Bitget UEX Daily Report｜Inflation Exceeds Expectations Pressures US Stocks, NVIDIA Falls Another 5%, Gold Drops Below 4100 USD

I. Selected Hot News

U.S. Inflation | CPI Exceeds Expectations, Market Reprices Rate Hike Intensity

The U.S. October CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month, higher than the market expectation of 0.3%; core CPI increased by 0.3%, exceeding the expected 0.2%. Housing and food prices continue to rise, indicating that inflationary pressures have not quickly dissipated with the decline in oil prices. Due to missing survey data from the same period last year, most indicators do not have comparable year-on-year readings.

Market focus has shifted to the rate hike magnitude in December. Waller suggested that if the inflation situation worsens, a 50 basis point rate hike should be considered; higher interest rate expectations have pushed up U.S. Treasury yields and raised the profit threshold required for tech stock valuations.

Energy | Crude Oil Hits New Low, Risk Premium Continues to Decline

Brent crude for January 2027 settled at $91.49 per barrel, while WTI December futures settled at $86.04 per barrel, down approximately 1.2% and 0.9%, respectively, both at their lowest levels since the end of August. The U.S. has downplayed the necessity for further military action against Iran, easing concerns about supply disruptions, but Iran has stated that there are currently no negotiations, and oil prices recovered some losses during the session.

The decline in oil prices helps alleviate subsequent cost pressures, but the currently published CPI reflects price changes from the previous month. The timing of the two is different, so "oil down, rates up, stocks down" can occur simultaneously.

Household Credit | U.S. Household Debt Rises to $19.1 Trillion

The New York Fed announced that U.S. household debt increased by $334 billion in the third quarter to approximately $19.1 trillion, with credit card balances around $1.29 trillion. The proportion of debt in some overdue status rose to 5.0%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous quarter, but the trends of new delinquencies vary across different loan categories.

High interest rates are compressing the consumption space for some households. Future assessments need to consider bank credit losses and consumer company performance to judge the extent of pressure diffusion, rather than solely relying on the total debt increase to conclude that consumption has fully contracted.

II. Market Review

Commodity and Forex Performance

| Variety | Reference Price | Data Basis | |---------|----------------|------------| | Gold | $4,030.20 per ounce | December futures, settled on November 10 | | Silver | $51.30 per ounce | Spot, around 13:53 EST on November 10 | | WTI Crude Oil | $86.04 per barrel | December futures, settled on November 10 | | Brent Crude Oil | $91.49 per barrel | January 2027 futures, settled on November 10 | | U.S. Dollar Index | 102.24 | Around 09:09 Beijing time on November 11 | | U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield | 4.983% | Closing reference on November 10 |

Gold futures fell about 2%, reflecting the holding cost pressure brought by the rise in the dollar and yields. Rising inflation does not always push up gold: when the market first trades a stronger rate hike response, non-yielding assets may actually come under pressure.

Cryptocurrency Performance

BTC is reported at 73,485.77 USDT, down 2.19% in 24 hours; ETH is reported at 2,046.96 USDT, down 3.81% in 24 hours. The total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market is approximately $2.47 trillion, down 4.78% in 24 hours, with a 24-hour trading volume of about $79.11 billion; the total data update time is 09:10 Beijing time.

BTC/ETH liquidation zone observation: No verifiable latest liquidation zone has been obtained this time, so the upper and lower ranges, distances, or nearby liquidation judgments are not listed.

Institutional holding cost | BTC: Strategy's latest disclosure on November 9 shows that as of November 8, it held 850,364 BTC, with an overall average cost of $75,456, including fees. BTC is about 2.70% lower than this cost, in a reference floating loss state; this cost corresponds to the overall position and is not the average price of the most recent purchase.

In a nutshell: BTC has fallen to around $73,500, with ETH experiencing a larger decline, indicating that the cryptocurrency market is still under pressure from risk appetite and liquidity. Key observation is whether BTC can recover to $75,000 and near institutional costs; without effective liquidation charts, it is not possible to judge which side of leverage is more likely to be triggered.

Major U.S. Stock Index Performance

| Index | Closing Level | Change | |-------|---------------|--------| | Dow Jones Industrial Average | 52,231.89 | -0.30% | | S&P 500 Index | 7,520.93 | -0.38% | | Nasdaq Composite Index | 25,065.87 | -0.74% |

Anomaly Interpretation

Market performance: The three major indices retreated, with the Nasdaq experiencing the largest decline; among the seven tech giants, three rose and four fell, with Meta only slightly up, rounding to 0.00%. Nvidia fell 5.47%, Microsoft fell 2.20%, and Amazon rose 1.48%, indicating that not the entire tech sector is declining in unison.

Logic one: Inflation exceeded expectations, pushing rate pressure back to the forefront. Both CPI and core CPI were higher than expected, coupled with hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials, leading the market to consider the possibility of larger rate hikes. Rising yields decrease the present value of future earnings, putting pressure on high-valuation tech stocks.

Logic two: The benefits of lower oil prices have not yet translated into current inflation improvements. Falling energy prices help cool future prices, but housing, food, and other service prices remain sticky. The market needs more actual data to confirm whether inflationary pressures are continuously easing.

Logic three: Company risks amplified the drag from heavyweight stocks. The governance uncertainty brought by Nvidia's independent investigation, combined with macro pressures, caused its decline to far exceed the broader market; during the same period, Broadcom rose 3.91%, indicating that chip demand and company risks are still being priced separately.

