A New Order in the Crypto Market Under Liquidity Repricing | HTX Research Releases Quarterly Outlook Report, Analyzing Q3 Strategy Framework

Recently, HTX Research, the exclusive research department under Huobi HTX, released the forward-looking report for the third quarter of 2026 titled "Liquidity Defines the Crypto Market: A New Crypto Order Under Global Liquidity Repricing." In the report, HTX Research uses the market changes that occurred in the second quarter as a starting point, focusing on the two main lines of liquidity and regulation, providing a comprehensive assessment for the next phase.

Read the full report: https://square.htx.com/zh/htx-research-quarterly-strategy-2026-q3-liquidity-defines-crypto-a-new-crypto-order-under-global-liquidity-repricing-2/

The launch of the quarterly outlook stems from Huobi HTX's observation of users' real needs: in an information-overloaded and frequently shifting narrative crypto market, what users need more is an analytical thread that can penetrate the noise and clarify the mid-term main lines. HTX Research, on a quarterly basis, integrates macro liquidity, policy regulation, and on-chain fundamentals into a unified framework, helping users understand the deeper drivers of the market beyond price fluctuations, thereby clarifying trends and building their own strategic frameworks.

Looking back at the recently concluded second quarter, HTX Research believes that the price pullback of crypto assets is essentially a global liquidity repricing driven by macro factors, and the long-term logic and fundamentals of the crypto industry have not been reversed as a result. The quadruple forces of the Federal Reserve's hawkish policy shift, a stronger dollar, a reversal of funds flowing into spot ETFs, and a cooling of corporate treasury buying have collectively raised funding costs and compressed market risk budgets. This round of adjustment is significantly different from the previous bear market: the latter was driven by internal credit collapses and damaged institutional trust, while this round of pressure is concentrated at the macro level, with rising funding costs and the disappearance of marginal buying being the main reasons. This judgment is clearly supported by data: Bitcoin fell from a peak of about $82,000 in mid-May to about $59,000 in June, compressing the peak-to-trough valuation by about 24%; nearly $4.9 billion net outflow occurred in spot Bitcoin ETFs in May and June, with previous core marginal buying turning into selling pressure.

Based on this background, HTX Research makes three judgments about various assets. First, the mid-term trend of Bitcoin is still determined by global dollar liquidity, and geopolitical conflicts such as the situation in Iran only change short-term risk preferences. In the second quarter, gold outperformed Bitcoin at one point, confirming that its pricing logic is now closer to global liquidity assets. Second, the market is no longer willing to pay a premium for simple narratives; the differentiation of ETH, DeFi, and altcoins indicates that ecological activity, TVL, and user growth must be converted into transaction fees, revenue, destruction, or clear token value capture to support valuations. Finally, the price pullback has not interrupted the expansion of infrastructure; the tokenized RWA (excluding stablecoins) grew from about $29.49 billion to $32.28 billion in the second quarter, with tokenized U.S. Treasury contributing the main increment, while stablecoin settlement, on-chain securities, and institutional compliance channels are also advancing simultaneously.

Regarding the third quarter, the report points out that the market direction will depend on two conditions that are yet to be confirmed: whether global liquidity can stop deteriorating, and whether regulatory certainty can release institutional risk budgets.

Accordingly, HTX Research proposes three observation variables that need to be continuously tracked: first, whether the Federal Reserve will continue its hawkish response function; second, the U.S. Treasury's bond issuance pace and the liquidity draining effect of TGA reconstruction (after the RRP buffer is nearly exhausted, TGA has replaced traditional QT as a more critical liquidity variable); third, the legislative process of the CLARITY Act. This act has passed markup in the Senate Banking Committee by a vote of 15 to 9 and is included in the legislative agenda; whether it can cross the 60-vote threshold will be the biggest policy variable for the third quarter.

On this basis, the report constructs three scenarios and their probabilities: in the baseline scenario (60%), liquidity improves slightly, regulation continues to advance but has not fully materialized, and the market is more likely to show structural repair; the optimistic scenario (25%) corresponds to falling inflation, a weaker dollar, and regulatory progress exceeding expectations; the pessimistic scenario (15%) arises from renewed shocks in energy prices and further liquidity contraction.

At the same time, the report outlines the sensitivity of various assets to the above two main lines. Bitcoin is viewed as a proxy variable for global liquidity, often reflecting marginal changes in liquidity first; RWA is seen as a structural main line that can traverse cycles, supported by high interest rates and institutional compliance needs; the revaluation of quality DeFi depends more on real income, risk governance, and value capture ability rather than TVL scale; the recovery of ETH awaits further confirmation from transaction fees, destruction, and ETF fund flows. HTX Research judges that the market in the third quarter will not reward all risks; liquidity, cash flow, and compliance pathways will become key to distinguishing asset performance.

Through this report, HTX Research aims to help global Huobi HTX users clearly outline the key variables and verification signals for the third quarter, providing a reference analysis basis for them to judge market direction in a complex macro environment. In the future, HTX Research will continue to release the "Quarterly Outlook" and other high-quality investment research content, updating the assessment framework in sync with the evolution of macro and policy environments, providing stable support for users to track market trends and refine strategic thinking over the long term.

Note: This article does not constitute investment advice.

About HTX Research

HTX Research is the exclusive research department under Huobi HTX, responsible for in-depth analysis of a wide range of fields including cryptocurrencies, blockchain technology, and emerging market trends, writing comprehensive reports, and providing professional assessments. HTX Research is committed to providing data-driven insights and strategic foresight, playing a key role in shaping industry views and supporting informed decision-making in the digital asset space. With rigorous research methods and cutting-edge data analysis, HTX Research consistently stands at the forefront of innovation, leading the development of industry thought and promoting a deeper understanding of the ever-changing market dynamics. Visit us.