HTX DeepThink: Market Repair or Further Decline? A Storm of Macroeconomic Data Approaches, Bitcoin May Face a Directional Choice

Entering December, the global macro environment and the cryptocurrency market are both entering a critical observation period. This week, the concentrated release of manufacturing, employment, and inflation data will become the core basis for the market to reassess the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path, following the statistical vacuum caused by the previous U.S. government shutdown; stock market liquidity and cryptocurrency market sentiment are also undergoing repricing. In this issue, HTX Research researcher Chloe (@ChloeTalk1) will analyze the current risk landscape and possible evolution directions around macro data, U.S. stocks, and changes in the cryptocurrency market structure.

High-frequency indicators concentrated release, interest rate cut expectations face repricing

Currently, the macro and cryptocurrency markets are in a typical "multiple data-intensive + policy turning point uncertainty" critical window. Although the market generally bets that the Federal Reserve will continue to cut rates in December, Powell emphasized last week that due to the absence of official economic data caused by the government shutdown, decision-makers are unlikely to have complete labor and inflation indicators before the meeting. Therefore, the multiple high-frequency data released this week will directly affect whether the probability of an interest rate cut falls back to 50% or is pushed up to nearly 100%.

First is the November ISM Manufacturing PMI. The manufacturing sector has been in a contraction zone since March, with last month's figure at only 48.7. New orders and employment sub-indices are both below 50, reflecting that tariff and global demand uncertainties are still fermenting. In contrast, the Services PMI remains at a mild expansion of 52.4, but the price sub-index is high around 70, indicating that inflation pressure comes from domestic services rather than imports. If the services sector strengthens again in November, it will reinforce the hawkish voices within the Federal Reserve; if it falls back to 50, it will almost lock in an immediate rate cut in December.

The labor market has become the most influential variable. Due to the cancellation of October's non-farm payrolls and the November non-farm data not being released until December 16 (after the meeting), this week's ADP private sector employment data will be crucial. October's ADP added 42,000 jobs, exceeding expectations. If November unexpectedly strengthens, it will weaken rate cut expectations; if it weakens, it will strengthen the argument for "policy needs to loosen faster." The subsequent Challenger layoffs report is also highly anticipated, as layoffs in October surged to 153,074, the highest in 22 years. If November continues to rise, the market will reprice the downside risks of the U.S. economy.

The PCE inflation and personal spending data released on Friday is the most important event of the week. The market expects the overall PCE for September to rise slightly from 2.7% to 2.8%, with core PCE remaining at 2.9%. If the data continues to show "inflation stuck at 3%," the pace of rate cuts will be constrained; if it unexpectedly weakens, it will provide short-term corrective momentum for the market.

Risk appetite under pressure, market awaits directional signals

In the U.S. stock market, Goldman Sachs' trading department pointed out that as volatility recedes and market breadth recovers from -150 at the beginning of the month to +150, the systematic selling pressure in U.S. stocks has significantly eased since mid-November. Institutional models for December are expected to shift from net selling to about $4.7 billion in net buying, indicating that the traditional "Santa rally" has not completely vanished, but its initiation still depends on whether this week's data supports the rate cut path.

In the cryptocurrency market, Huobi HTX data shows that Bitcoin has recently climbed back above $85,000 after experiencing nearly a 30% deep correction since its October peak, but overall it remains in a phase of "weak sentiment + thin liquidity." ETFs continue to see moderate net outflows, and Coinbase premiums remain low, indicating that institutions are still on the sidelines. Options data shows a typical risk-averse structure: short-term IV is significantly higher than long-term, and the 25-delta put skew is negative across all maturities, suggesting that investors are still willing to pay high prices for downside protection, reflecting high expectations for short-term volatility.

Trend lines are not yet clear, macro data will become a watershed

Overall, the current cryptocurrency market is in a sensitive period of "ambiguous prospects, but bottom structure gradually emerging." If this week's U.S. data presents a combination of "growth slowing but not falling into recession, inflation marginally retreating," then Bitcoin and mainstream assets will experience a natural corrective rally, with IV likely to decline rapidly, and short volatility strategies will become effective again. Conversely, if manufacturing, employment, or PCE shows significantly stronger-than-expected readings, cooling rate cut expectations, then in the weak liquidity environment of the holiday season, the cryptocurrency market may again experience a rapid downturn.

In the current situation, the risks faced by heavily positioned single-direction strategies have increased. From a structural perspective, the market often sees behaviors of gradual long positioning in low-range areas, while short-term IV remains relatively high, providing hedging opportunities. The $80,000 to $82,000 range for Bitcoin is still seen as important support, but whether the trend can reverse will depend on this week's macro data providing clearer directional signals.

Note: The content of this article is not investment advice and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, or recommendation of investment products.

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