Nine cryptocurrency companies established the Quantum Alliance, aiming to defend against quantum risks to 6.4 million bitcoins

According to CoinDesk, nine cryptocurrency companies announced the establishment of a Quantum Alliance on Thursday, planning to develop universal security standards for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other blockchain networks to address the threats posed by future quantum computers.

The alliance estimates that about 6.4 million Bitcoins, or 30.2% of the supply, have their public keys exposed, and future quantum computers could reverse-engineer wallet public keys to recover private keys and steal assets. The alliance explained that since no quantum computer currently has sufficient computing power, these Bitcoins cannot be stolen in this manner for the time being. Members include Hacken, Midnight Foundation under Charles Hoskinson, the quantum-resistant layer one blockchain Quantus, and Postquant Labs.

There are significant differences in the industry regarding when the quantum threat will arrive. Bryn Bennett, Chief Revenue Officer of The Vault, stated that no one knows the exact date, but estimates are continuously being revised downward, and this risk can be planned for in advance. The question for custodians is not whether the threat will appear in 2028 or 2035, but whether they can complete the migration if it arrives earlier.

Richard Carback, Chief Technology Officer of Postquant Labs, believes that it is realistic for machines capable of breaking existing cryptography to emerge by 2028. Recent research has lowered the estimates of the computing power required to attack Bitcoin and Ethereum, but currently, no existing machines can break their cryptography, and related predictions remain controversial.

The question of whether to freeze vulnerable Bitcoins has also sparked debate. Bennett pointed out that no one is responsible for this issue; custodians only protect client assets, not abandoned assets. Freezing tokens is a governance decision of the Bitcoin network, and any freeze would set a precedent of exchanging quantum risk for property rights and neutrality. Carback prefers to transfer vulnerable tokens and suggested placing them in a trust, allowing holders who can prove ownership to reclaim their funds.

Binance founder Changpeng Zhao once suggested that if quantum technology advances and Satoshi Nakamoto's approximately 1.1 million Bitcoins remain untouched, they should be frozen; Bitcoin developer Jameson Lopp also proposed limiting vulnerable tokens to prevent theft, but critics argue that freezing someone else's Bitcoins contradicts the promise that no one can confiscate Bitcoins. Achieving quantum resistance requires replacing the digital signatures that authorize transactions, which necessitates consensus among developers, miners, wallet service providers, exchanges, and users. The new signatures may also occupy more block space, increasing transaction fees or reducing the number of transactions Bitcoin can process.