1. Introduction: The "Change and Constancy" of Cyclical Patterns

Bitcoin undergoes a supply halving approximately every four years, a mechanism that also shapes the cyclical fluctuations of the crypto market. However, since the completion of the fourth halving in April 2024, the performance of Bitcoin and the entire crypto market has exhibited new characteristics unlike before. Historically, halvings often signal the bottom of a bear market, followed by a new bull market peak for Bitcoin within about a year. Yet, the cycle from 2024 to 2025 has left many investors puzzled—while Bitcoin's price did reach an all-time high, the market did not exhibit the same kind of fervor seen in the past; instead, the upward momentum appeared slow and gentle, with reduced volatility, leading many to question the apparent failure of the four-year cycle.

What different characteristics are present in this cycle, and which aspects of the four-year cycle theory remain valid? What factors have caused the rhythm of this cycle to change? Amidst the shifting macro environment, the influx of institutional funds, and the fading enthusiasm of retail investors, what direction will Bitcoin's future trajectory take? This article will analyze the market performance of this Bitcoin halving cycle, explore the changes and causes of its cyclical patterns, and forecast price trends for late 2025 and 2026, attempting to provide investors with a comprehensive and insightful analysis.

2. Performance and Characteristics of This Bitcoin Halving Cycle

Source: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/crypto-market-cycle-indicators/

On April 19, 2024, Bitcoin completed its fourth block reward halving, reducing the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. According to past cyclical rhythms, halvings typically occur at the end of a bear market, followed by a bull market within 12 to 18 months. However, the developments from 2024 to 2025 exhibit both a repetition of cycles and distinct "differences."

• Price Trend Overview: New highs emerge, but the momentum is tepid. On the day of the halving, Bitcoin's price closed around $64,000. In the following months, the market fluctuated, but overall maintained an upward trajectory: by mid-November 2024, Bitcoin broke through the $90,000 mark; propelled by the conclusion of the U.S. presidential election and a flurry of positive news, Bitcoin surpassed the $100,000 milestone on December 5, 2024, setting a new high at that time. Entering 2025, Bitcoin's price continued to rise, reaching a historical peak of around $126,270 on October 6, 2025. This peak occurred approximately 18 months after the halving, seemingly mirroring past cycles. However, the current upward trend is relatively slow and gentle, lacking the explosive fervor seen in the later stages of previous cycles. From the bear market low in 2022 (~$15,000), Bitcoin's peak represents an increase of about 7-8 times, while from the halving in 2024 (~$64,000), it has grown by less than two times. In contrast, during the 2017 bull market, Bitcoin surged nearly 20 times from the bear market low, and in the 2021 bull market, it increased by about 3.5 times. Clearly, the slope and magnitude of this price increase have significantly converged, exhibiting "slow bull" characteristics.

• Market Sentiment and Volatility: Absence of frenzy, reduced volatility. While prices reached new highs, the market did not exhibit the widespread enthusiasm seen in previous cycles. At the peaks of the bull markets in late 2017 and late 2021, there was a surge of public interest and a proliferation of altcoins. This time, even with Bitcoin surpassing $100K, public sentiment remained relatively calm, failing to trigger the buying frenzy seen in 2017 or the widespread discussions surrounding NFTs and Dogecoin in 2021. On-chain data indicates that during this bull market, funds were primarily concentrated in large cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, with market share nearing 60%, while many speculative altcoins struggled to rebound. Market volatility has also significantly decreased, with annual volatility gradually declining from early highs of over 140%; during the pullback in the second half of 2025, Bitcoin's short-term volatility did increase, but overall, it lacked the dramatic rollercoaster-like fluctuations of the past, resulting in a restrained and slow upward trend.

