Cryptocurrency Market Performance

Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $2.43 trillion, with ++BTC++ accounting for 59%, or $1.43 trillion. The market capitalization of stablecoins is $31.77 billion, increasing by 0.28% over the past 7 days, with ++USDT++ making up 57.96%.
Among the top 200 projects on ++CoinMarketCap++, most have risen while a few have fallen, including: ++BTC++ with a 7-day increase of 7.38%, ETH with a 7-day increase of 5.89%, SOL with a 7-day increase of 4.68%, ++SIREN++ with a 7-day increase of 297.2%, and ++MON++ with a 7-day increase of 36.9%.
This week, the net inflow for the U.S. ++Bitcoin++ spot ETF was $770 million; the net inflow for the U.S. ++Ethereum++ spot ETF was $180 million.
Market Forecast (April 13 - April 19):
The RSI index is at 52.88 (neutral, higher than last week), the Fear and Greed Index is at 17 (extreme fear), and the Altcoin Season Index is at 34 (neutral).
++BTC++: $68,000-74,000 (if it holds above $70,600, it is bullish; if it falls below $69,000, caution is needed)
++ETH++: $2,150-2,360 (has broken above $2,150, looking up to $2,360)
++SOL++: $80-90 (building a bottom near $80, with maximum upward elasticity)
Main Risks:

• Geopolitical Reversals. Oil prices and inflation expectations are impacted; this week's rebound mainly relies on the sentiment recovery from the U.S.-Iran ceasefire. If the situation reverses, the market will quickly turn.
• Weak On-Chain Demand --- Rebound Lacks Foundation. Although the BTC price rebounded above $72,000, on-chain data shows this rise lacks real buying support, driven more by derivatives and short-term sentiment.
• Structural Fragility --- SOL Network Risks. Especially in an overall tight liquidity environment, the unique risks of certain assets (like SOL) may trigger a chain reaction.

Understanding Now

• U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Ignites Market, Bitcoin Surges Past $72,500

This week's biggest market catalyst comes from geopolitical events. In the early hours of April 8, as Iran accepted the ceasefire proposal and the U.S. suspended military strikes, market sentiment quickly reversed. Bitcoin surged from around $68,000, briefly breaking $72,500, reaching a new high since March, with a 24-hour increase of over 5%.

• Epic Short Squeeze: Over $627 Million Liquidated Across the Network

The sudden surge led to a large amount of short positions being liquidated. Data from April 8 shows that the total liquidation amount across the network in 24 hours was approximately $627 million, with short liquidations reaching as high as $473 million. Bitcoin and Ethereum contributed approximately $276 million and $121 million to the liquidation amounts, respectively.

• Market Reversal Amid "Extreme Fear": Ending the Longest Fear Cycle

Just before the rebound, on April 6, the Fear and Greed Index fell to 12, in the "extreme fear" range, and had been in this state for over 17 days, setting a record since 2026. As the situation clarified, market sentiment significantly recovered to a neutral to optimistic stance before the weekend.

• Institutional Funds Flow Back: ETF Sees Over $470 Million Inflow in One Day

On Monday (April 7), when the market was extremely pessimistic, institutions began to position themselves in the opposite direction. On that day, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of $471.3 million, sweeping away the downturn since early April. Meanwhile, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) purchased 45,000 BTC within 30 days, setting a record for the highest monthly increase in nearly a year.

• Inverse Relationship Between Oil Prices and Cryptocurrency Prices: Strait of Hormuz Becomes Key

This week, the inverse relationship between oil prices and cryptocurrency prices became evident. Due to an attack on Iran's largest oil export base, Khark Island, oil prices surged to $116, suppressing risk assets. With the ceasefire agreement reached, oil prices fell back to around $100, directly triggering a recovery in risk appetite in the cryptocurrency market.

• Historic Moment for Hong Kong: First Batch of Stablecoin Licenses Officially Announced

On the afternoon of April 10, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority officially announced the first batch of stablecoin licenses. It is reported that the authority received 36 applications, with only 2-3 licenses issued in the first batch, and the regulatory standards are strict. Following this news, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks related to digital currencies collectively surged in the afternoon, with Guotai Junan International rising nearly 40% at one point.

• Miners Under Pressure: Prices Below Production Costs, Hash Rate Declines

Despite the price rebound over the weekend, early data this week shows that the estimated production cost of Bitcoin is around $77,000-87,000, while the market price fell to as low as $67,000, about 20% below the cost. The total network hash rate has dropped to around 870 EH/s, a 10% decline from its peak, and mining difficulty has been adjusted downwards for three consecutive times, putting inefficient miners at risk of shutting down.

