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According to analyst Alicharts, Bitcoin has dropped 52% since its peak in October 2025, with a 3-day SMA crossover signal appearing on February 27 (the death cross of both the 50-period and 200-period SMA), which has now lasted for 30 days. Historical patterns suggest that the final accumulation window of this cycle may occur within the next 3-6 days.Alicharts points out that historical records show that in every major cycle since 2014, the crossover of the 50 and 200 SMA marks an absolute bottom and a golden buying opportunity. Past cycles indicate that a final drop of 40-52% occurs 23-33 days after the crossover, completing the bear market washout. The potential washout target for this cycle is between $30,000 and $40,000, after which the next bull market will begin.

According to on-chain analyst aryan's disclosure on the X platform, in the attack incident on the Drift protocol treasury, the attacker's address obtained funds through NEAR Intents 8 days ago but remained inactive until receiving a large amount of assets from the Drift treasury.The attacker transferred the funds to multiple money laundering addresses. Notably, these money laundering addresses received funds through Backpack yesterday, and Backpack should have conducted KYC verification on these accounts. Subsequently, the money laundering addresses transferred the funds to an Ethereum address via Wormhole, which had previously received funds through Tornado Cash.

Market maker Wintermute's latest market weekly report indicates that the ratio of Bitcoin perpetual contract trading volume to spot trading volume has risen to 15 times, while the funding rate volatility has dropped to a low point in this cycle, showing that market leverage is high but there is insufficient directional consensus. The current structure is closer to "compression and accumulation," or brewing significant unilateral volatility.Wintermute believes that if geopolitical tensions ease and oil prices fall back to around $100, short positions will face the risk of being squeezed to between $70,000 and $74,000. If the situation continues to ease, the resistance level at $74,000 may be tested.Conversely, if the situation escalates further and oil prices rise to $120, oil prices could drop to just above $60, and if the cyclical trend is similar, it could fall to the mid-high $50,000 range. More macro-wise, the directionality here is not important; what matters is the market structure itself. The leverage on futures contracts is high, capital flows are fluctuating within the narrowest range ever recorded, and volatility is also narrowing.Regarding which direction the catalysts ultimately develop, the market structure indicates that the resulting volatility will far exceed the levels currently reflected in spot, futures, and options prices.

According to Jinshi Data, the People's Bank of China Monetary Policy Committee held its first quarter meeting of 2026 (the 112th meeting) on March 26. The meeting analyzed the domestic and international economic and financial situation, noting that the current changes in the external environment have deepened, the momentum of the world economy is weak, geopolitical conflicts and trade conflicts are frequent, the economic performance of major economies is diverging, and there is uncertainty in inflation trends and monetary policy adjustments.China's economic operation is generally stable, with progress in stability and new achievements in high-quality development, but it still faces issues and challenges such as strong supply and weak demand, and external shocks. It is necessary to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, increase counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, better leverage the dual functions of monetary policy tools in terms of both total volume and structure, and strengthen the coordination and cooperation between monetary and fiscal policies to promote stable economic growth and a reasonable rebound in prices.

The globally oriented Web3 intellectual property (IP) infrastructure project BeatSwap will launch its core product "Space" in Q2. This product is defined as the SocialFi layer in the ecosystem, aimed at directly connecting creators with users and achieving deep integration with other modules of the platform.As a result, a complete user behavior closed loop is formed within the platform: Discovery; Participation; Consumption; Rewards; Trading. The announcement states that the launch of this product marks BeatSwap's evolution towards a full-stack Web3 infrastructure. Through the integration of IP certification and on-chain registration, revenue distribution, incentive mechanisms, and other aspects, the platform constructs an end-to-end closed-loop path, allowing IP rights to complete the full cycle of "creation---usage---monetization" within the same ecosystem.

According to CoinDesk, despite several digital art projects being showcased at the Art Basel in Hong Kong, the overall performance of the NFT market remains weak, with no significant signs of recovery.Specifically, the listing price for Bored Ape #5278 from the "Bored Ape" series is currently only 7 ETH, down more than 100 ETH from its last transaction price, reflecting a significant pullback in the valuation of top NFT assets. Once regarded as a rapidly emerging asset class, the NFT art market has notably cooled, with both liquidity and price performance under continued pressure.

