$6.4 billion Bitcoin options expire on Friday, which may exacerbate market volatility

According to CoinDesk, approximately 81,700 Bitcoin options contracts (with a nominal value of about $6.4 billion) on Deribit will expire on Friday at 08:00 UTC. The number of call options exceeds that of put options, with a put/call ratio of 0.83, and the maximum pain point is at $68,000. The $80,000 strike price holds $157 million in nominal value of call options, while the $75,000 strike price has the largest open interest in call options, reaching $236 million.

Shaun Fernando, Chief Risk Officer of Deribit, stated that nearly 20% of Deribit's Bitcoin open contracts are about to expire, combined with factors such as severe market volatility, the volatility term structure shifting from backwardation to contango, a relative increase of 30% in DVOL, and a shift from negative to positive skew in call-put options, this will be a "noteworthy expiration date." Bitcoin surged from about $62,000 to $80,000 within a week, marking the second-largest weekly gain in years, with a large number of call options with strike prices below $80,000 entering in-the-money status.

Fernando pointed out that over $500 million in nominal value is within a 5% volatility range of the current price, which may trigger more intense gamma hedging before expiration, leading to a "pinning" effect around key strike prices or accelerating a breakout beyond these levels. Dynamic hedging conducted by market makers to manage exposure may cause Bitcoin prices to fluctuate around dominant strike prices like $80,000, and once a decisive breakout occurs at that level, it could trigger a larger market movement.