Are the last two months of this year the best for the market? Should we rush in now or run away?

October is coming to an end, and the crypto market seems to be showing some upward trends.

For the past two months, the word "cautious" has almost become the main theme of the crypto market, especially after the significant crash on October 11. The impact of this crash is slowly fading, and market sentiment seems to have stopped deteriorating, instead showing new hope.

Starting from late October, some signs of an upward trend have gradually emerged: net inflow data turning positive, a batch approval of altcoin ETFs, and rising expectations for interest rate cuts.

ETF Funds Flow Back, Institutions Re-enter

The most eye-catching data in October comes from ETFs.

Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen a cumulative net inflow of $4.21 billion this month, completely reversing the outflow trend of $1.23 billion in September. The assets under management have reached $178.2 billion, accounting for 6.8% of Bitcoin's total market capitalization. Just looking at the week from October 20 to 27, $446 million in new funds flowed in, with BlackRock's IBIT alone accounting for $324 million, and its holdings have now exceeded 800,000 BTC.

For traditional financial markets, ETF inflows are the most direct bullish indicator—it is more honest than social media hype and more real than candlestick charts.

More importantly, this round of increases truly carries an "institutional flavor." Morgan Stanley has opened up BTC and ETH allocations to all wealth management clients; JPMorgan allows institutional clients to use Bitcoin as collateral for loans.

According to the latest data, the average allocation of crypto assets by institutions has risen to 5%, a record high. Moreover, 85% of institutions indicate they have allocated or plan to allocate crypto assets.

Although Ethereum ETFs seem somewhat overshadowed compared to Bitcoin spot ETFs, with a cumulative net outflow of $555 million in October, marking the first consecutive net outflow since April this year, the main outflows came from Fidelity and BlackRock's ETH funds.

However, this also seems to be a new signal, indicating that funds are rotating from ETH to BTC and SOL, which have greater upside potential, or perhaps preparing for new ETFs.

A Batch of Altcoin ETFs Are Here

On October 28, the first batch of altcoin ETFs in the U.S. officially launched, covering three projects: Solana, Litecoin, and Hedera. Bitwise and Grayscale launched SOL ETFs, while Canary Capital's LTC and HBAR ETFs were also approved for trading on Nasdaq.

But this is just the beginning.

Reports indicate that there are currently 155 altcoin ETFs waiting for approval, covering 35 mainstream assets, with a total scale expected to exceed the initial inflows of the first two rounds of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.

If all are approved, the market may experience an unprecedented "liquidity shockwave."

Historically, the launch of Bitcoin ETFs has led to cumulative inflows exceeding $50 billion, while Ethereum ETFs have also brought in an additional $25 billion in assets.

ETFs are not just financial products; they are more like a "gateway for funds." When this gateway expands from BTC and ETH to altcoins like SOL, XRP, LINK, and AVAX, the entire market's valuation system will be re-priced.

Institutional interest in crypto assets is growing stronger. Additionally, ProShares is preparing to launch the CoinDesk 20 ETF, which will track 20 assets including BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP; REX-Osprey's 21-Asset ETF goes further, allowing holders to earn staking rewards from tokens like ADA, AVAX, NEAR, SEI, and TAO. There are 23 ETFs tracking Solana waiting for approval. This intensive layout almost publicly declares that the risk curve for institutions is extending from Bitcoin to the entire DeFi ecosystem.

From a macro perspective, this potential for liquidity expansion is enormous. As of October 2025, the total market capitalization of global stablecoins is nearing $300 billion. Once this "liquidity reserve" is activated by ETFs, it will create a powerful capital multiplier effect. For example, with Bitcoin ETFs, every $1 flowing into the ETF can ultimately amplify to several times the market value growth.

If the same logic is applied to altcoin ETFs, hundreds of billions of dollars in new capital could drive the entire DeFi ecosystem to thrive once again.

The Wind of Rate Cuts Brings New Liquidity Again

In addition to ETFs, another factor changing the market comes from the often-discussed macro perspective.

On October 29, there is a 98.3% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points. The market seems to have anticipated this expectation, with the dollar index weakening and risk assets collectively strengthening, allowing Bitcoin to break through $114,900.

What does a rate cut mean? It means that funds need to find new outlets.

In the traditional market, which generally lacks imagination in 2025, crypto has become the place that is "still telling stories."

Interestingly, this wave of good news comes not only from the market but also from policy.

On October 27, the White House nominated Michael Selig to serve as the CFTC chairman; this former crypto lawyer has always had a friendly attitude. The SEC also updated the ETP creation mechanism, allowing crypto ETFs to conduct in-kind redemptions, greatly simplifying operations.

