Regrettable market行情

At the end of the article the day before yesterday, a reader left a message:

"This round can only be described as almost a collapse. The previous round of meme and DeFi markets goes without saying, with a bunch of hundredfold coins from low to high, and even in exchanges, there were large-cap coins like ETH that rose from 80 in 2018 to 4500 in 2021, an increase of more than 50 times. However, this round starting from the lows of 2022 has seen almost no coin reach a 50-fold increase, not even a new high. As we approach mid-2025, most altcoins are still at low levels. If this continues until BTC also turns to decline, it will be a blow to everyone."

This message immediately stirred up many memories for me.

Although the viewpoints and data expressed in this message may seem quite "negative" and "bleak," many of the statements are very close to the truth.

For example, I agree with the viewpoint that "this round can only be described as almost a collapse."

Why do I say this round is almost a "collapse"?

Because it really cannot be compared to the brilliance of the previous round.

The message mentioned two ecosystems: meme and DeFi; in fact, what was even more exciting was the explosion of NFTs that followed these two ecosystems.

The explosion of ecosystems is one aspect; what’s more interesting is the timing of the explosions of these ecosystems. If we connect the timelines of these ecosystem explosions, we can clearly depict the magnificent picture of the previous market.

I remember that the MEME (shitcoin) ecosystem exploded relatively early, followed by DeFi.

For a period after the explosion of these two ecosystems, the increase in Ethereum was still not significant, and it had not yet broken through its previous high.

Then, when Ethereum broke through the previous high of the last round, MEME and DeFi continued to explode, attracting more users to rush into the crypto ecosystem.

After that, especially after the significant drop on May 19, MEME and DeFi calmed down and began to decline, while the NFT ecosystem started to take over and explode.

Unlike other ecosystems, the pricing unit of NFT assets is not USDC/USDT, but Ethereum. So, when NFTs continuously reached new highs, it meant that assets priced in Ethereum were constantly reaching new highs. This created a stronger leverage effect compared to MEME and DeFi priced in USDC/USDT.

Therefore, in the previous market, if investors had been buying Ethereum at low levels before these ecosystems exploded, even if they missed out on MEME and DeFi, as long as they could seize the NFT market, they would still achieve good returns— the profits they gained from NFTs would have a leverage effect that other ecosystems completely lacked.

That kind of prosperity was both quantitative—multiple ecosystems emerged one after another—and qualitative—each ecosystem generated a powerful "wealth creation" effect.

So what we saw was a flourishing scene with everything in full bloom, competing for brilliance.

I estimate that the number of new users attracted into the circle by the previous round of ecological prosperity even exceeded the number of new users attracted by ICOs in the earlier round.

Such a splendid scene is gone and has not returned; it is completely absent in this round.

Although there is also a boom in the meme ecosystem this round, their taste and effect cannot be compared to the shitcoins and PEOPLE of the previous round.

Although there are a few DeFi tokens rising this round, they cannot form a scale or ecological effect.

Although there is also a resurgence of the Fat Penguin in the NFT ecosystem this round, I still feel it is like the last rays of the setting sun. In terms of ecosystems, the overall situation is still struggling.

As for the AI + Crypto that I have been closely monitoring, at least up to now, I can only say to continue waiting and observing.

Originally, I thought this might be an accident in this round of the market, but after reading the memoir of the popular investor "Retail Investor B" on Xueqiu recently, I realized that this is not an "accident" at all, but an inevitability that occurs in any investment ecosystem.

Because the A-shares, which were once despised by the masses, also experienced such a splendid scene in the early years.

In the early 1990s, when there were only dozens or hundreds of stocks, the situation that A-share investors saw was almost identical to the previous round of crypto:

As long as it was a stock, regardless of the company's quality, as long as investors could hold on, even if it was a crash, it could shine again and reach new highs.

This situation did not change until the late 1990s, as the A-share market grew larger, the number of stocks increased, and the market capitalization rose, leading to a qualitative change—no longer could one buy anything and see it rise, or buy anything and make a profit.

The U.S. stock market has long been like this: only technology companies with substantial profits and promising prospects see their stock prices soar, while a large number of hopeless and worthless companies remain stagnant for a long time.

I believe that this round of the crypto ecosystem represents a turning point.

Starting from this round of the market, it will be difficult for the future crypto ecosystem to see a significant rise in altcoins again. The projects that can truly rise will gradually return to fundamentals and value foundations.

As for the statement "if this continues until BTC also turns to decline, it will be a blow to everyone," I think this is an inevitable process of refining the essential from the trivial—both for the projects and for the investors.

If one holds valuable projects, they can completely ignore this decline; if one still fantasizes that the worthless projects they hold can rise again, then this indeed would be a disaster.