BIT Research: Multiple signals strengthening simultaneously, has the Bitcoin recovery market already started?

In the past two reports, it was suggested that the Bitcoin bear market phase may be nearing its end. Currently, as the price has regained key technical levels, multiple indicators such as trend models, the 21-week moving average, and on-chain capital flows are resonating, and the market's confidence in this judgment is gradually increasing. Meanwhile, the $73,000 level has consistently been an important watershed since March 2024 and is a key threshold for confirming whether this trend can reverse.

From a price structure perspective, Bitcoin has returned above the 21-week moving average, which holds significant meaning in the bull-bear judgment framework. At the same time, the monthly RSI and weekly stochastic oscillator are both in the historically corresponding bottom area, further reinforcing the judgment that the market is transitioning from a phase of bottoming to a phase of recovery. Although short-term fluctuations may still be affected by macro variables, under the backdrop of gradual technical recovery, Bitcoin's trend is beginning to exhibit structural characteristics transitioning from "rebound" to "trend recovery."

Technical Signal Resonance: Key Averages and Trend Models Point to Recovery Phase

Currently, Bitcoin's price has regained the 21-week moving average, a signal that has historically been viewed as an important confirmation condition for entering a new upward cycle. If the weekly close can stabilize above this level, the market is likely to shift from a consolidation recovery phase to a trend-driven rise.

From historical backtesting, the 21-week moving average not only effectively identifies trend reversals but has also helped investors avoid significant drawdowns during the 2021/2022 bear market. In this cycle, if the price confirms stability in the $78,000–$79,000 range, this indicator may trigger an entry signal again.

Meanwhile, the trend model has turned bullish. Considering that Bitcoin has strong trends and high volatility characteristics, after multiple signals in the past, this trend has stronger continuation conditions. Multiple technical indicators synchronously strengthening across different time dimensions makes the current market environment closer to the key phase of historical upward recovery from a bottom.

Capital Recovery Accelerates: Multi-Channel Inflows Support Market Structure Improvement

As the technical landscape strengthens, changes in capital are further reinforcing this trend. Since April, stablecoins, Bitcoin ETFs, futures leverage, and Strategy buying have collectively brought about approximately $18.7 billion in capital inflows, raising overall capital inflow to a high level since July 2025.

On-chain data also shows that after experiencing about $25 billion in capital outflows, the market's capital has begun to warm up, and the recovery speed is significantly faster than in the 2022 cycle. This indicates that the market structure after this round of adjustment is completing rebalancing more quickly.

It is noteworthy that Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) continues to finance and buy Bitcoin through the STRC tool. This year, its cumulative financing scale has reached about $11 billion, providing stable buying support for the market. As long as the STRC interest rate spread remains within a reasonable range, this financing mechanism can continue to operate and continuously convert into new demand. Capital inflows are no longer reliant on a single channel but are improving from multiple dimensions, which reduces the probability of Bitcoin experiencing a significant drop again and provides a foundation for subsequent price advancement toward the $88,000 target range.

Overall, Bitcoin is currently in a critical phase transitioning from "technical recovery" to "capital-driven recovery." The resonance of multiple indicators such as trend models, the 21-week moving average, RSI, and on-chain capital flows often corresponds historically to the market moving from a phase of rebound to a trend recovery window. Meanwhile, the improvement in capital is accelerating and is more diversified, making the market structure more stable than in previous cycles.

However, macro variables may still bring about temporary disturbances, such as uncertainties in the Federal Reserve's policy path or changes in the STRC interest rate spread, which may affect short-term rhythms. Bitcoin is unlikely to exhibit a unilateral rapid rise; it is more likely to gradually increase amidst fluctuations. But from the current combination of technical and capital aspects, the market direction is clearer than before, and trend recovery is gradually unfolding.

The above opinions are partly derived from BIT on Target. Contact us to obtain the complete report of BIT on Target.

Disclaimer: The market has risks, and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice. Trading in digital assets may carry significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. BIT is not responsible for any investment decisions based on the information provided in this content.