Epic crashes are just noise in the river of time

From Friday night to Saturday morning, the major global financial markets (U.S. stocks, crypto assets) encountered a "black swan": Trump tweeted his dissatisfaction with another country's rare earth controls, deciding to escalate the tariff war.

This conflict instantly triggered panic selling in the markets.

Among the sell-off, participants in the crypto ecosystem likely felt the most impact from the sharp decline in the crypto market.

Bitcoin and Ethereum both saw declines exceeding 10%.

If we look at the assets that were liquidated, the situation was even worse, with nearly $19.2 billion in assets being wiped out. This scale has surpassed the well-known past events of 519 ($9.3 billion) and 312 ($3 billion).

However, if we examine this sharp decline rationally, we will find some noteworthy aspects:

Even with such large-scale liquidations and declines, compared to past instances where Bitcoin and Ethereum often halved in value, this time the drop is not that significant.

This indirectly indicates that as the mainstream assets in the crypto ecosystem grow larger, their volatility is decreasing. Does this mean that even if we enter a bear market in the future, Bitcoin and Ethereum will be more resilient than we previously imagined?

In the face of this sharp decline, although there is a chorus of lament online, I hope our readers do not feel the same. Because if one strictly adheres to the discipline of not using leverage and avoiding various speculative plays, such a sharp drop can be completely ignored by investors holding Bitcoin and Ethereum spot.

If we firmly believe in the future potential and space of Bitcoin and Ethereum, such a decline is merely a slight noise in the long river of history, which will soon be smoothed over by time.

If there is anything worth noting about the crypto ecosystem during this sharp decline, I think there are possibly two points:

• For Bitcoin and Ethereum, have they dropped to their previously set dollar-cost averaging prices of $35,000 and $2,500?

If not, then just continue living as usual, no action is needed.

• For other projects you like, has this sharp decline changed their fundamentals? If their fundamentals haven't changed, have they dropped to the buy-in prices you have always dreamed of?

Clearly, this sharp decline is purely due to an external factor, and its impact on fundamentals can almost be ignored. As for whether the decline has brought project prices down to good buying points, that is for each investor to determine for themselves.

If not, then again, no action is needed.

Some readers ask: Does this sharp decline mean a bear market is coming, and does it mean it's time to start selling?

I have shared my views on this in previous articles:

For this round of a bull market that hasn't brought much surprise or excitement, I cannot discern its patterns, nor can I determine where the peak is, or when we will enter a bear market.

Therefore, I am highly likely to hold onto my Bitcoin and Ethereum as long as their prices are not absurdly high, completely ignoring the subsequent market changes.

The current sharp decline does not change my actions.

I cannot predict whether we will soon enter a bear market, nor will I sell my Bitcoin, Ethereum, or other tokens I hold at this position.

For me, this sharp decline may create more opportunities in other fields outside the crypto ecosystem. Because the deeper impact of this decline is the speed and intensity of the decoupling between China and the U.S., and how this decoupling will have far-reaching effects on the industries of both countries.

If we consider the previous decoupling between China and the U.S., China's sense of urgency and crisis was relatively strong, but after this, the U.S. will also experience an equal intensity of urgency and crisis, which means that the decoupling has entered an accelerated phase.

However, no matter how fast it accelerates, this process will take time. This time will influence the direction and layout of the two countries over the next 20 or even 30 years.

Recalling the comprehensive impact of AI on various industries along both vertical and horizontal axes that I shared last week, the current accelerated decoupling will similarly have a comprehensive impact on various industries along both axes.

How these two factors combined will affect the development of enterprises in various industries and the future direction of various assets, I believe, is more worthy of thought and observation than the impact brought by the sharp decline on current assets.