CryptoQuant: The next parabolic market for Bitcoin may require over $1 trillion in new funds

According to CryptoQuant data, the capital efficiency of Bitcoin in each bull market cycle is significantly decreasing. In the 2011 cycle, approximately $2.8 billion in net inflows drove a rise of about 55,000%; in 2015, about $69 billion corresponded to nearly 10,000%; in 2018, about $365 billion corresponded to about 2,000%; and in this cycle since 2022, about $697 billion has only produced a 689% return.

In 2011, about $5 million in new funds could double the price of Bitcoin, while this cycle requires about $101 billion. CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju stated that this means Bitcoin needs to become a core macro asset rather than just a retail-driven ETF trade. The next parabolic market needs to attract over $1 trillion in new funds, far exceeding the current level of institutional adoption. However, this argument faces real challenges: the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has seen record outflows in the past month, Bitcoin ended the first half of the year at a loss, and retail funds are withdrawing rather than institutional funds accelerating inflows.