• Multi-phase gentle ascent, lacking "final explosive surge." Notably, the bull market peak from 2024 to 2025 was not a single bubble but reached in phases. From late 2024 to early 2025, Bitcoin encountered resistance and consolidation multiple times around the $100K mark before reaching new highs: in January, MicroStrategy announced a massive purchase, pushing the price to $107K; after a peak in August, Bitcoin quickly fell back below $118K due to disappointing U.S. inflation (PPI) data. It wasn't until early October that the market's final surge pushed the price to $126K, yet it did not exhibit the "final frenzy" characteristic of past cycles: as soon as the peak was reached, selling pressure followed, leading to a nearly 30% drop within six weeks, reaching a seven-month low of about $89,000 by mid-November. It can be said that while this bull market saw prices reach new highs, it lacked explosive acceleration, and the entire upward phase appeared calm, with the subsequent pullback occurring swiftly and sharply.

• Partial alignment with four-year cycle rhythm: time window from low to high. Despite many unusual aspects of this cycle, when viewed solely from the perspective of time and path, it still somewhat aligns with the classic "four-year cycle" outline. Bitcoin bottomed out around ~$16,000 at the end of 2022, exactly one year after the previous peak (November 2021 at $69,000); the halving in April 2024 roughly marks the end of the bear market; and the peak of this cycle (October 2025) occurs about 18 months after the halving, similar to the time intervals from halvings to bull market peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021. Therefore, from the broad framework of "halving -> bull market -> peak -> bear market," this cycle has not completely derailed. As analysis points out: "From the April 2024 halving to the October 2025 peak of $125K, it took nearly 18 months. If we only look at this path, it still seems to follow the cyclical pattern: the halving marks the bottom, the peak occurs about a year later, and then enters a correction period."

In summary, while the market performance post-halving has indeed seen new price highs, the overall timing of the cycle aligns with expectations, but the quality of the market and the experience of participants have clearly differed from the past. This has led to increasing skepticism among investors regarding the traditional four-year cycle of Bitcoin. Which parts of the traditional cycle theory still hold true, and which aspects are changing?

3. Is the Four-Year Cycle Theory Still Valid?

Despite the apparent chaos, a deeper analysis reveals that the core logic of Bitcoin's "four-year cycle" has not completely vanished. The supply-demand changes brought about by halving continue to support long-term price increases, and the cyclical psychology of investor greed and fear remains in play, albeit with a more tempered performance this time.

• The long-term effects of supply contraction persist. Bitcoin's halving every four years means that new supply continues to decrease, which is the fundamental logic behind past bull markets. Even though the total supply of Bitcoin is now nearing its limit of 94%, and the marginal reduction in supply from each halving is shrinking, the market expectation of "scarcity" still exists. In previous cycles, the belief in long-term bullishness post-halving was evident, with many investors choosing to hold rather than sell. This cycle is no different: the April 2024 halving reduced new coin issuance from 900 coins per day to 450 coins, and despite significant price fluctuations, most long-term holders have continued to hold their coins, not selling off large amounts due to relatively limited price increases. This indicates that the tightening effect of supply contraction is still at play, although the force driving price increases through supply-demand rebalancing is weaker than before.

• On-chain cyclical indicators continue to operate in rhythm. Bitcoin investor behavior still exhibits a typical "accumulate - take profit" cycle, with many on-chain indicators showing cyclical fluctuations. For example, the MVRV (Market Value/Realized Value Ratio) often falls below 1 at the end of a bear market and rises into overbought territory during a bull market. In the 2024 bull market, MVRV peaked at around 2.8, then fell below 2 during the adjustment in early 2025. SOPR=1 is seen as the dividing line between bull and bear markets; below 1 indicates that most are selling at a loss, while above 1 indicates that most trades are taking profits. During the 2024-2025 bull market phase, this indicator remained above 1 for most of the time, consistent with historical bull market scenarios. Additionally, the RHODL indicator, which measures the ratio of short-term to long-term holders, also reached a cyclical high in 2025, suggesting that the market structure is entering its later stages, indicating potential topping. Overall, typical on-chain indicators like MVRV, SOPR, and RHODL continue to operate according to their inherent cycles; although their absolute values have changed, the emotional cycles of investor greed and fear still depict similar trajectories on-chain.

