In-depth Comparison of Seven Major Centralized Exchanges: Who is the Real Money Printer for Investors? — Profitability Section

2025-10-10 12:50:52

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"Isn't it all the same which exchange to buy coins from?" — This is a common thought among many investors, especially beginners. They believe that as long as they choose the right asset, the exchange is just a trading channel. But is that really the case?

Preface: Does the choice of exchange really affect the probability of making money?

"Isn't it the same which exchange you buy coins on?" ------ This is a common thought among many investors, especially newcomers. They believe that as long as they choose the right target, the exchange is merely a trading channel.

But is that really the case? To thoroughly clarify this issue, LUCIDA conducted a systematic data comparison. The focus will be on the following three core dimensions, providing a comprehensive analysis of seven mainstream centralized exchanges (CEX): Binance, OKX, Bitget, Gate, MEXC, Bybit, and Kucoin:

Profitability: At which exchange is it easier for you to buy the astonishingly rising "dark horse"?
Risk control capability: At which exchange are you less likely to encounter the traps of "breaking" or "halving"?
New coin listing speed: Which exchanges allow you to get in early on popular coins and capture early dividends?

The answers may be more complex than you think.

Disclaimer

All data and analysis involved in this article are based on publicly available market information, independently organized and compiled by LUCIDA, and are intended solely for academic and informational sharing purposes. The rankings, performance differences, and related conclusions mentioned in the article do not constitute any investment advice, nor do they represent our endorsement or bias towards any specific exchange. Market conditions are subject to dynamic changes, and readers should make independent decisions based on their own judgment and risk tolerance. LUCIDA does not bear any responsibility for any investment actions or consequences arising from the content of this article.

0. Statistical Methods and Scope Explanation (Must Read)

To ensure a fair and objective comparison, LUCIDA has set unified statistical standards:

Time slices (Backdrops): To reduce disturbances caused by differences in market phases, LUCIDA divides the core rising segments of the Crypto bull market over the past two years into three segments:

Backdrop1: 2023-01-01 ~ 2023-05-06

Backdrop2: 2023-10-01 ~ 2024-04-01

Backdrop3: 2024-09-01 ~ 2025-07-23

The reason for this is: only when BTC is rising can Altcoins have the opportunity to achieve better excess returns.

Not only concerned with whether the coin can rise, but also with how much it can rise. LUCIDA evaluates the "wealth creation" ability of each platform from three levels.

1. Rise Range Statistics

Let's start with "how much it rises." To ensure a fair comparison, LUCIDA breaks down the market over the past two years into three phases (referred to as Backdrop1, 2, 3), with Backdrop1 being from 2023-01-01 to 2023-05-06, Backdrop2 from 2023-10-01 to 2024-04-01, and Backdrop3 from 2024-09-01 to 2025-07-23. Each phase is a core period of BTC's rise, based on the principle that only when BTC is rising can Altcoins have the opportunity to achieve better excess returns.

In each phase, LUCIDA calculates the return rates of all coins on each exchange. The return rate for a single coin is calculated using the following formula:

Where Ri represents the return rate of the i-th coin in the interval; Phigh and Plow represent the highest and lowest prices after processing (the time series has chronological issues and needs to be calibrated). Then, we compare: which exchanges have coins that rise more? Which exchanges have the most "dark horse coins"? The results are quite intuitive: the differences between exchanges are very significant.

2. Proportion of Excess Coins Relative to BTC Across Different CEXs

LUCIDA uses the following formula to calculate this evaluation metric:

Where NRi>RBTC represents the number of coins on that exchange that have risen more than BTC, and Ncex represents the total number of coins listed on that exchange.

Example data for Backdrop 1:

Binance: 93/323 (28.79%)
OKX: 66/216 (30.7%)
Bitget: 98/313 (31.31%)
Gate: 223/1163 (19.1%)
MEXC: 123/537 (22.9%)
Bybit: 40/188 (21.28%)
KuCoin: 79/427 (18.5%)

Phase performance ranking:

Backdrop 1: Bitget > OKX > Binance > MEXC > Bybit > Gate > KuCoin
Backdrop 2: OKX > Binance > Bybit > Bitget > KuCoin > MEXC > Gate
Backdrop 3: MEXC > Bybit > KuCoin > Gate > Binance > Bitget > OKX

Summary:

(1) The "excess return capability" of exchanges is strongly tied to market conditions, with no "one-size-fits-all" players.

