4E: Bitcoin dips to 90,000 USD, the market prepares for a deep decline in advance

According to 4E observations, Bitcoin is entering an extreme panic zone, having fallen below $91,000 on the morning of November 18, showing a free-fall decline. Protective demand in the options market has surged sharply, with total bets on put contracts with strike prices of $90,000, $85,000, and even $80,000 expiring at the end of November exceeding $740 million, indicating that traders are preparing for deeper declines in advance.

Chris Newhouse, research director at Ergonia, pointed out that positions bought in the past six months have largely become deeply trapped, and the buying power of bullish sentiment has significantly weakened. The CoinMarketCap sentiment index shows that the market is in "extreme fear," with many investors suffering heavy losses and unable to add positions, yet unwilling to cut losses, creating a downward price inertia.

The pressure is most concentrated on the so-called "crypto treasury companies." Companies that have hoarded coins this year have become the focus of selling risks. Although Michael Saylor's Strategy continues to increase its holdings of $835 million in BTC, other peers are facing balance sheet pressures and are forced to consider selling assets. Greg Magadini from Amberdata stated that this selling pressure is particularly impacting Ethereum, with many large ETH treasury companies generally in a state of loss, and ETH has fallen to $2,975, down 24% since early October.

Macroeconomic factors further deteriorate risk appetite. The cooling expectations for Fed rate cuts and discussions about the AI bubble are jointly suppressing the market. Kaiko analysts emphasize that these two major factors will continue to pose significant resistance until the end of the year. Since early October, the crypto market has erased about $19 billion in market value, with open interest in futures continuing to decline, and the holdings of small-cap tokens like Solana have been halved. Kraken economist Perfumo pointed out that the current market panic is more rooted in macro anxiety rather than structural issues within the crypto industry.

4E Commentary: The speed of BTC's breakdown reflects the chain-clearing effect under liquidity tightening, with the options market having already bet on the $80,000 range. The short-term sentiment is weak, treasury selling pressure and macro headwinds are overlapping, and the market needs to be wary of a secondary deep decline, but the core risk comes from macro factors rather than the crypto fundamentals themselves.