• U.S. Regulatory Expectations: The Clarity Act Becomes a New Focus

The main storyline in market trading, besides the ceasefire, also includes U.S. cryptocurrency legislation. Analysts point out that whether the bull market can continue depends on two catalysts: a sustained ceasefire cooling oil prices and the anticipated passage of the U.S. Clarity Act in late April. The market predicts a 72% probability of the bill's passage.

• AI Sector Faces "Decentralization" Trust Crisis

As mainstream markets rebound, the leading AI sector project Bittensor (++TAO++) fell nearly 10% against the trend. This is due to the AI subnet project Covenant AI announcing its exit from the network, accusing co-founder Jacob Steeves of actually controlling the network, claiming that the so-called "decentralization" is merely a facade. This incident has raised deep concerns in the market regarding the governance of decentralized AI projects.

• Sector Rotation: SocialFi and DePIN Stand Out

As market sentiment recovers, there is a noticeable rotation of funds. The SocialFi sector leads the gains, with Toncoin (++TON++) and Chiliz (++CHZ++) performing strongly. Additionally, the DePIN and RWA sectors also recorded over 3% gains, indicating a trend of funds flowing back from purely speculative MEME coins to "sector stocks" with business fundamentals.

Macroeconomics

• On April 9, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending April 4 was 219,000, expected to be 210,000.
• On April 9, the U.S. core PCE price index year-on-year for February was 3%, expected to be 3%.
• On April 10, the U.S. unadjusted CPI year-on-year for March was 3.3%, the highest since May 2024, in line with market expectations, previous value was 2.40%.
• On April 9, according to CME "FedWatch" data, after today's U.S. CPI data is released, the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike by the Fed in April is currently reported at 1.6%, while the probability of maintaining the current interest rate is 98.4%.

ETF

According to statistics, from April 6 to April 10, the net inflow of ++U.S. Bitcoin Spot ETF++ was $770 million; as of April 10, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of $25.989 billion, currently holding $11.265 billion, and IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $57.574 billion. The total market capitalization of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs is $93.989 billion.
++U.S. Ethereum Spot ETF++ net inflow was $180 million.

Envisioning the Future

Industry Conferences

• GOAT Network will hold an offline event themed "How to Make Your First Money with AI Agents" on April 11, 2026, from 14:00 to 15:00 in Beijing.
• Blockchain Forum Russia 2026 will be held from April 14 to 15 in Moscow, Russia.
• Paris Blockchain Week 2026 will be held from April 15 to 16 in Paris, France.
• Hong Kong Web3 Carnival 2026 will be held from April 20 to 23, 2026, in Hong Kong, China.
• Bitcoin Las Vegas 2026 will be held from April 27 to 29 in Las Vegas, USA.

Project Progress

• The deadline for claiming the Fogo airdrop is April 15, 2026.
• UX Chain will gradually suspend operations, expected to be fully shut down by May 15.
• Yupp.ai will shut down, and the website will remain available for users to download data until April 15.
• Latin American e-commerce giant Mercado Libre will close its platform token Mercado Coin on April 17.

Important Events

• On April 16 at 20:30, the U.S. will announce the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending April 11 (in ten thousand).
• Latin American e-commerce giant Mercado Libre will close its platform token Mercado Coin on April 17.
• Director Carl Rinsch of "The47 Ronin" is accused of defrauding Netflix of $11 million for purchasing cryptocurrencies and luxury goods; he will be sentenced on April 17, 2026, facing up to 90 years in prison.

Token Unlocking

• Starknet (++STRK++) will unlock 127 million tokens on April 15, valued at approximately $4.38 million, accounting for 4.22% of the circulating supply.
• Sei (++SEI++) will unlock 55.55 million tokens on April 15, valued at approximately $3.17 million, accounting for 0.97% of the circulating supply.
• Arbitrum (++ARB++) will unlock 92.65 million tokens on April 16, valued at approximately $10.29 million, accounting for 1.75% of the circulating supply.
• ZKsync (++ZK++) will unlock 173 million tokens on April 17, valued at approximately $2.67 million, accounting for 2.88% of the circulating supply.

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++Hotcoin Research++ is the core research institution of Hotcoin Exchange, dedicated to transforming professional analysis into your practical tools. We analyze market trends through "Weekly Insights" and "In-Depth Reports"; leveraging our exclusive column "++Hotcoin Selection++" (AI + expert dual screening), we identify potential assets and reduce trial-and-error costs. Every week, our researchers will also interact with you through live broadcasts, interpreting hot topics and predicting trends. We believe that warm companionship and professional guidance can help more investors navigate cycles and seize the value opportunities of Web3.