.

Investment rhythm: Dollar-cost averaging, holding long-term, and doing nothing often yield the best returns.

🐺 1.3 Wolf Market

Standard definition: A decline of more than 10% from a high, followed by a rebound to the original position; or two declines of ≥10% without making a new high in between.

Historical occurrence rate: About 22% of the market calendar.

Visual picture: Candlesticks look like saw teeth pulling back and forth, direction is unclear, and technical traders are repeatedly "swept away."

Investment experience: You don't feel the market is falling, but your account is continuously bleeding. Trend systems often fail in this market, being repeatedly "butchered."

🦅 1.4 Eagle Market

Standard definition: A rise of ≥30% over the past year without a decline of ≥10%.

Historical occurrence rate: As high as 34%, more common than bull markets.

Climate characteristics: It feels like being pulled up by a balloon, with prices continuously rising but volatility unusually calm.

Typical scenario: You hesitate, waiting for a pullback, but the market never looks back; it rises while leaving onlookers behind.

Thus, when Mackey reclassified and analyzed 70 years of daily market data, he discovered a shocking fact:

The combined time of Wolf and Eagle markets accounted for 56%, while the bull market we are most familiar with only accounted for 24%; the bear market accounted for 17%, with the remaining 3% unclassifiable.

What does this mean?

It means that most of the time, we actually live in markets outside of "bull and bear," yet remain completely unaware.

We wait for pullbacks in Eagle markets, chase trends in Wolf markets, and frequently switch positions in the illusion of a bull market—ultimately either missing out or having our confidence worn down.

The real problem is not "you guessed the bull and bear wrong," but rather that the map you are using does not even chart the trajectories of Wolf and Eagle.

So what is the logic behind this? Why has the market transformed in this way?

2. Why Do We Need "Wolf and Eagle"?

In one sentence:

The black-and-white glasses of bull and bear can no longer see this colorful and abnormal market.

2.1 Correlation: The Whole Street is Going the Other Way

The biggest premise of the bull-bear dichotomy is "up and down alternate": when stocks fall, bonds rise, and vice versa. This is a classic logic of "asset negative correlation" and the ballast of old-fashioned asset allocation.

But starting in 2022, this "physical law" suddenly became ineffective, as if gravity had disappeared. According to Bank of America’s global research, between 2022 and 2023, the 60-day rolling correlation between U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds and the S&P 500 turned positive multiple times, peaking close to 0.6.

What does this mean? You thought buying bonds at the bottom of a bear market was a hedge, only to find stocks and bonds both "free-falling"; by the end of 2023, they both soared together.

The bull-bear model is only suitable for handling clear "one up, one down" scenarios, but now you are facing a "double up, double down" turbulence, and it has fallen silent.

2.2 Macroeconomic Policy: It Became an Eight-Line Subway

The last super bull market (2009-2020) had a "big background":

Global central banks joined forces to inject liquidity, interest rates fell together, and markets rose together.

Now, this highway has split into N branches—by 2023, the Federal Reserve stopped raising interest rates, the European Central Bank cautiously lowered rates, while China, India, and Australia continued to inject liquidity. The Bank for International Settlements stated in its 2025 annual report that differentiated monetary policy has become the biggest "shock source" for cross-border capital flows【Source: BIS Annual Report 2025, Chapter III】.

If you are still using the logic of "global easing is a bull market, tightening is a bear market," it's like holding tickets for two subway lines and running into a transfer station with eighteen lines. It's dizzying, and you might board the wrong train.

2.3 Bears Aren't Fierce Enough, but Bulls Have Poisonous Fangs

The traditional bull-bear model also has a default setting:

Bear market = high volatility; bull market = low volatility.

But liquidity bubbles have broken this rhythm.

From 2021 to 2022, the U.S. stock market had more than 46 trading days with intraday volatility exceeding 2%, more than double that of previous bull markets. By the first quarter of 2024, Bitcoin rose 70% after the ETF launch, yet the 30-day volatility dropped below 25%—completely following the "low volatility, fast rise" script of the Eagle market.

2.4 Four Blows: Striking the Bull-Bear Model

The past bull-bear model was built on the premise of clear trends, orderly volatility, and expected regression. But today's market has long derailed.

The sideways range has turned into a "Wolf Valley": in 2023, the prices of the S&P 500 and Bitcoin repeatedly swept losses within a ±10% narrow range. J.P. Morgan data shows that between March and July alone, there were 17 instances of 1.5% false breakouts, and trend traders were ground down to "metal shavings."