• Historical data: Diminishing returns but the trend remains intact. From a broader perspective, the diminishing returns at each cycle peak are an inevitable phenomenon following market expansion and do not imply the disappearance of the cycle. Historically, peak return rates have indeed decreased with each cycle: in 2013, the peak rose about 20 times compared to the previous peak, in 2017 it rose about 20 times (relative to the end of 2013 prices), and in 2021, it only rose about 3.5 times compared to the 2017 high. In this cycle, from the 2021 peak of $69,000 to the 2025 peak of $125,000, the increase was only about 80% (0.8 times). The marginal convergence of returns is normal: as the market size increases, the marginal driving force of new funds diminishes, so the reduced price increases are not evidence of cycle ineffectiveness but rather a natural result of a mature market.

In summary, the underlying driving forces of the traditional four-year cycle (supply contraction, investor behavior patterns) continue to play a role in this cycle, with halving still bringing about supply-demand turning points, and the market still following the cyclical rhythm of "fear - greed." However, at the same time, a series of new factors are disrupting and rewriting the "surface patterns" of cycle performance, making the external rhythm of the cycle difficult to grasp.

4. The Truth of Cycle Imbalance: The Surge of Variables and Fragmented Narratives

If the intrinsic logic of the halving cycle still exists, why is this cycle so difficult to interpret? The fundamental reason lies in the fact that the single rhythm (halving-driven) that once dominated the market has now been disrupted by multiple forces. Various factors interact, weaving a complex new pattern.

Source: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/bitcoin-dominance/

1. Structural impact of ETFs and institutional funds. Starting in 2024, Bitcoin spot ETFs were approved and launched in the U.S., bringing a continuous influx of institutional funds, changing the market's previous rules dominated by retail and leveraged funds, and introducing a large amount of incremental capital. As of October 2025, the total assets held by Bitcoin ETFs listed in the U.S. reached $176 billion. The entry of institutional funds not only boosted prices but also increased market stability: data shows that the average entry cost for ETF investors is around $89,000, which has become an effective support level for the market. However, when market sentiment reverses, a large amount of ETF holdings can turn into selling pressure, leading to unprecedented rapid liquidity shocks. Since late October 2025, with the emergence of macro headwinds, institutional funds have withdrawn significantly. Since October 10, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen outflows totaling about $3.7 billion, with $2.3 billion occurring in November. It is evident that the market structure in the ETF era is "more stable yet more fragile": while the slow bull market reduces volatility, once key support (such as the average cost of $89K) is breached, the resulting sell-off can be more severe.

Source: https://coinmarketcap.com/etf/bitcoin/

Source: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/bitcoin-treasuries/

2. Fragmented narratives and accelerated rotation of hot topics. In the previous bull market from 2020 to 2021, the market formed a sustained main narrative around DeFi and NFTs, facilitating a smooth transition of funds from Bitcoin to higher-risk assets. However, the hot topics in this cycle are characterized by fragmentation and fleeting moments. The rapid rotation of narratives has led to high-frequency fund switching, making it difficult for funds to stay in any particular sector for long, breaking the traditional linkage of "Bitcoin driving altcoin rallies." Reviewing the period from 2023 to 2025, hot topics have emerged in succession but lack a strong overarching narrative:

• Late 2023 to early 2024: The anticipation of Bitcoin ETF approvals ignited the market, followed by a surge in Bitcoin Ordinals inscriptions;

• Mid-2024: The Solana ecosystem surged, and some meme coins (like Dogecoin) saw brief popularity;

• Late 2024 to early 2025: AI concepts began to intersperse with hype (AI Meme, AI Agent, etc. became topics in succession);

• Throughout 2025: InfoFi, Binance Meme, new public chains, x402, etc., gained limited popularity, but their durations were all short-lived.

The rapid rotation of sectors means that funds are chasing short-term hot topics at high frequency, lacking sedimentation, resulting in altcoin sectors failing to experience a comprehensive explosion. Many mid- and small-cap coins peaked and fell early, while Bitcoin, despite its limited gains, has consistently maintained a dominant market share. This "fragmented market" has led to a lack of widespread enthusiasm in the later stages of the bull market. Therefore, the peak of this bull market occurred under the steady rise of Bitcoin itself, rather than alongside a frenzied surge of the entire crypto ecosystem, appearing relatively "quiet."

