Gemini opened high on its first day of trading but fell back, and the crypto IPO boom following Circle is no longer

Original Title: "Gemini's First Day Surge Followed by Sharp Decline, Circle's Crypto Concept IPO Craze Fades"
Original Source: Odaily Planet Daily jk

The cryptocurrency trading platform Gemini officially listed on the Nasdaq on September 12, with the stock code GEMI, marking the realization of the listing dream that the Winklevoss twins have pursued for many years. However, the initial market enthusiasm was quickly dampened by the reality of financial data, as the stock price rapidly fell back after a frenzied rise on the opening day, revealing that the company's fundamentals had not won the confidence of retail investors in the U.S. stock market.

A Long Road to Listing: From $7.1 Billion Valuation to IPO

Gemini's path to listing has been fraught with challenges. Founded by Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss in 2014, the cryptocurrency trading platform began preparing for its IPO several years ago. Reports indicate that the company spent about three years preparing for the IPO, but due to unfavorable market conditions and a weak IPO environment, it had to postpone its listing plans twice, first to mid-2024 and then to April 2025.

During the cryptocurrency bull market at the end of 2021, Gemini achieved a valuation of $7.1 billion in a funding round, but the subsequent crash of the cryptocurrency market in 2022, including the collapse of its Earn product and the bankruptcy of its partner Genesis, forced Gemini into a contraction mode. It wasn't until mid-2025, with improved market sentiment and clearer regulatory conditions, that the company restarted its listing plans.

In June of this year, Gemini secretly submitted its IPO application to the SEC, joining the listing wave of cryptocurrency companies like Circle and Bullish. Ultimately, after months of preparation and roadshows, the company chose to go public on Nasdaq through a traditional IPO.

Relatively speaking, Gemini's listing did not create much of a stir in the cryptocurrency circle; partly because it focuses on the U.S. domestic market, and the founding brothers are prominent figures in cryptocurrency-related meetings involving President Trump. Additionally, Gemini's approach to listing was more "quietly entering the village," resulting in far less anticipation compared to the rising star Bullish.

From Frenzy to Calm: The Stock Price Journey

Gemini's IPO pricing underwent several adjustments, with the initial price range set at $17-19, which was later raised to $24-26 due to strong demand, and finally priced at $28, at the top of the adjusted range. This pricing reflects strong market demand for the stock, with Reuters reporting a subscription multiple exceeding 20 times, indicating investors' enthusiasm for the concept of a U.S. domestic cryptocurrency trading platform.

However, the performance on the opening day was quite dramatic, with a rollercoaster-like trajectory bringing the stock price back to reality. The stock began trading at 1:40 PM, immediately jumping to $37.01, about a 32% increase from the IPO price. In the early trading, the stock price even surged to $45.89, a 64% increase, triggering a volatility trading halt. Subsequently, the initial frenzy was quickly replaced by rationality: by the end of the day, the stock price fell back to $32, narrowing the increase to about 14%.

Even more concerning was the performance in the following days: by September 16, the GEMI stock price had dropped to around $30.42, down about 6% on that day, representing a nearly 24% decline from its peak since listing. This sharp pullback reflects, to some extent, investors' re-evaluation of the company's fundamentals.

So what are the reasons for their reassessment?

Harsh Financial Reality

Gemini's financial performance is quite concerning, which is a major reason for the stock price decline. According to SEC filings, the company recorded $68.6 million in revenue in the first half of 2025, a 7.7% decrease compared to $74.3 million in the same period last year. More seriously, the net loss reached $283 million, far exceeding the $41.4 million loss in the same period last year, with a year-on-year increase in losses of 580%. Moreover, the first half of this year was not a bear market; thus, a major question from investors is, where did the money go?

This trend of deteriorating performance is deeply concerning. From a longer-term perspective, Gemini's total revenue for 2024 is projected to be $142.2 million, a year-on-year increase of 44.8%, but the net loss is still expected to reach $158.5 million. (In other words, the first half of this year has already exceeded the total loss of last year); for the 12-month period ending June 30, 2025, the company's revenue was $136.45 million, indicating that revenue growth has stagnated.

Analysts point out that Gemini currently relies heavily on trading fee income, which accounts for about 70% of total revenue in 2024. The surge in losses in the first half of 2025 is mainly attributed to special expenses related to the Genesis bankruptcy case and the Earn project, including legal fees, debt interest, and asset impairments.

Despite the poor financial data, Gemini still shows some growth momentum in operational metrics. In the first half of 2025, the number of monthly active trading users reached 523,000, an increase from 497,000 in the same period last year. Trading volume also surged from $16.6 billion in the same period last year to $24.8 billion, an increase of nearly 50%. As of July 31, 2025, the number of monthly trading users further increased to 549,000.

Comparison with Bullish: Different Fates of Concurrent Listings

Gemini's listing closely follows the footsteps of other cryptocurrency companies, particularly contrasting sharply with Bullish, which just listed on the New York Stock Exchange about a month ago. Bullish is a digital asset platform focused on institutional clients, led by former NYSE president Tom Farley, and backed by well-known investors such as Peter Thiel, BlackRock, and ARK Invest. Its IPO performance set a positive tone for the entire cryptocurrency IPO market.

From the opening day performance, both companies experienced a frenzied rise. Bullish completed its IPO on August 13 at a price of $37, raising about $1.1 billion, with an IPO valuation of approximately $5.4 billion. On the opening day, the stock price immediately jumped to $90, a 143% increase, with an intraday high of $118, exceeding a 200% increase, far surpassing Gemini's highest increase of 64% on its first day. Bullish's closing price on the first day was $68, up 84%, also showing strong performance.

