CryptoQuant: The market has not yet fallen into a deep bear phase, with the ultimate bottom around $55,000
On-chain analysis company CryptoQuant indicates that the "ultimate" bottom of the Bitcoin bear market is currently around $55,000, and the formation of a bear market bottom typically takes several months rather than being completed by a single capitulation event. CryptoQuant states that the realized price of Bitcoin has historically been a major support area during bear markets and is likely to represent the final bear market bottom. Currently, the trading price of Bitcoin is still over 25% higher than this level.The company notes that in past bear markets, prices fell below the realized price by 24% after the FTX collapse, and in the 2018 cycle, it dropped by 30%. After reaching these levels, Bitcoin usually requires four to six months to build a bottom. CryptoQuant believes another sign that Bitcoin has not yet reached a structural bottom is the significant single-day realized losses. Data shows that when the Bitcoin price dropped 14% to $62,000, holders recorded an average realized loss of $5.4 billion in a single day, the highest daily loss since March 2023, surpassing the $4.3 billion recorded a few days after the FTX collapse in November 2022.Despite the massive scale of losses, CryptoQuant states that the price bottom has not yet arrived. The monthly cumulative realized losses measured in Bitcoin are still far below the levels corresponding to bear market bottoms, currently at 300,000 BTC, compared to 1.1 million BTC at the end of the bear market in 2022, the report notes. Several key valuation metrics also remain above historical panic sell-off regions. CryptoQuant claims that the MVRV ratio (the ratio of Bitcoin's market value to its realized value) has not yet entered the extremely undervalued range that historically marks bear market bottoms. Similarly, the NUPL metric has not reached the unrealized loss level of about 20% seen in past cycle lows.The behavior of long-term holders has also not reflected complete panic selling. CryptoQuant points out that long-term holders are currently selling at prices close to breakeven, whereas during past bear market bottoms, they endured losses of 30%-40%. Additionally, about 55% of the Bitcoin supply is still in profit, while cycle lows typically fall within the range of 45%-50%. CryptoQuant further states that its bull-bear cycle indicator is currently still in the "bear market phase," rather than the "extreme bear market phase"—the latter historically marks the point at which prices begin to enter a bottoming phase. The company notes that this extreme phase typically lasts for several months, indicating that the formation of a bear market bottom requires time.