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crypto

CryptoQuant: The market has not yet fallen into a deep bear phase, with the ultimate bottom around $55,000

On-chain analysis company CryptoQuant indicates that the "ultimate" bottom of the Bitcoin bear market is currently around $55,000, and the formation of a bear market bottom typically takes several months rather than being completed by a single capitulation event. CryptoQuant states that the realized price of Bitcoin has historically been a major support area during bear markets and is likely to represent the final bear market bottom. Currently, the trading price of Bitcoin is still over 25% higher than this level.The company notes that in past bear markets, prices fell below the realized price by 24% after the FTX collapse, and in the 2018 cycle, it dropped by 30%. After reaching these levels, Bitcoin usually requires four to six months to build a bottom. CryptoQuant believes another sign that Bitcoin has not yet reached a structural bottom is the significant single-day realized losses. Data shows that when the Bitcoin price dropped 14% to $62,000, holders recorded an average realized loss of $5.4 billion in a single day, the highest daily loss since March 2023, surpassing the $4.3 billion recorded a few days after the FTX collapse in November 2022.Despite the massive scale of losses, CryptoQuant states that the price bottom has not yet arrived. The monthly cumulative realized losses measured in Bitcoin are still far below the levels corresponding to bear market bottoms, currently at 300,000 BTC, compared to 1.1 million BTC at the end of the bear market in 2022, the report notes. Several key valuation metrics also remain above historical panic sell-off regions. CryptoQuant claims that the MVRV ratio (the ratio of Bitcoin's market value to its realized value) has not yet entered the extremely undervalued range that historically marks bear market bottoms. Similarly, the NUPL metric has not reached the unrealized loss level of about 20% seen in past cycle lows.The behavior of long-term holders has also not reflected complete panic selling. CryptoQuant points out that long-term holders are currently selling at prices close to breakeven, whereas during past bear market bottoms, they endured losses of 30%-40%. Additionally, about 55% of the Bitcoin supply is still in profit, while cycle lows typically fall within the range of 45%-50%. CryptoQuant further states that its bull-bear cycle indicator is currently still in the "bear market phase," rather than the "extreme bear market phase"—the latter historically marks the point at which prices begin to enter a bottoming phase. The company notes that this extreme phase typically lasts for several months, indicating that the formation of a bear market bottom requires time.

Reuters: US Senator Calls for Foreign Investment Committee to Investigate UAE's Stake in Trump Family's Cryptocurrency Company

According to a report by Reuters, two Democratic senators from the U.S. Senate Banking Committee, Elizabeth Warren and Andy Kim, have written to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, requesting a review of a transaction involving an Emirati entity acquiring a stake in a cryptocurrency company owned by the Trump family.It has been reported that a company under the Emirati national security advisor purchased a 49% stake in World Liberty Financial for $500 million. The two senators are calling for an investigation into whether this transaction poses any national security risks.Warren and Kim are asking Bessent, who is responsible for the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), to determine whether a CFIUS review is necessary for the Emirati acquisition of the 49% stake in World Liberty Financial, and if so, to conduct a comprehensive, thorough, and fair investigation. They have requested that Bessent respond to several questions by March 5, including whether CFIUS has reviewed the transaction in any form or submitted any recommendations to President Trump.The two senators pointed out that the transaction raises significant national security concerns regarding whether countries like the UAE could potentially access "sensitive personal information" collected by World Liberty Financial.

CryptoQuant: The "ultimate" bear market bottom for Bitcoin is around $55,000

According to The Block, on-chain data analysis company CryptoQuant stated that the "ultimate" bear market bottom for Bitcoin is currently around $55,000. However, bear market bottoms typically take months to form, rather than being completed by a single capitulation event.Analysis shows that the realized price of Bitcoin has historically been a major support area during bear markets, and the current price is still more than 25% above that level. Despite Bitcoin dropping to $62,000, resulting in a single-day realized loss of $5.4 billion, a new high since March 2023, a structural bottom has not yet approached. The monthly cumulative realized loss (in BTC) remains far below the bear market bottom level: currently at 300,000 BTC, compared to 1.1 million BTC at the end of the 2022 bear market.Several key valuation indicators have also not entered the historical capitulation zone: the MVRV ratio has not reached the extremely undervalued range; the NUPL indicator has not reached the historical cycle low of about 20% unrealized loss; long-term holders are currently selling at approximately breakeven, while during historical bear market bottoms, they typically endure losses of 30%-40%; about 55% of Bitcoin supply is still in profit, while cycle lows are usually around 45%-50%. CryptoQuant's bull-bear cycle indicator is currently still in the "bear market phase" rather than the "extreme bear market phase," which historically lasts for several months and marks the beginning of the price entering a bottoming phase.
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