Morning Report | The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points this week reaches 96.4%; USDT market cap surpasses 170 billion USD, continuing to set new highs
Overview of Important Market Events on September 14整理：Zhou，ChainCatcher
Important News:
- The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points this week reaches 96.4%
- Messari: Bitcoin's current daily transaction fee income is less than $500,000, hitting a multi-year low
- Data: USDT market cap surpasses $170 billion, setting a new record
- The State Council approves the implementation plan for the pilot comprehensive reform of market-oriented allocation of factors in some regions, planning to explore blockchain green asset trading in southern Jiangsu
- Analysis: Traditional finance's allocation to Bitcoin is expected to increase, and the proportion of crypto investment in Q4 may rise
- Tether issues an additional 1 billion USDT on the Ethereum network
What important events happened in the past 24 hours?
According to ChainCatcher, Messari's corporate research manager stated on platform X that despite Bitcoin's price reaching new highs this year, its network activity has plummeted. Currently, Bitcoin's daily transaction fee income is less than $500,000 (annualized at $179 million), the lowest level since the emergence of Ordinals and Runes.
Trump: Expects the Federal Reserve to significantly cut interest rates
According to ChainCatcher, market news indicates that Hyperliquid's validator community has selected Native Markets to receive the long-reserved USDH trading code. This week-long competition attracted many giants in the stablecoin and cryptocurrency infrastructure sectors.
In the announcement post, Native Markets stated that it will immediately launch a phased rollout plan, starting with small-scale minting and redemption testing, followed by the opening of the USDH/USDC spot trading pair, and finally lifting the limits. The team views the limits as a safety check before full rollout and stated that related activities should "start within days."
The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points this week reaches 96.4%
According to ChainCatcher, reports from Jinshi show that CME's "Fed Watch" indicates a 96.4% probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points this week, with a 3.6% probability of a 50 basis point cut. Additionally, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut in October is 16%, a 50 basis point cut is 81%, and a 75 basis point cut is 3%.
Michael Saylor releases Bitcoin Tracker information again, possibly hinting at another BTC purchase
According to ChainCatcher, Strategy founder Michael Saylor has released Bitcoin Tracker information again, stating, "Bitcoin is commendable." Following previous patterns, Strategy always discloses information about increasing Bitcoin holdings the day after related news is released.
According to ChainCatcher, Ethereum treasury company ETHZilla stated on platform X that it currently holds 102,240 ETH, with approximately $100 million allocated for ether.fi related collaborations for ETH re-staking, while also utilizing the existing $80 million for continuous stock buybacks. ETHZilla added that the company has the right to buy back stocks for up to $250 million.
Data: USDT market cap surpasses $170 billion, setting a new record
According to ChainCatcher, Coingecko data shows that the USDT stablecoin issued by Tether has surpassed a market cap of $170 billion, currently reaching $170,347,635,793, setting a new historical high, with a trading volume of $76,500,625,423 in the past 24 hours.
Monero suffers another attack and experiences block reorganization
According to ChainCatcher, SlowMist's Yu Xian revealed on platform X that Monero has suffered another attack, with XMR experiencing a reorganization of 18 blocks. Yu Xian stated, "If the Monero community does not take the block reorganization issue seriously, the sword of Damocles will always hang over Monero… It may not necessarily lead to a double-spending attack, but the capability exists… It doesn't have to strictly exceed 51% of the hash rate…"
SUI Group: The board has authorized the launch of a new $50 million stock buyback plan
According to ChainCatcher, Cointelegraph reports that Pakistan has recently invited international crypto companies to allow exchanges and virtual asset service providers (VASPs) to apply for operating licenses under the new federal regulatory framework. It is reported that the Pakistan Virtual Asset Regulatory Authority (PVARA) requires applying companies to have obtained licenses from recognized regulatory bodies, such as the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the UK's Financial Conduct Authority, the EU VASPs framework, the UAE Virtual Asset Regulatory Authority, and the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
According to ChainCatcher, the Shanxi Provincial Office for the Prevention and Control of Illegal Fundraising issued a risk warning regarding illegal financial activities disguised as investments in "RWA" and other names, stating that if any clues are found indicating suspected illegal financial activities under the guise of investing in "RWA," "stablecoins," etc., please report them promptly, or report to the local municipal or county departments responsible for preventing and combating illegal financial activities or the public security department. If you have unfortunately been scammed, please immediately stop investing any funds, retain evidence such as chat records, transfer receipts, contracts, etc., and report to the local public security agency for professional assistance.
According to ChainCatcher, Wall Street veteran and macro analyst Jordi Visser stated in an interview with digital asset investor Anthony Pompliano that from now until the end of the year, traditional finance's allocation to Bitcoin will increase, and it is expected that the proportion of institutional cryptocurrency investment in Q4 will rise in preparation for next year. Jordi Visser also expressed optimism about Ethereum's development, noting that the current ETH price is consolidating between $4,000 and $5,000. Once Ethereum truly breaks through and succeeds, the entire ecosystem will operate, meaning DOGE will operate, and SUI will also operate.
Data: pump.fun has repurchased over $92 million worth of PUMP
According to ChainCatcher, data from fee.pump.fun shows that since starting to repurchase PUMP on July 15, pump.fun has repurchased approximately $92.43 million worth of PUMP tokens, reducing the total circulating supply by 6.505%.
According to ChainCatcher, Jia Yueting stated that CXC10 will operate independently and raise funds, aiming to become a Web3 company listed in the U.S. The core value of CXC10 will still be integrated into Faraday Future (FFAI), and the growth of cryptocurrency will not dilute the value of Faraday Future, with both flywheels operating independently yet promoting each other.