On the topic of "regulatory friendliness," the U.S. market is not just loosening up but opening wide. The government is no longer suppressing innovation but is trying to let the crypto industry "exist compliantly."

On-chain data is also synchronously confirming all of this.

The total value locked (TVL) in DeFi grew by 3.48% in October, reaching $157.5 billion. Among them, Ethereum's chain TVL reached $88.6 billion, growing by 4%; Solana rose by 7%; and BSC's increase even reached 15%. This represents not just "funds flowing back," but also a return of trust.

Additionally, the total amount of Bitcoin futures open interest rose to $53.7 billion, with a positive funding rate, indicating that bulls are dominating the market. Whale wallets are also accumulating, with a large holder buying $350 million worth of BTC within 5 hours. In the secondary market, Uniswap's monthly trading volume exceeded $161 billion, and Raydium surpassed $20 billion, with the ecosystem's activity continuing to rise.

These on-chain indicators form the most solid bullish evidence: funds are moving, positions are increasing, and trading is heating up.

Why Are Top Analysts Bullish?

Arthur Hayes: The Four-Year Cycle is Dead, the Liquidity Cycle Lives Forever

In a blog post titled "Long Live the King" on Thursday, Arthur Hayes wrote that while some cryptocurrency traders expect Bitcoin to soon reach a cycle peak and crash next year, he believes this time will be different.

His core argument is that Bitcoin's "four-year cycle" has failed because what truly determines the market is not "halving," but the global liquidity cycle—especially the resonance of monetary policies between the U.S. dollar and the Chinese yuan.

The past three bull and bear cycles seemed to follow the rhythm of "bull market after halving, a four-year cycle," but that was just a facade. Hayes believes that this rhythm held because each cycle coincided with periods of significant expansion of the U.S. dollar or Chinese yuan, extremely low interest rates, and global credit easing. For example:

2009-2013: Federal Reserve's unlimited QE, massive lending in China;

2013-2017: Credit expansion in the yuan driving the ICO boom;

2017-2021: "Helicopter money" during the Trump and Biden eras leading to liquidity flooding.

When the credit expansion of these two currencies slows down, Bitcoin's bull market also comes to an end. In other words, Bitcoin is merely a barometer for global monetary easing.

By 2025, this "halving-driven" logic will completely collapse. This is because the monetary policies of the U.S. and China have entered a new normal—political pressure demands continuous easing, and liquidity will no longer tighten cyclically. The U.S. needs to "run a hot economy" to dilute debt, with Trump pressuring for rate cuts and fiscal expansion; China is also releasing credit to combat deflation. Both countries are injecting funds into the market.

Thus, Hayes concludes: "The four-year cycle is dead. The real cycle is the liquidity cycle. As long as the U.S. and China continue to print money, Bitcoin will keep rising."

This means that the future crypto market will no longer be dictated by the "halving" timetable but will depend on "the direction of the U.S. dollar and the yuan." He concludes with a phrase: "The king is dead, long live the king"—the old cycle has ended, but the new Bitcoin cycle, driven by liquidity, has just begun.

Raoul Pal: The 5.4-Year Cycle Replaces the Traditional 4-Year Cycle

Raoul Pal's 5-year cycle theory represents a fundamental reconstruction of the traditional Bitcoin 4-year halving cycle. He believes that the traditional 4-year cycle is not driven by the Bitcoin protocol itself, but is the result of the past three cycles (2009-2013, 2013-2017, 2017-2021) coinciding with the global debt refinancing cycle.

The ends of these cycles stem from monetary tightening policies, rather than the halving events themselves.

The key to this theoretical shift lies in the structural change in the average maturity of U.S. debt during the 2021-2022 period. In a near-zero interest rate environment, the U.S. Treasury extended the average weighted maturity of debt from about 4 years to 5.4 years.

This extension not only affects the refinancing timetable but, more importantly, changes the rhythm of global liquidity release, thereby postponing Bitcoin's cyclical peak from the traditional fourth quarter of 2025 to the second quarter of 2026, which also suggests that the fourth quarter of 2025 will see a rebound.

In Pal's view, the total global debt has reached about $300 trillion, with approximately $10 trillion set to mature (mainly U.S. Treasury and corporate bonds), requiring massive liquidity injections to avoid soaring yields. Every trillion dollars of liquidity increase is associated with a 5-10% return in stocks and cryptocurrencies. For cryptocurrencies, $10 trillion in refinancing could inject $2-3 trillion into risk assets, pushing BTC from a low of $60,000 in 2024 to over $200,000 in 2026.

Therefore, Pal's model predicts that the second quarter of 2026 will witness an unprecedented peak in liquidity. When the ISM breaks above 60, it will trigger Bitcoin to enter the "banana zone," with a target price of $200,000 to $450,000.