Galaxy Research: The bottom of this round for Bitcoin has not yet formed, expected to be between $40,000 and $46,000

According to a report by Galaxy Research, the four-year cycle pattern of Bitcoin remains effective, but the volatility of each cycle is narrowing.

The report points out that the peak-to-trough declines in the cycles of 2013, 2017, and 2021 were 85%, 84%, and 77% respectively, while the maximum drawdown in this cycle from the peak in October 2025 to now is only 51%.

Due to the relatively mild peak in this cycle, Galaxy believes that the bottom of this cycle will also be relatively shallow, with the baseline scenario expected to be in the range of $40,000 to $46,000, potentially before the fourth quarter of 2026.

The report emphasizes that only 8 months have passed since the peak, which is far less than the 12-13 months typically required for the formation of a historical cycle bottom, and most cycle bottom signals have not yet appeared, indicating that the bottom of this cycle has not yet formed.