Daily Observation of Cryptocurrency Concept Stocks: US-Iran Agreement + FOMC Decision Tomorrow — Can BlackRock IBIT End the Longest Net Outflow Cycle in ETF History

Why the Longest Historical Net Outflow of IBIT Coincided with the Situation in Iran

Bitcoin fell from a high of about $82,500 in May to a low of $59,227 in early June, a decline of about 28%. During this period, the spot ETF recorded net outflows for over 13 consecutive trading days, totaling over $4.4 billion. Bitget analysis pointed out that this decline was not driven by a single factor but was the result of four pressures converging simultaneously: first, the Federal Reserve's policy path shifted from expectations of "multiple rate cuts" to "maintaining or even possibly raising rates"—the April FOMC saw the most dissenting votes since 1992 (8-4 ratio), strongly hinting at a hawkish dominance; second, the US-Iran conflict, which erupted on February 28, continued to push up oil prices, exacerbating inflation expectations; third, Strategy's first net reduction of 32 BTC (at the end of May) disrupted the market narrative of "always accumulating"; fourth, concentrated liquidation of leveraged positions intensified the waterfall effect. Understanding the rhythm of the release of these four pressures is the core framework for judging when the fund flows of IBIT will reverse.

US-Iran Agreement: Direct and Indirect Effects of Diminishing Geopolitical Premium

On June 15, CoinDesk reported that the US and Iran reached a significant agreement over the weekend (June 14-15), leading to a sharp decline in oil prices and a comprehensive improvement in equity market sentiment, but the response from the crypto market was relatively cautious—"crypto traders have learned to distrust this particular headline," because in the past few months, the US-Iran tensions had repeatedly shown a pattern of temporary easing followed by escalation. For IBIT, the impact of the US-Iran agreement can be viewed on two levels: the direct level is the drop in oil prices → cooling inflation expectations → reduced pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise rates → upward shift in the valuation center of risk assets; the indirect level is the reduction of global macro uncertainty → improvement in institutional investors' risk appetite → increased relative attractiveness of Bitcoin in diversified allocations. Historically, after each significant geopolitical risk diminishes, the average daily inflow of IBIT usually returns to a positive state within 2-4 weeks.

Kevin Warsh's First FOMC: The Dot Plot as a Core Observational Variable

Kevin Warsh officially took office as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve on May 22, and this FOMC (June 16-17) is his first meeting as chair; FedWatch data shows that the market assigns a 97.4% probability to no rate hike this time, but the real key is not this rate decision, but the updated dot plot—which reflects the collective judgment of FOMC members on the interest rate path for the remainder of 2026. The impact of three scenarios on IBIT is significantly different: if the dot plot maintains at least one rate cut in 2026 (most optimistic), it will trigger a weakening of the dollar and a comprehensive rebound in risk assets, with IBIT likely recording large net inflows on June 18-19; if the dot plot suggests zero rate cuts in 2026 (neutral), the market will maintain its current state, and IBIT inflows will return steadily; if Warsh announces the abolition of the dot plot (most uncertain), it will trigger a reset of the communication framework, causing additional volatility in the short term, but long-term it will reduce the market manipulation effect of "Fed watching," structurally supporting Bitcoin's narrative as an "independent currency."

The Structural Demand for IBIT Has Not Disappeared, Only Temporarily Diverted

An analysis report from intellectia.ai pointed out that the continuous net outflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs since mid-May does not indicate that institutional structural demand for Bitcoin has disappeared—over the past year, IBIT has accumulated from zero to about 800,000 BTC (approximately $49-52 billion), establishing the world's largest passive Bitcoin holding base; the recent outflows more reflect IPO subscriptions (SpaceX $75 billion), rebalancing of interest rate-sensitive assets, and systemic deleveraging induced by geopolitical factors, rather than a loss of conviction. Three turning signals will jointly confirm the start of a new net inflow cycle for IBIT: first, three consecutive trading days of net inflows; second, BTC stabilizing above $65,000; third, no unexpected hawkish statements from the FOMC. The two macro nodes today and tomorrow will determine whether these three signals can be satisfied simultaneously—if realized, BlackRock's wealth management distribution network (including cooperation with Morgan Stanley's wealth advisors) will become the fastest conduit for institutional funds to return.

Data source: https://bbx.com/ Cryptocurrency concept stock information database, compiled based on yesterday's announcements from global listed companies and SEC/TSE disclosure documents.