Data: Polymarket "The next Claude Opus model will be released on September 22" probability rises to 77%, up 50% in 24 hours

PPP market prediction tool monitoring shows that the probability of "Polymarket's next Claude Opus model being released on September 22" has risen to 77%, up 50% in 24 hours. Only the new model officially named "Opus" by Anthropic counts, such as Claude Opus 5.1, Opus 5.5, Opus 6, etc. Other names like Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, Mythos do not count unless officially named Opus by Anthropic.

The release time is based on the calendar date in Eastern Time, USA. It must be genuinely open to the public to trigger settlement. Public beta and open rolling waitlists count; closed beta, invitation-only, or private access do not count. If the model name, placeholder, or labeling error appears only on Anthropic's official website, but the model is not actually available for public use, it does not count as released. The final settlement will primarily rely on official information from Anthropic, verified with credible media reports.