Rebalancing strategies have turned into self-harm: BlackRock reports that passive funds now account for 54% of the free-floating market value of U.S. stocks, and these funds mechanically adjust quarterly, but due to liquidity exhaustion, they bring about huge slippage. By the end of 2023, a single weight adjustment in the Nasdaq evaporated $18 billion in one day.

In an event-driven era, mean reversion has been shattered: a single tweet or regulatory signal can cause market tremors. In June 2024, the SEC's re-examination of Ethereum's security status caused ETH to plummet 12% in a day, only to recover half of it two days later.

Professional funds are voting with their feet: according to HFR, the AUM of global trend-following funds has shrunk by one-third since its peak in 2015, while multi-strategy and market-neutral funds have expanded against the trend, indicating that old-fashioned "bull-bear believers" have exited, and the market is welcoming the era of "Wolf and Eagle hunters."

2.5 Summary

The bull-bear model is not wrong; it was simply born in an era with simpler logic: at that time, correlations were singular, volatility was regular, and policies were synchronous.

But today's market is like a spilled palette:

Differences in central bank paths, liquidity distortions, fragmented news, and nonlinear feedback from algorithmic trading… have turned this candlestick chart into a full spectrum of red, orange, yellow, green, cyan, blue, and purple.

If you continue to view this market through a black-and-white filter, you are bound to misjudge the wind direction and miss the rhythm at critical points.

Embracing "Wolf" and "Eagle" is not about curiosity; it's about returning to reality.

Next time someone asks you, "Is the bull market about to end?" perhaps you should first ask: "Is it a Wolf wind, an Eagle flow, or a Bear tide?"

Because only when you know the answer can your strategy have direction.

3. New Model × Crypto Pockets: MMI's On-Chain Practice

We have seen that the bull-bear model is no longer sufficient; the market needs a more segmented "climatology." But with a more precise map, the next question is: how to dress appropriately and keep the right rhythm in this four-season rotating on-chain environment?

This is where the MMI strategy (Multi-Modal Investing) comes into play.

MMI is an asset allocation model based on a market state-matching strategy portfolio, initially used in traditional assets' four-quadrant environment. Now, it has been adapted to the blockchain, with the core idea unchanged, only the equipment has shifted from stocks, bonds, and volatility funds to stablecoins, perpetual contracts, liquidity mining, and high-beta tokens.

We break it down into four "pockets," so when a market event occurs, you know which weapon to pull out.

3.1 Prepare Four On-Chain Pockets

3.1.1 Bear Market Pocket: Stablecoins + On-Chain Short Bonds

Scenario characteristics: BTC/ETH has retreated over 20% from its peak, frequent on-chain liquidations, and liquidity exhaustion.

Stablecoins are your cash reserves. Looking back at the week of the FTX collapse in 2022, the trading volume of USDT/USDC once accounted for 81% of the entire network, 15 percentage points higher than usual (data source: Kaiko Research). That week, whoever held "stablecoins" could pick up gold everywhere.

On-chain U.S. Treasury bonds allow you to sleep soundly in the eye of the storm. Tokenized short bond products like OUSG from Ondo Finance bring 5% U.S. Treasury interest on-chain, appearing exceptionally calm during days when BTC's annualized volatility exceeds 60%.

Hedging "gold" tokens truly withstand panic. For example, PAXG: during the three major sell-off cycles from 2020 to 2024, its correlation with BTC remained stable between -0.3 and -0.4, making it a genuine on-chain counter-cyclical asset.

3.1.2 Bull Market Pocket: Long-Term Holding + Staking Reinvestment

Scenario characteristics: BTC and ETH continue to rise, with active on-chain addresses, TVL, and stablecoin inflows blooming in multiple areas.

BTC and ETH are the most stable "dual kings Beta" in a bull market. CoinShares data shows that from 2025 to now, Bitcoin alone has attracted a net inflow of $6.2 billion into crypto funds, accounting for 54% of all inflows. The fruits of a long bull market still grow on these two trees.

Staking is the "dividend reinvestment" of an on-chain bull market. LBTC (Lombard), weETH, and stETH not only enjoy price increases but also continue to compound. You don't need to frequently adjust your positions to "profit while you sleep."

3.1.3 Wolf Market Pocket: Opportunistic Arbitrage + Market Neutral Strategies + Selling Volatility as King

Scenario characteristics: Prices oscillate repeatedly within a ±10% range, with frequent false breakouts, and the market "cannot find direction."

Engage in basis/funding fee arbitrage, picking up shells as volatility "recedes." In Q2 2023, the annualized basis between BTC spot and perpetual contracts reached 8-12%. You only need to go long on the spot and short the perp, earning a stable 2-3% directional profit each month.