3. Self-fulfilling cycles realized prematurely. As the "four-year halving cycle" became widely recognized, the behavior of market participants began to alter the rhythm of the cycle. Everyone knows that prices will rise after a halving, so they position themselves early, and when prices reach a certain level, they sell off. Many veteran players in this bull market positioned themselves early and took profits earlier than usual. At the same time, major players like ETF holders, market-making institutions, and miners adjusted their strategies based on cycle signals: as prices approached "theoretical highs," they collectively reduced their positions to hedge, exacerbating market selling pressure. The bull market may have been artificially "snuffed out" before it could truly reach a frenzy, causing the cycle peak to arrive earlier and lower than historical patterns.

4. Macro and policy variables: Intertwined external indicators. Compared to the past, regulatory and political environments, along with macro factors represented by Federal Reserve policies and geopolitical risks, have had unprecedented impacts on the crypto market in this cycle, becoming significant variables that disrupt the cycle. After Trump took office, a series of policies favorable to Bitcoin and the crypto industry were implemented, but the pace did not meet expectations. By the end of 2024, the market was betting on a new round of easing, benefiting crypto assets broadly. However, entering the second half of 2025, the macro winds shifted dramatically: U.S. inflation data fluctuated, and economic prospects became uncertain, leading to repeated changes in expectations for future Fed rate cuts. Particularly in October 2025, U.S.-China trade tariff frictions triggered a stock market crash, leading the market to question whether the Fed would slow down rate cuts. The uncertainty surrounding interest rate prospects placed overall pressure on risk assets, causing Bitcoin to follow suit and adjust downward.

5. The dual impact of Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT). Since 2024, a new phenomenon has emerged where more and more institutions and publicly listed companies are incorporating Bitcoin and other crypto assets into their balance sheets, forming Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT). Large companies like MicroStrategy continuously increase their Bitcoin holdings as company reserves; even many small companies unrelated to the industry announce purchases of cryptocurrencies to enhance their market value. These institutional holders provided continuous buying pressure during the bull market, acting as a "reservoir," and their proactive allocation helped the market rise. However, DAT also harbors risks: most of these companies built their positions at high prices, and if prices fall sharply, their assets could incur unrealized losses, potentially facing pressure from investors or being forced to reduce holdings. Although large-scale sell-offs have not yet occurred, the presence of DAT holders adds a layer of concern regarding price bottoms. The rise of DAT is a new element in this cycle, reinforcing Bitcoin's "digital gold" attribute but also meaning that cycle fluctuations are more closely tied to traditional finance.

In summary, multiple variables such as ETFs/institutional funds, fragmented narratives, reflexivity of expectations, macro policies, and DAT have collectively shaped the "anomalous" cycle of 2024-2025, necessitating a more macro and complex perspective. Simply applying past cyclical rules may not suffice to address the present; a deeper understanding of the driving forces behind the cycle and the new changes in market structure is essential.

5. Outlook and Conclusion

As 2025 draws to a close, Bitcoin stands at a critical crossroads after experiencing a rapid pullback: is this the end of the current bull market and the beginning of a bear market, or a consolidation phase preparing for the next upward movement? There are significant divergences in market opinions regarding this. Looking ahead to December 2025 and 2026, we need to consider both cyclical patterns and the influence of new variables, referencing multiple perspectives to form rational expectations.

• Cyclical perspective: Is the bull market endpoint visible, with the bear market beginning to show? Analysts who favor cyclical analysis believe that according to the classic four-year cycle, the historical peak of $126K in October 2025 is likely the top of this bull market, and the market will enter a prolonged adjustment period until the next halving (around 2028) before a new bull market can begin. Given the lack of frenzied bubbles at this peak, the decline may be relatively mild. Some also argue that this bear market may be characterized by a "slow decline" rather than a waterfall-like crash. The reasoning is that institutional funds have enhanced market resilience; for example, after dropping to the $50K-$60K range, the market may enter a prolonged consolidation phase, using time to create space for the bear market. Others believe that the traditional four-year model is no longer applicable, suggesting that the bear market began six months ago and is currently in its later stages. Overall, qualitative analysis of the cycle leans towards the view that the decline starting in Q4 2025 marks a turning point between bull and bear markets, with the main trend in 2026 likely to be weak, but the magnitude and pace of declines may be milder compared to historical bear markets, with the possibility of a prolonged bottoming process.