Performance of the Seven Tech Giants

| Company | Closing Price (USD) | Change | |---------|---------------------|--------| | Nvidia NVDA | 168.89 | -5.47% | | Apple AAPL | 348.51 | -0.62% | | Microsoft MSFT | 533.16 | -2.20% | | Alphabet GOOGL | 287.38 | -0.27% | | Amazon AMZN | 270.87 | +1.48% | | Meta META | 641.39 | +0.00% | | Tesla TSLA | 379.78 | +0.46% |

Sector Anomaly Observation

Semiconductors: Nvidia and Broadcom show significant divergence in performance, with internal support remaining. The focus will be on orders, deliveries, and company investigation progress; the decline of a single leader should not be directly extrapolated to indicate a collapse in the entire AI supply chain demand.

Consumer Healthcare and Aerospace Components: Hims & Hers fell 16.61%, while TransDigm rose 0.55%. The former's profit margins and guidance are under pressure, while the latter shows strong organic growth, reflecting market differentiation in profit quality.

III. Key U.S. Stock Analysis

CoreWeave CRWV | Revenue Upgraded, Financing Costs Remain Key

Event Overview: The company announced third-quarter revenue of $3.661 billion after the market closed on November 10, with the full-year revenue guidance raised to $13.0 billion - $13.3 billion. Regular trading closed at $48.73, down 0.51%, occurring before the earnings report was released.

Market Interpretation: Quarterly operating profit was $207 million, net interest expense was $846 million, resulting in a final net loss of $709 million. Revenue realization has accelerated, but financing costs continue to erode operating earnings; revenue growth cannot be directly equated with profit improvement.

Investment Insight: Focus on how the full-year capital expenditure of $37 billion - $39 billion will be financed, and whether prepayments, deliveries, and revenue recovery can match. The key in the next phase is the speed at which growth converts to cash returns.

Hims & Hers HIMS | Revenue Growth Fails to Offset Margin Decline

Event Overview: The company released its earnings report the previous evening, showing third-quarter revenue of $890.4 million, a 49% year-on-year increase, but gross margin fell from 74% to 57%; the full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance was lowered to $257 million - $277 million. On November 10, the stock closed at $19.13, down 16.61%.

Market Interpretation: The core of the market's punishment is growth quality: revenue expansion has not led to a proportionate improvement in profits, and the business structure and increased investment have depressed profit conversion efficiency.

Investment Insight: Future observations should focus on whether gross margins can stabilize, whether customer acquisition investments can convert into repeat purchases, and whether international business growth can improve profits, rather than just expanding revenue scale.

TransDigm TDG | Organic Growth Supported, Watch for Interest Erosion

Event Overview: The company reported fourth-quarter sales of $2.988 billion, a 23% year-on-year increase, with organic growth of 14%; adjusted earnings per share were $12.44. The company provided adjusted earnings per share guidance for fiscal year 2027 of $47.09 - $47.94, with the stock price rising 0.55% to $1,225.54.

Market Interpretation: Demand for aerospace components and operational execution support growth, but net profit for the quarter still declined by 4%, which the company primarily attributes to higher interest and tax expenses. Adjusted earnings per share and GAAP net profit need to be viewed separately.

Investment Insight: Track aftermarket growth, mergers and acquisitions integration, and debt costs. In a rising interest rate environment, whether strong operational business can cover financing burdens directly impacts shareholder returns.

IV. Market and Project Dynamics

Cryptocurrency ETF funds continue to face pressure. As of the weekly statistics released on November 10, BTC and ETH spot ETFs had a combined net outflow of over $1 billion in the previous week. The distribution of funds is not uniform, and the weekly net outflow should not be interpreted as a single-day figure for November 10.

Stablecoin supply contraction. Weekly statistics during the same period show that the total supply of stablecoins decreased by about 1.4%. This increases the necessity to observe liquidity in the cryptocurrency market, but a reduction in supply cannot be equated to asset sell-offs on a one-to-one basis.

AI cloud orders await further verification. Nebius is scheduled to release its third-quarter results before the U.S. market opens on November 12, with a conference call at 21:00 Beijing time. CoreWeave has submitted its report, and the next step is to compare the demand, delivery, and financing situations of the two companies.

V. Today's Market Calendar

| Beijing Time | Country/Region | Event | Market Attention | |--------------|----------------|-------|------------------| | November 11 | U.S. | Veterans Day, U.S. fixed income market advised to close all day; U.S. stocks normal trading | ★★★★ | | November 11, 22:30 | U.S. | U.S. stock regular trading opens, observe reactions after CoreWeave earnings report | ★★★★ | | November 12, 21:00 | U.S. | Nebius third-quarter earnings conference call, preview for the next day | ★★★★ |

Key event preview: Today, there are fewer major macro data releases in the U.S., with focus shifting to stock pricing and company earnings after CPI. The bond market holiday means that current bond yields lack continuous verification, with key observations on whether tech stocks can absorb interest rate shocks and whether CoreWeave's upgraded guidance can drive the AI cloud sector.

Institutional views: Standard Chartered noted in its comments on November 10 that gold remains above the key $4,000 level, with oil, inflation risks, and stock market performance collectively influencing gold pricing, and the market is focused on December rate hike expectations. For gold, the next focus is whether yield and dollar pressures will ease.

This article is for market information reference only and does not constitute investment advice.