Under different Backdrops, the ranking of exchanges' "excess coin ratios" varies significantly (for example, Bitget ranks first in Backdrop1 but drops to second last in Backdrop3; MEXC tops Backdrop3 but is not a top performer in the first two phases). This indicates that no exchange can continuously produce a large number of coins that "outperform BTC" in all market environments; the excess return capability of exchanges is highly dependent on market conditions.

(2) Some exchanges have outstanding "excess capture capabilities" under "specific market conditions."

Bitget leads with a 31.31% excess coin ratio in Backdrop1, Bybit ranks high in Backdrop3, and MEXC performs best in Backdrop3 (a sluggish market). This means that some exchanges have a higher coverage of "outperforming BTC" coins in certain market environments (such as during market initiation or extreme volatility), making them suitable for strategy-oriented investors seeking "market beta + exchange alpha."

(3) "Outperforming BTC" is itself a low-probability event, highlighting BTC's "market anchoring position."

From the data, even in the relatively warm Backdrop1, the highest proportion of "coins outperforming BTC" across exchanges is only 31.31% (Bitget), with most exchanges below 30%; this proportion is even lower in other contexts. This reflects that in the crypto market, BTC remains a strong "return anchor," making it difficult for most coins to outperform the market in the long term, and "outperforming BTC" itself is rare.

(4) The "stability" of OKX and Binance is more suited to "broad market conditions," with diminished advantages in extreme conditions.

OKX and Binance perform top-notch in Backdrop2 (neutral to warm market), but in Backdrop3 (sluggish market), OKX drops to last place, and Binance ranks only fifth. This indicates that their "stability" is better suited to neutral, broad market environments, while in extreme conditions (such as deep corrections or strong unilateral trends), the "stability of excess returns" is significantly weakened, and some smaller exchanges are more likely to "break through" in extreme conditions.

3. Proportion of Coins with Returns Exceeding 500% Among All Listed Coins on Different CEXs

In addition to outperforming the market, investors are more eager to find "mythical coins" that can bring huge returns. LUCIDA calculates this using the following formula:

Where NRi>500% represents the number of coins listed on that exchange that have risen over 500%, and Ncex represents the total number of coins listed on that exchange. The results are shown in the table below:

Phase performance ranking:

Backdrop 1: MEXC > Gate > OKX > Bitget > KuCoin > Binance > Bybit
Backdrop 2: OKX > Bybit > Bitget > KuCoin > Binance > Gate > MEXC
Backdrop 3: MEXC > KuCoin > Bybit > Gate > Bitget > Binance > OKX

Summary: If you are a risk-seeking adventurer who is not afraid of high risks, then exchanges like MEXC, Gate, and KuCoin, which employ a "sea of coins" strategy (i.e., listing a large number of high-reward, high-risk coins), may provide more opportunities for your assets to explode.

4. Logarithmic Average Return Rate and Descriptive Statistics of All Listed Coins on Different CEXs

The average return rate can effectively evaluate the performance of coin returns within an exchange from a macro perspective. To avoid the asymmetry of ordinary return rates (theoretically, there is no upper limit on gains, but there is a lower limit on losses), LUCIDA uses logarithmic return rates to describe the distribution of coins. The specific calculation formula is as follows:

ln(Ri) represents the logarithmic return rate of a single coin on that exchange during a certain backdrop, and Ncex represents the total number of coins listed on that exchange. The following chart shows the statistical results:

From the perspective of logarithmic average return rates, the performance differences between exchanges become clearer:

"High upper limit potential type": The distribution of logarithmic return rates for coins on KUCOIN, Gate, and MEXC shows significant "upper limit potential," meaning that coins on these exchanges are more likely to experience "breakthrough rises."
"Dual excellence in mean and median": Bybit and MEXC perform relatively better in both the mean and median of logarithmic return rates, indicating that the overall return level of coins on their platforms is more prominent and the distribution is more balanced.

Summary: Overall, the returns and risks of cryptocurrency trading are highly intertwined, with market conditions being a key variable; and from more scientific indicators like logarithmic return rates, the earning capabilities of different exchanges are distinctly differentiated, requiring investors to carefully choose based on their own risk preferences and market judgments.

