Cryptocurrency Market Performance

Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $3.78 trillion, with BTC accounting for 57.8%, which is $2.18 trillion. The market cap of stablecoins is $297.2 billion, with a 7-day increase of 1.58%. For the first time in three months, there has been a weekly data decline, with USDT accounting for 58.65%.

Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most have declined while a few have risen, including: ASTER with a 7-day increase of 117.01%, XPL with a 7-day increase of 64.59%, SNX with a 7-day increase of 73.35%, MERL with a 7-day increase of 58.95%, and AVNT with a 7-day increase of 49.11%.

This week, the net outflow from U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs was $897 million; the net outflow from U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs was $795 million.

Market Forecast (September 29 - October 3):

The current RSI index is 44.59, indicating neutrality. The Fear and Greed Index is at 32 (indicating fear), marking the first entry into the fear zone since February this year, with the altcoin season index at 71.

BTC core range: $105,000-115,000

ETH core range: $3700-4100

SOL core range: $191-210

Short-term trading (1-3 days): The current market is at a critical technical point, and short-term volatility may increase. The strategy is to remain cautiously observant.

Mid-term layout (several weeks): Pay attention to macro fundamentals, such as Federal Reserve policy trends and U.S. PCE inflation data. If BTC can hold the key support at $115,500, it may still challenge new highs in the mid-term.

Long-term investment (months or more): Institutional demand (such as continuous capital inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs) and the global liquidity environment remain core supports. A strategy of accumulating in batches during dips can be adopted.

Understanding Now

Review of Major Events of the Week

1. On September 23, according to market news, DTCC (Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation) listed the 21Shares Dogecoin ETF with the trading code TDOG. Although this move does not indicate that the ETF has received any regulatory approval or any clear approval process results, listing on the DTCC website is part of the "standard process" for launching new ETFs.

2. On September 23, UXLINK's official announcement stated that a security vulnerability involving its multi-signature wallet had been discovered, resulting in a large amount of cryptocurrency being illegally transferred to CEX and DEX. The team is working with security experts to identify the cause and control the situation, has contacted trading platforms to freeze suspicious UXLINK deposits, and has reported to the police and relevant authorities to promote legal accountability and asset recovery. UXLINK will continue to provide transparent updates on the latest developments. Previous reports indicated that UXLINK suffered losses exceeding $11 million;

3. On September 24, according to Defillama data, Aster's revenue in the past 24 hours reached $7.04 million, setting a new historical high. It surpassed Hyperliquid ($2.79 million) and is only behind Tether ($21.99 million) and Circle ($7.72 million);

4. The SEC and CFTC will jointly hold a roundtable on September 29 to coordinate cryptocurrency regulatory policies;

5. On September 25, the newly listed coin Griffin AI (GAIN) on Binance Alpha started a one-sided decline at 7:27 AM Beijing time today, dropping over 95% in less than an hour, reaching a low of $0.005, and is currently quoted at $0.00758, with a market cap of only $2.58 million on BSC;

6. On September 25, San Francisco Fed President Daly stated on Wednesday that she "fully supports" the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates last week and mentioned that further rate cuts may be needed in the future.

7. On September 26, U.S. President Trump announced that starting October 1, 2025, a 25% tariff will be imposed on all "heavy trucks" produced in other parts of the world; a 50% tariff will be imposed on all kitchen cabinets, bathroom vanities, and related products. A 30% tariff will be imposed on upholstered furniture; a 100% tariff will be imposed on any brand or patented pharmaceutical products unless the company is establishing its pharmaceutical factory in the U.S.

Macroeconomics

1. On September 25, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending September 20 was 218,000, the lowest since the week of July 19, 2025. The expectation was 235,000, and the previous value was revised from 231,000 to 232,000;

2. On September 26, the U.S. core PCE price index for August was 2.9% year-on-year, with an expectation of 2.90% and a previous value of 2.90%, meeting market expectations. The U.S. core PCE price index for August was 0.2% month-on-month, with an expectation of 0.20%, and the previous value was revised from 0.30% to 0.2%;

3. On September 27, according to the Federal Reserve's interest rate observer, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October is 90.8%.