Yala: The protocol recently encountered an attack, but all user assets remain unaffected
According to ChainCatcher, Yala stated on platform X that the protocol recently encountered an attack that briefly affected the anchoring of YU. With the assistance of security partners such as SlowMist, the issue has been identified, and improvement measures are being implemented to enhance system performance. The official emphasized that all user assets are safe and unaffected.
According to ChainCatcher, Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua tweeted that "the rotation law has begun. After ETH leads, mainstream coins like SOL and BNB will follow, and finally, a quality altcoin season will definitely start. In the last bull market, many projects worth billions of dollars emerged, and this time it will be the same or even crazier. I hope innovative entrepreneurs will seize this opportunity and not let down the 6 billion people in the new era of finance on the blockchain."
According to ChainCatcher, Taizhou's internet police public account announced a "high-interest financial management" scam. Victim Jin met a "net friend" online, who lured him into a fake investment platform with the bait of "guaranteed high-interest financial management." Initial small deposits and successful withdrawals made Jin believe in the platform's reliability and attractive returns. Subsequently, the scammers falsely claimed that the platform's "RMB channel was closed," requiring Jin to convert cash into the virtual currency "U Coin" to continue "investing" or withdrawing "profits." Under the manipulation of phrases like "limited-time recharge for higher profits" and "withdrawal requires a huge deposit," Jin continuously invested large amounts of cash and even borrowed money from friends to keep investing, ultimately being scammed out of over 6 million yuan.
Tether issues an additional 1 billion USDT on the Ethereum network
According to ChainCatcher, whale_alert monitoring shows that Tether has just issued an additional 1 billion USDT on the Ethereum network.
Derive co-founder proposes to increase the DRV token supply by 50%
According to ChainCatcher, The Block reports that Derive co-founder Nick Forster has proposed to expand the supply of its native DRV token for the on-chain options exchange to retain core contributors and reach agreements with institutional partners. The proposal calls for minting 500 million DRV tokens, increasing the supply by 50%, and allocating these tokens to the Derive Foundation (which will be renamed to Lyra Foundation). Forster stated that according to the proposal's estimates, existing holders' tokens will be diluted by up to 8.25% annually over four years.
Meme Hot List
According to data from the meme token tracking and analysis platform GMGN, as of September 15, 09:25,
The top five popular ETH tokens in the past 24 hours are: weETH, BITDOGE, T3, USAT, CAPE
The top five popular Solana tokens in the past 24 hours are: ClipPump, LILPEPE, CREAT KIRK, PUMP, Bagwork
The top five popular Base tokens in the past 24 hours are: ZORA, EURC, Polyfactual, Oharlie, R
What are some must-read articles from the past 24 hours?
In 1979, Republic National Bank offered customers a choice. Deposit $1,475 for 3.5 years and receive a 17-inch color television; or deposit the same amount for 5.5 years and receive a 25-inch television. Want a better deal? Just deposit $950 for 5.5 years and receive a sound system with built-in disco lights.
During the Great Depression, banking regulations prohibited banks from paying competitive interest rates, and banks competed for deposits in this way. The Q clause of the Banking Act enacted in 1933 prohibited banks from paying interest on demand deposits and set a cap on interest rates for savings accounts. Although money market funds offered higher yields, banks could only give away toasters and televisions instead of actual returns.
The banking industry referred to money market fund investors as "smart money," while calling their own depositors "dumb money," believing they did not understand that higher returns could be obtained elsewhere.
Data reveals 335 Binance Alpha tokens: Is the "altcoin season" really here?
With the surge of multiple Binance Alpha tokens, discussions about the altcoin season led by Binance Alpha have resurfaced.
Many users are discussing on social media what kind of logic could be a potential wealth code. However, this so-called altcoin season is actually just a cognitive bias triggered by a few "explosive" projects. If we are to find commonalities among these wealth codes, what conditions among the Binance Alpha tokens could lead the market?
PANews conducted a comprehensive data analysis of the 335 tokens launched on Binance Alpha, exploring their true wealth codes from multiple dimensions such as market cap, chain distribution, trading pair types, and whether they were airdropped, and probing into the ultimate question: Is the so-called Binance Alpha "altcoin season" really here?
Virtual asset venture capital loosens its grip: Is spring coming for Korean crypto startups?
After seven years, Korean virtual asset companies have finally regained their "venture enterprise" status, allowing them to enjoy support such as venture capital, technology guarantees, and policy financing as technology-based startups and growth companies.
The opening of the door for crypto companies was facilitated by the amendment to the "Implementation Regulations of the Special Law on the Cultivation of Venture Enterprises," passed by the Ministry of SMEs and Startups and the Cabinet on September 9. This amendment removes "blockchain/virtual asset (cryptocurrency) trading and brokerage" from the list of restricted/prohibited industries and will officially take effect on September 16.
Academics make a comeback: Small-town professor Waller becomes the hottest candidate for Fed Chair
On the morning of September 12, Beijing time, the U.S. federal funds rate market sent a clear signal: the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points at this month's meeting has reached 93.9%. After five consecutive "hold" decisions, the market has finally welcomed a directional shift in monetary policy. Meanwhile, another gamble related to the Fed's direction over the next two years is quietly advancing: who will succeed Powell as the next Fed Chair?
On the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket, as of the same day, current Fed Governor Christopher Waller leads with a 30% probability, ahead of two other "Kevin faction" competitors—Hassett (16%) and Walsh (15%). However, the market also retains a more dramatic possibility: the probability that "Trump will not announce a successor before the end of the year" remains the highest at 41%.
This series of data indicates that the market is simultaneously betting on two directions: one is the consensus path of rate cuts, and the other is the still uncertain contest for the monetary helmsman. And between these two, Waller's name repeatedly appears in various trading perspectives and policy games.
Risk warning
Risk warning
