QCP: Bitcoin has risen above the key level of $88,000, and options data indicates that the market is likely to remain volatile rather than crash

QCP published a daily market analysis stating, "Bitcoin has rebounded above the key level of $88,000. Recently, a drop below this level often triggers a rapid downward move dominated by liquidations; however, if it can quickly recover, it will pull the price back into the consolidation range. Next, the market will face a series of intense U.S. macro events: the FOMC interest rate decision; the government funding deadline, which keeps the risk of a shutdown alive; and the Senate rescheduling discussions on cryptocurrency market structure legislation. The options market clearly reflects this asymmetry. Overall volatility remains controlled, and the term structure maintains a positive spread, so the baseline scenario remains consolidation rather than a crash.

In terms of fiscal risk, the key issue is whether Washington can successfully resolve the funding issue. If a temporary solution can be passed in time, short-term risk premiums are expected to compress, and crypto assets will resemble pure Beta trades; if there is a brief misstep, the market may initially fluctuate but will rebound after an agreement is reached; if the deadlock continues, it could tighten liquidity and force the market to undergo broader de-risking. A closer key point is the Federal Reserve. The baseline expectation remains unchanged interest rates, with market focus on when rate cuts will resume. Inflation is still above 2%, while employment is starting to weaken, causing the committee to remain cautious and data-dependent.

Against the backdrop of concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, it is expected to emphasize its independence and reiterate the statement of "waiting for more data"; if there is a hawkish pause, it may trigger a rebound in the dollar and lead to short-term volatility in risk assets."