However, both companies have experienced nearly identical trends in subsequent performance. By mid-September, Bullish's stock price had fallen to around $51, down about 56% from its peak, with a current market capitalization of approximately $7.8 billion. This degree of pullback is more severe compared to Gemini's 24% decline, indicating that even stronger performing cryptocurrency IPOs struggle to maintain initial market enthusiasm.

In terms of market capitalization comparison, the gap between the two is quite evident. Gemini achieved an initial market capitalization of about $3.3 billion with an IPO price of $28, and its current stock price of about $30 corresponds to a market capitalization of approximately $3.8 billion. In contrast, Bullish's IPO valuation of $5.4 billion and its current market capitalization of about $7.8 billion significantly exceed Gemini, demonstrating a considerable degree of latecomer advantage.

Horizontal Comparison with Coinbase and Kraken: Huge Gaps in Industry Competition Landscape

Comparing Gemini with its main competitors, the differences in scale and profitability are shocking. As the largest publicly traded cryptocurrency trading platform in the U.S., Coinbase far surpasses Gemini in all metrics.

In terms of revenue scale, Coinbase's revenue in the first half of 2025 was approximately $3.53 billion, with $2.03 billion in the first quarter and $1.5 billion in the second quarter. This figure is 51 times Gemini's $68.6 million revenue during the same period, fully showcasing the vast gap between the two. Even more impressively, Coinbase achieved a net profit of $1.43 billion in the second quarter, with earnings per share of $5.14, while Gemini remains mired in losses.

The gap is equally evident in trading volume. Coinbase's retail trading volume in the second quarter was $43 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16%, far exceeding Gemini's total trading volume of $24.8 billion in the first half of 2025. Coinbase's subscription and service revenue reached $655.8 million in the second quarter, which is close to Gemini's total annual revenue level.

The privately held Kraken trading platform also performs impressively, significantly outpacing Gemini in both scale and profitability. In the first half of 2025, Kraken recorded $884 million in revenue, with $472 million in the first quarter and $412 million in the second quarter, representing year-on-year growth of 19% and 18%, respectively. This revenue scale is 13 times that of Gemini, demonstrating Kraken's strong position in the market.

More importantly, Kraken maintains healthy profitability. Adjusted EBITDA reached $187 million in the first quarter and $80 million in the second quarter, totaling approximately $267 million for the first half of the year. In contrast, Gemini not only has a smaller scale but also faces immense pressure from significant losses.

From a historical financial data perspective, this trend of disparity becomes even more pronounced. Coinbase's total revenue for 2024 reached $6.56 billion, a year-on-year increase of 111%, with a net profit of $2.58 billion and a profit margin of 41%. The company successfully transitioned from a net loss of $2.6 billion in 2022 to substantial profitability, showcasing strong cyclical recovery capabilities. Kraken's revenue for 2024 reached $1.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 128%, with adjusted EBITDA of $424 million. The company maintained a near break-even state during the cryptocurrency winter of 2022-2023, with only a $1.8 million loss in 2022, and rapidly achieved strong profit growth as the market recovered in 2024.

In contrast, Gemini only achieved $142.2 million in revenue in 2024, with a net loss of $158.5 million. Furthermore, the company's performance in the first half of 2025 further deteriorated, raising doubts about whether it can maintain its position as the third-largest domestic trading platform in the U.S. Comparatively, Gemini seems to treat its listing as a last resort.

As of June 2025, the company's cash balance was only $42.8 million, while short-term debt reached approximately $680 million, indicating a very tight asset-liability structure. This financial situation partly explains why the company urgently needs to raise funds through an IPO to improve its capital structure.

The Divergence Trend of Cryptocurrency IPOs

Gemini's listing is an important part of the cryptocurrency IPO craze in 2025. In a more favorable regulatory environment, several cryptocurrency companies have chosen to go public in 2025. In addition to Gemini and Bullish, stablecoin issuer Circle also successfully completed its IPO in June, with its stock price "soaring" on the first day, setting a positive precedent for the entire industry.

However, Gemini's performance represents a clear divergence in the market. While improvements in the regulatory environment, increased institutional adoption, and inflows from Bitcoin ETFs have provided positive support for the entire industry, investors are evidently favoring companies that have already achieved profitability or are close to it.

Compass Point analyst Ed Engel pointed out that GEMI's current trading price is equivalent to 26 times its annualized revenue for the first half of the year. For a loss-making company in a highly volatile industry, such a valuation multiple is indeed high, which may be a significant reason for investors' cautious attitude and the stock price pullback.

Future Outlook: Kraken Plans to Go Public Next Year

Reports indicate that Kraken is planning to conduct an IPO in 2026, currently seeking $500 million in financing at a valuation of $15 billion to prepare for its eventual listing. This is a company with healthy revenue.

Kraken's co-CEO has stated that the company's IPO strategy relies on the clarity of the regulatory environment. In contrast, Gemini chose to go public in the current regulatory environment, which to some extent carries the risks of being a pioneer.

From a broader industry perspective, Gemini's listing experience highlights the maturation trend of the cryptocurrency trading platform industry. Investors are no longer satisfied with concepts and growth stories; they are increasingly focused on actual profitability and sustainable business models. This trend may drive the entire industry towards a greater emphasis on operational efficiency and profitability.

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