Data: The market's long and short competition intensifies, with the spot CVD turning negative indicating increased selling pressure, but ETF capital inflow provides support

Glassnode's latest report indicates that although buying interest remains strong, providing some buffer for prices, market sentiment is turning cautious. Data shows that the cumulative volume delta (CVD) has shifted from positive to negative, selling pressure is rising, and bearish sentiment is beginning to emerge.

Meanwhile, centralized exchanges are active, and market participation remains high. In the futures market, the increase in open interest indicates a rise in risk appetite, but the funding rate for long positions has significantly decreased, and the CVD for perpetual contracts has sharply declined, suggesting that traders are more willing to pay a premium to short, while buyer initiative is weakening and bearish sentiment is intensifying.

In the options market, the demand for downside protection has decreased, which may ease bearish sentiment, but the contraction in open interest could indicate profit-taking, affecting subsequent volatility. The narrowing of volatility spreads suggests that market sentiment is shifting from risk pricing to neutral.

The ETF sector has become a highlight, with the MVRV ratio and net inflows of U.S. spot ETFs rising, profitability and investor interest strengthening, and trading activity significantly increasing, indicating a growing enthusiasm for participating in Bitcoin through regulated channels, with market sentiment being cautiously optimistic.

In terms of liquidity, the share of hot money has decreased, and the negative change in realized market value has narrowed, indicating that old money is dominating and net outflows are easing. The supply ratio between short-term and long-term holders remains stable, and long-term holders' confidence is solid.