According to Forbes, Goldman Sachs analyst James Yaro stated in a research report that the decline in Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market has roughly reached the historical average level from peak to trough in this cycle. In recent weeks, Bitcoin and cryptocurrency-related stocks have shown volatility but are trending towards stability. However, Yaro warned that trading volume may decline further, and in a low trading volume environment, Bitcoin prices are prone to significant fluctuations, making any rebound difficult to sustain.He pointed out that trading volume typically remains at a low for about three months before showing a noticeable recovery. If trading volume continues to decline, cryptocurrency companies' revenues may decrease by 2% and profits by 4% in 2026. Goldman Sachs currently rates Robinhood, Figure Technologies, and Coinbase as "buy," with the stock prices of these three companies down at least 50% from their historical highs. Yaro stated that digital asset-related targets are presenting increasingly attractive entry points.Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon revealed last month at the World Liberty Forum held at Trump's Mar-a-Lago in Florida that he holds a small amount of Bitcoin, marking a shift in his stance for 2024. This week, Bitcoin prices fell back to around $60,000, and Trade Nation senior market analyst David Morrison noted that Bitcoin previously faced resistance and retreated around $72,000. Currently, the daily MACD indicator is flattening at a neutral level, and the short-term trend direction remains unclear.

According to the Iranian Tasnim News Agency, a senior Iranian security official stated that Trump's related remarks are psychological warfare. Iran has not engaged in any negotiations to date, and there are currently no negotiations. Iran will continue to respond and defend the nation. The Strait of Hormuz will not return to a pre-war state through psychological warfare.

SkyBridge founder Anthony Scaramucci stated that the current Bitcoin bear market can be explained by the four-year cycle theory and long-term holders selling at the psychological price level of $100,000. He pointed out that while the inflow of institutional investors and Bitcoin ETFs has made the four-year cycle "milder," it has not completely eliminated this traditional cycle, and the collective belief of market participants can create a self-fulfilling prophecy.He predicts that Bitcoin will exhibit a volatile trend for most of 2026, with a rise beginning in the fourth quarter as part of a new bull market cycle. Scaramucci mentioned that market participants, including himself, had generally expected Bitcoin to rise to $150,000 by 2025, driven by the pro-crypto agenda of the Trump administration and a warming regulatory environment, but the market crash in October completely shattered this consensus.He used the example of Bitcoin's performance in early 2023 following the FTX collapse in November 2022 to illustrate that the market often moves in the opposite direction of mainstream sentiment, with bull markets typically starting during periods of "extreme apathy and lack of interest." The current bear market is considered a "normal" adjustment consistent with past corrections.

According to official social media news, Huobi HTX will hold a themed live broadcast titled "HTX Comprehensive Empowerment: A New Cycle for $HTX" today at 20:00 (UTC+8). At that time, HTX DAO core builder Molly, HTX DAO governance committee members DaDa, Sister Mao, CDCClub co-founder Tingting, Ctalks co-founder Daling, CMO DI Michill, and HTX research team leader Cloud will be invited to attend. They will discuss the empowerment path of the HTX DAO ecosystem and the application expansion of $HTX in various scenarios such as trading and rights, exploring the positioning upgrade and value reassessment of $HTX in the new market cycle.

Cryptocurrency market maker GSR announced the acquisition of Autonomous and Architech for $57 million, building an integrated capital market and fund management platform that covers the entire lifecycle of projects from launch to expansion.After the acquisition is completed, Autonomous will continue to operate independently, providing support for the launch and operation of tokenized organizations; Architech will become a core component of GSR's digital asset consulting business. This acquisition marks GSR's further transformation into a "one-stop capital market service provider for crypto," strengthening its layout in the institutional-grade infrastructure and full-cycle service fields.This integration aims to address the current issues in the crypto industry regarding the decentralization of services and inconsistent incentives in areas such as token issuance, governance design, liquidity, financing, and listing strategies, by providing collaborative support through a unified framework. Additionally, clients will have access to GSR's existing institutional trading, derivatives, and asset management capabilities. GSR stated that the platform will also focus on enhancing the treasury management capabilities of crypto projects, covering liquidity planning, cash flow forecasting, risk management, and asset allocation strategies, promoting the transition of crypto funds from passive holding to sustainable returns and diversified allocation.

According to the latest data from rwa.xyz, Circle's tokenized U.S. Treasury fund USYC has surged over 41% in scale, with a total value exceeding $2.2 billion, successfully surpassing BlackRock's BUIDL fund to become the world's largest tokenized U.S. Treasury product.

Recently, Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire posted on the X platform that Circle's USYC has become the world's largest tokenized currency market fund. Tokenized vaults and repurchase transactions as collateral are an important emerging use case, and we are proud of how quickly it has developed. The strength of USYC lies in its ability to create and redeem USYC using USDC and smart contracts around the clock (24/7/365). The experience of real-time funding and collateral is better.Note: According to data from Coingecko, the market capitalization of USYC has surpassed $2.3 billion, currently reported at $2.31 billion.