Provide liquidity on Uniswap v3. Use BTC-ETH within a 10% narrow range and lock Delta with perpetual contracts, achieving an annualized fee income of 25-35% (data: DeFiLlama).

In a Wolf market, it's not about betting on direction but about collecting "gold coins from the dust."

3.1.4 Eagle Market Pocket: Concentrated Attack + Leveraged Perpetual + High-Beta Public Chains

Scenario characteristics: Volatility suddenly drops, prices rise along the 30-day moving average, soaring almost without looking back.

Leverage is the "rocket capsule" for capturing an Eagle market. In Q1 2025, 2x leveraged BTC saw a three-month increase of 142%, while spot BTC only rose 70% during the same period.

High-beta public chains are the "on-chain NVIDIA" of the new cycle. Solana is one of the more promising ones after ETH.

Note that in an Eagle market, it's not about casting a wide net to catch fish; it's about selecting the right rocket and holding on tight as it flies.

3.2 Personal Practice: Three Steps to Equip MMI in Your On-Chain Wallet

Step One: Equip the Four "Crypto Pockets"

Bear Market Pocket: USDC/DAI + TBILL tokens + PAXG
Bull Market Pocket: BTC + ETH (long-term holding + staking)
Wolf Market Pocket: perp basis arbitrage + AMM delta-neutral LP
Eagle Market Pocket: BTC/ETH/SOL leveraged perpetual or 2x ETF

Each pocket should account for 25%.

Step Two: Set "Autopilot Logic"

Try not to move the configurations of the bear and bull pockets; buy inversely during market panic.

The wolf pocket can be semi-automated: for example, liquidity mining with BTC-ETH on the Base chain; perp arbitrage recommends BTC and ETH, focusing only on low-risk varieties.

Control two things in the eagle pocket: leverage should not exceed 3x, and only select core assets with long-term story support, such as BTC, ETH, and SOL.

Step Three: Adjust Positions with "Scissors" Instead of a "Hammer"

The recommended fluctuation range for pocket weights is 15% to 35%;

Adjust only 5-10% at a time to reduce misjudgment and execution costs.

This configuration is like your "wardrobe" for on-chain investments:

Whether it's a Wolf wind blowing, an Eagle flow surging, or a Bear tide attacking, you always have four sets of "protective gear" suitable for the weather.

Market conditions can be unpredictable, but the rhythm can be stable. MMI does not predict the market; it accompanies you through it.

The above is just a rough operational logic; I will detail it in the "Alpha Daii" knowledge community.

Conclusion | Investing is Not About Predicting the Future, but Being Prepared to Face All Futures

Let me conclude this topic with a personal experience.

In April of this year, when Bitcoin fell below $80,000, the market was in a panic. I didn't predict where the bottom would be, nor did I dare to guarantee it would rebound immediately. But I used the $10,000 in stablecoins from my "bear pocket" to open a 3x leveraged BTC-ETH liquidity mining position. Today, it has turned into $31,000, with returns exceeding 300%.

I wrote a detailed operational breakdown in the "Alpha Daii" knowledge community, which you can check out if you're interested. But the key point I want to make is not "I made money," but rather:

I didn't win this bet through prediction; I won it through preparation.

The market is not a one-way street; it is a city with rotating seasons.

If your mind only has "bull market" and "bear market," then at every corner, you can only rely on guessing:

Guess right and it's "locking in profits at a high," guess wrong and it's "regret."

But if you have prepared a seasonal wardrobe for yourself in advance—down jackets for bears, windbreakers for wolves, running shoes for eagles, and short sleeves for bulls—then no matter how fierce the volatility, it is merely a seasonal change.

The "four-pocket thinking" of MMI is not mysticism, nor a flashy strategy platter; it is a way of life.

Its essence:

Transforming the high-pressure decision of "Should I sell now?" into the daily rhythm of "What should I wear today?"

True investment experts are never prophets of the market but rather stewards of their own emotions and positions.

In the crypto world, your "pockets" may hold stablecoins, staking yields, arbitrage bots, and leveraged perpetuals; in traditional markets, they may be cash, short bonds, low-volatility strategies, or momentum ETFs.

What you need to do is never to predict the market but to:

Set up your four pockets, write your own rulebook, and periodically use "scissors" to make minor adjustments to your position ratios.

Because seasons will change, the sun will rise, but you must ensure:

You have an umbrella when it rains, clothes when it’s windy, arrows when it peaks, and shields when it’s sideways.

------ The rest is up to the market and time.