5. Probability Density of All Listed Coins on Different CEXs

To evaluate return levels more macroscopically, LUCIDA uses logarithmic average return rates. To reveal more microscopic distribution characteristics, LUCIDA has plotted the probability density distribution of coin return rates across exchanges (using Backdrop 1 as an example).

Binance

OKX

Bitget

Gate

BYBIT

MEXC

KUCOIN

As shown in the figures, the return characteristics of coins on different exchanges exhibit the following features:

Distribution characteristics: The return distributions of each exchange are approximately normally distributed and exhibit long-tail characteristics.
Platform differences:
Binance: The peak is the highest, indicating that more coins' returns are concentrated around the mean, making it relatively easier to obtain market average returns, providing a more "stable" experience.
Gate: The distribution is uniform, making it more difficult to obtain a stable mean, with higher uncertainty.
Tail characteristics: MEXC, KuCoin, Bybit, and OKX have abnormal peaks on the positive return side, indicating that on these platforms, the probability of capturing extremely high-return "dark horses" is relatively higher. In contrast, Gate's tail is more concentrated in the negative return range, meaning that investors face a higher risk of significant losses.

Conclusion

Profitability: This is not about choosing a platform, but about choosing a battlefield.

The data clearly reveals a core fact: there is no absolute "better" exchange; rather, there is a fundamental "strategic differentiation." Choosing an exchange is essentially about choosing your profit model and risk exposure.

(1) Binance & OKX: Mainstream "Beta" and selected "Alpha"

Core value: Stable excess returns. They are a microcosm of the mainstream market, providing the highest quality "Beta" (market average returns). Here, you have the highest probability of selecting coins that outperform Bitcoin.
Strategic positioning: The "core holdings" and "main battlefield" of wealth. Suitable for allocating most funds here for medium to long-term investments. Their new listing strategies tend to be conservative, but project quality screening is stricter, effectively providing you with the first round of risk control. Earning money here relies more on your judgment of project fundamentals and market trends rather than luck.
Summary: If you want to steadily beat the market, this is the best starting point. They are the battlefield prepared for "investors."

(2) MEXC, Gate, KuCoin: Hunting grounds for high-risk "Alpha"

Core value: Extreme return potential. They are practitioners of the "sea of coins" strategy, maximizing the soil for nurturing "hundred-fold mythical coins" by listing a large number of various projects (especially early-stage and niche projects).
Strategic positioning: The "satellite positions" and "opportunity windows" of wealth. Suitable for using a small portion of funds for high-risk, high-reward speculation. Their advantage lies not in win rates but in odds. Data shows they have the most significant "positive return long tail," meaning the probability of capturing assets with extreme rises is the highest.
Insight: However, you must accept the cost: extremely high volatility and deeper "traps" (Gate's negative return long tail is a clear example). Earning money here is more like panning for gold in the sand, requiring strong information filtering abilities and disciplined quick loss-cutting. They are the battlefield prepared for "adventurers" and "hunters."

(3) Strategic Insight: A balanced account allocation of offense and defense

Do not choose one or the other, but rather combine allocations. A savvy investor should not stick to just one exchange.
Main account (Binance/OKX): Used to deploy your core positions, capturing mainstream market trends and stable growth.
Scout account (MEXC/KuCoin/Gate): Used to scan the market's cutting-edge hotspots and meme coins with small funds, seeking ultra-high returns while isolating risks from the main account.
The performance of exchanges will rotate: Data indicates that no exchange maintains a leading position in all phases. The rise of MEXC and KuCoin in Backdrop 3 suggests that market hotspots and capital preferences will change at different stages of a bull market; a smart approach is to dynamically adjust your troop deployment across different battlefields based on market atmosphere.

The question's answer is no longer "which exchange makes more money," but rather "what role should each exchange play in your investment portfolio." Use Binance/OKX to safeguard your lower limit and MEXC/KuCoin to challenge your upper limit; this is the most profound profit strategy derived from the data.

About LUCIDA

Lucida (https://www.lucida.fund/) is an industry-leading quantitative hedge fund that entered the Crypto market in April 2018, primarily trading strategies such as CTA/statistical arbitrage/option volatility arbitrage.

For more content, visit https://linktr.ee/lucidaandfalcon