• Macro perspective: Policy easing may serve as a buffer, and risk assets still hold potential. From a macro perspective, the environment for Bitcoin in 2026 may be much friendlier than in 2022-2023. Major global central banks are expected to end their tightening cycles in 2024-2025, with the Fed anticipated to begin a rate-cutting cycle by the end of 2025. The market currently assigns an 85% probability to a 25bp rate cut in December, with expectations for multiple cuts in 2026. Low interest rates and ample liquidity are favorable for Bitcoin and other inflation-resistant assets, suggesting that even if the cycle enters a downward phase, macro easing may prevent significant price declines. If this assessment is correct, 2026 could see a "spring in the bear market": as rate cuts take effect and the economy stabilizes, risk appetite may rebound, with some incremental funds re-entering the crypto space, leading to a phase of market rebound. A possible scenario is that Bitcoin forms a U-shaped or L-shaped bottom in 2026: continuing to oscillate and bottom in the first half, gradually rising in the second half under the effects of rate cuts. However, potential risks must be monitored: if the global economy falls into a severe recession or geopolitical tensions escalate, the benefits of rate cuts may be offset by risk-averse sentiment, leading to fluctuating Bitcoin prices. Overall, the expectations of easing create hope for 2026, but the path to market reversal may be tortuous and repetitive.

• Market structure perspective: Institutional competition and rational pricing become the norm. After the 2024-2025 period, the structure of market participants has changed significantly, which will also influence the trajectory in 2026. An increased proportion of institutional funds means that future price fluctuations will be more driven by fundamentals and data, with short-term emotional influences relatively diminished. The ETF holding cost (around $89K) will become an important technical level: if prices remain below this cost line, it may trigger further outflows from ETF funds, suppressing the height of rebounds; conversely, if the market stabilizes and rises above this line, a new wave of funds may enter. Regarding Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT), differentiation may emerge in 2026: some Bitcoin treasury companies may be forced to reduce holdings if their stock prices are sluggish or their finances are under pressure, but it is also possible that more companies will seize the opportunity to accumulate Bitcoin at lower prices, resulting in a balancing act. Miners, as long-term sellers, will also influence the bottom with their production costs (estimated in the $40K-$50K range): if prices fall below cash costs for too long, miners may reduce production or shut down, which could tighten supply and help establish a bottom. Thus, the Bitcoin market in 2026 is likely to be more mature and rational, which does not mean a lack of trading opportunities, but rather that the dramatic wealth gains and losses will be harder to replicate.

However, many top institutions still hold high confidence in Bitcoin's long-term prospects. ARK Invest reaffirms its vision of $1.5 million by 2030, with long-term optimism providing belief support for the market. In the short to medium term, investors are more concerned with the actual path in 2026. It may be a test of patience.

Conclusion

In summary, the four-year cycle of Bitcoin has not truly failed but is undergoing transformation. The market from 2024 to 2025 tells us that the supply shock from halving is still present, with an invisible hand driving long-term trends; however, the entry of institutional funds, the intervention of the macro environment, and changes in investor expectations have collectively shaped a more complex and unpredictable new cycle. Yet, we also see the rise of rational forces, advancements in infrastructure, and the accumulation of long-term value.

For crypto investors, this means the need to upgrade their understanding and strategies: embrace data-driven analysis, embrace long-term value investing, and embrace structural opportunities. More importantly, it is essential to respond rationally to cycles: remain calm during the exuberance of a bull market and maintain faith during the gloom of a bear market. After all, Bitcoin has repeatedly reached new highs through several cycles, and its underlying value and network effects only increase. While cycles may be prolonged and amplitudes may converge, the long-term upward direction remains unchanged. Each adjustment is a process of survival of the fittest, allowing truly valuable assets to accumulate; each innovation will give rise to new growth points, enabling the industry to continue evolving.

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