ETF

According to statistics, from September 22 to September 26, the net outflow from U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs was $897 million; as of September 26, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of $24.118 billion, currently holding $19.272 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $83.706 billion. The total market cap of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs is $144.473 billion.

The net outflow from U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs was $795 million.

Foreseeing the Future

Event Preview

1. TOKEN2049 Singapore 2025 will be held in Singapore from October 1 to 2, 2025;

2. SuiFest will be held on October 2 in Singapore;

3. Blockchain Life 2025 will be held in Dubai, UAE from October 28 to 29, 2025.

Project Progress

1. FTX will conduct the next round of fund distribution on September 30, with the disputed claims reserve reduced by $1.9 billion (from $6.5 billion to $4.3 billion), with the record date set for August 15. This distribution is aimed at eligible claimants, general unsecured claim holders, and previously undistributed convenience claim holders. The distribution will be conducted through three service providers: BitGo, Kraken, and Payoneer;

2. L1 blockchain Kaia (formerly Klaytn) announced that the token swap service for FNSA to KAIA will end on September 30, and all operations of the traditional Finschia chain will also cease;

3. The Arbitrum ecological modular trading platform Kinto will shut down the project, with Kinto wallet and asset withdrawals open until September 30, and the ERA airdrop expected to be distributed on October 15;

4. The TGE registration window for Sei ecological protocol Yei Finance is open until September 30;

5. Starknet will launch BTC staking functionality on the mainnet on September 30, and the un-staking period will be shortened from 21 days to 7 days;

6. SBI Holdings has acquired a majority stake in Web3 media company CoinPost, with the transaction expected to be completed by October 1, 2025.

Important Events

1. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) issued a joint statement announcing that they will jointly hold a roundtable on September 29, potentially discussing coordination areas such as 24/7 markets, prediction markets, perpetual contracts, portfolio margining, innovation exemptions, and DeFi;

2. The UK will trial the main suspect in the laundering case of 60,000 bitcoins, Qian Zhimin, on September 29, 2025. Qian Zhimin (phonetic spelling, alias Zhang Yadi) is the main suspect in the Tianjin Blue Sky Ge Rui 43 billion yuan illegal fundraising case, arrested in April 2024, and charged with two counts of money laundering;

3. Strategy's four preferred stocks will distribute cash dividends on September 30;

4. Tim Scott, chairman of the U.S. Senate Banking Committee, stated that the cryptocurrency market structure bill will be completed before September 30;

5. On September 30, Australia will announce the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision;

6. On October 1 at 20:15, the U.S. will announce the ADP employment numbers for September (in ten thousand);

7. On October 2 at 20:30, the U.S. will announce the initial jobless claims for the week ending September 27 (in ten thousand);

8. On October 3 at 20:30, the U.S. will announce the unemployment rate and seasonally adjusted non-farm payroll numbers for September (in ten thousand).

Token Unlocking

1. Ethena (ENA) will unlock 40.75 million tokens on September 2 at 15:00, valued at approximately $25.92 million, accounting for 0.64% of the circulating supply;

2. IOTA (IOTA) will unlock 15.88 million tokens on September 3 at 8:00, valued at approximately $2.86 million, accounting for 0.42% of the circulating supply;

3. Immutable (IMX) will unlock 24.84 million tokens on September 5 at 8:00, valued at approximately $12.42 million, accounting for 1.277% of the circulating supply;

4. Mocaverse (MOCA) will unlock 2.46 million tokens on September 5 at 8:00, valued at approximately $165,000, accounting for 0.06% of the circulating supply.

About Us

Hotcoin Research, as the core investment research institution of Hotcoin Exchange, is dedicated to transforming professional analysis into your practical tools. We analyze market trends through "Weekly Insights" and "In-depth Research Reports"; leveraging our exclusive column "Hotcoin Selection" (AI + expert dual screening) to identify potential assets and reduce trial-and-error costs. Every week, our researchers will also interact with you through live broadcasts to interpret hot topics and predict trends. We believe that warm companionship and professional guidance can help more investors navigate cycles and seize the value opportunities of Web3.

Risk Warning

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investment itself carries risks. We strongly recommend that investors conduct investments based on a full understanding of these risks and within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of funds.

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