On-chain analysis models show that the current selling pressure on the Bitcoin network has dropped to a cyclical low, indicating that the market is in a clear accumulation phase. The Sell-side Risk Ratio last triggered a "distribution signal" in December 2024, when the Bitcoin price was around $107,000, and this signal has not appeared since. Data shows that the current level of selling pressure has fallen to about one-sixth of the cyclical average, with related indicators even reflecting levels seen during the 2022-2023 bear market (when BTC prices were around $16,000 to $20,000).The model divides this cycle into two phases: the "strong distribution phase" from November to December 2024, with prices in the range of $64,000 to $107,000; and the current "accumulation phase" that has re-entered. The Sell-side Risk Ratio is used to measure the profit-taking activity of market participants relative to the overall network cost basis. When the indicator exceeds the adaptive upper threshold, it triggers a distribution signal, indicating that sellers dominate the market; when the indicator falls below the lower threshold, it triggers an accumulation signal, meaning selling pressure is extremely low. Data shows that the distribution signal in this cycle lasted a total of 37 days, covering the major range of BTC rising from $64,000 to $107,000.Since the signal closed on December 17, 2024, the market has not seen another distribution signal for about 449 consecutive days. Meanwhile, the 180-day rolling average of the Sell-side Risk Ratio has decreased from 3210 to 1913 over the past 60 days, a drop of 1297 points, and continues to decline at a rate of about 20 points per day. Historically, the range of 1500 to 2000 typically corresponds to selling pressure levels during 2019 (BTC around $3,000 to $6,000) and the mid-point of the 2022-2023 bear market (BTC around $16,000 to $20,000), but the current BTC price remains in the range of about $67,000 to $72,000, showing a clear structural divergence.Analysis indicates that this means early low-price holders have completed large-scale profit-taking in the $64,000 to $107,000 range, while those who did not sell in that range are currently choosing to hold. The model suggests that a new distribution signal may only be triggered when the Bitcoin price stabilizes above $100,000 to $110,000, accompanied by large-scale profit-taking. Overall, on-chain indicators show that the distribution phase of this cycle has ended, and the market has re-entered an accumulation state. The current overall judgment of the model on the market is "neutral to accumulation," but without new price catalysts, the market may face a prolonged period of consolidation.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr stated, "The last time the seller risk ratio showed active selling pressure signals was in December 2024 (around $107,000), after which the signal has remained off. Currently, the model shows accumulation signals, while the selling pressure on the network has decreased to about 6 times lower than the average level of this cycle. The indicator continues to decline and has replicated the levels seen during the 2022-2023 bear market, when Bitcoin prices were around $16,000-$20,000.The current cycle has gone through a distribution phase and has re-entered the accumulation phase, which is still ongoing. The 180-day rolling average has dropped to 1,913, a level that historically corresponds to bear market phases, but at that time, the corresponding price was only $16,000-$20,000, while the current price is in the $67,000-$72,000 range. The current market state is neutral with a slight accumulation bias. The main risk is: if there is a lack of price catalysts, the market may enter a prolonged consolidation, in which case the rolling average SRR indicator will continue to decline."

According to official news, the identity verification infrastructure VeryAI has announced the completion of a $10 million financing round, led by Polychain Capital, with participation from angel investors including the Berggruen Institute, Anagram, and Solana co-founder Toly.VeryAI is committed to building a privacy-first verification system based on palm print biometrics and cryptographic identity technology, aiming to distinguish real humans from bots, deepfakes, and synthetic identities at internet scale.

Former Meta Platforms Chief AI Scientist Yann LeCun's artificial intelligence company "Advanced Machine Intelligence Labs" (AMI Labs) announced the completion of a $1.03 billion funding round, led by Cathay Innovation, Greycroft, Hiro Capital, HV Capital, and Bezos Expeditions, along with participation from other investors and angel investors from around the world. This funding round has raised the valuation of the French company to $3.5 billion.Yann LeCun stated that AMI Labs aims to create an artificial intelligence with intelligence comparable to that of adult humans, capable of reasoning, planning, understanding the physical world, and learning autonomously from very few samples.

Cryptanalysis expert PlanB posted on the X platform, stating that the current Bitcoin price remains in the $67,000 range, but the S2F model still predicts a potential rise to $500,000 during the 2024-2028 cycle.If the model's judgment is accurate, it means that the current price of Bitcoin is severely undervalued and could likely be a potential long-term buying opportunity. However, the market is also discussing whether the model has become invalid. PlanB simultaneously asked the community, "Will Bitcoin's future trend be bullish or a collapse?"

Cryptocurrency market analyst Axel Adler Jr. posted on social media: "Bitcoin is currently in the mid-stage of this cycle. The NUPL--MVRV harmonic composite indicator is at 0.33, while the bottoms in previous cycles typically occur close to -0.5.This indicator also shows that the cycle lows are gradually moving up, indicating that the extreme panic selling in the market is diminishing. However, the indicator is still significantly above the historical bottom region, so the market has not yet confirmed a comprehensive capitulation sell-off."