1. Ceasefire Game: The "Open" and "Not Open" of the Strait of Hormuz

In April 2026, the fate of the Strait of Hormuz once again became a core variable disturbing global risk assets. On April 9, the temporary ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran officially took effect, and global markets reacted optimistically: Brent crude oil plummeted from a high, Bitcoin briefly broke through $71,000, and $427 million in cryptocurrency shorts were forcibly liquidated within 48 hours. However, the "honeymoon period" of the ceasefire lasted only a few hours.

There are fundamental disagreements in the content of the ceasefire agreement. The Trump administration announced the "full opening" of the Strait of Hormuz; however, Iran only committed that vessels must "coordinate with the Iranian armed forces" to pass through, with daily transit limited to about 10 ships, while the pre-war daily traffic exceeded 130 ships, with a recovery ratio of less than 8%. Hundreds of vessels remain stranded in the region, in a de facto trapped state.

More concerning is that Iran is advancing the imposition of a "toll" on passing vessels, with a rate of about $1 per barrel of oil, and requiring payment in cryptocurrency. This move not only reshapes the global energy transportation cost structure but also signifies that Bitcoin is being embedded in the international energy trade settlement system in an unprecedented way. Terry Haynes, an analyst at Pangaea Policy Company, succinctly stated: "Regardless of whether an agreement is reached, this will become the new normal."

On April 12, the third round of negotiations in Islamabad broke down, and both sides left the table. As a result, Bitcoin fell to around $69,000, and the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies evaporated by over $100 billion in a single day. However, on April 17, the situation turned again, with Bitcoin surging to a high of $78,000, causing nearly 170,000 people to be liquidated amid the volatility