de-risking

According to a post by Binance Research, the escalation of geopolitical conflicts combined with a hawkish Federal Reserve has led to a global market experiencing oil-driven stagflation shocks, including: oil prices soaring: Brent crude up 7%, WTI crude up 4.2%; stock markets broadly declining: S&P 500 down 1.45%, Nasdaq down 1.25%, Russell 2000 down 1.64%; metals under pressure: gold down 3.6%, silver down 4.9%; dollar and U.S. Treasuries: the dollar index up 0.76%, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rising by 6.5 basis points, VIX fear index soaring 17% to 25; cryptocurrency market: Bitcoin down 4.6%, Ethereum down 5.2%.In terms of macro and Middle East dynamics, Iran has threatened to strike Gulf energy facilities following an Israeli attack on its largest gas field; Qatar's Ras Laffan Industrial City confirmed missile damage. Oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz remains 98% lower than pre-conflict levels. The Pentagon has requested the White House to approve over $200 billion in special funding for the war against Iran; the Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged, still expecting one rate cut within the year, but PPI data exceeded expectations (month-on-month 0.7%, expected 0.3%).France has expressed willingness to assist in ensuring the safety of the Strait of Hormuz after the intense phase of the conflict, while most European countries have refused to join U.S.-led actions. The market is experiencing a classic oil-driven stagflation shock, with the U.S. and Israel's first direct strike on Iranian upstream energy assets, combined with attacks on Qatari facilities and disruptions in Hormuz shipping, creating positive feedback between energy shocks, unexpected PPI, and a hawkish Federal Reserve, driving the dollar higher and yields up, with risk aversion spreading to all assets. About 45% of S&P 500 constituents have entered a buyback blackout period, further weakening technical support. Gold and Bitcoin have fallen in sync, confirming a broad risk-off process.The market is concerned that a continued blockade of Hormuz (over 1 month) could push Brent crude to $150, exacerbating recession or stagflation risks. Recent attention should focus on the final date of Trump's visit to China, progress on market structure legislation, the IEA releasing 400 million barrels of oil reserves (prioritizing Asia and Oceania), and daily tracking of shipping data through the Strait of Hormuz (still at single-digit levels).

According to CoinDesk, the crypto market shows signs of stabilization after a significant sell-off on Tuesday, with Bitcoin and Ethereum rebounding from their recent lows, but the overall derivatives market remains in a risk-off state.On the macro level, the U.S. House of Representatives passed a government funding plan to end part of the government shutdown, boosting U.S. stock futures and global risk assets; precious metals also rebounded, with gold returning above $5,000 and silver rising to around $90, with a daily increase of nearly 6%.In the derivatives market, traders continue to reduce risk exposure, with the total nominal open interest of crypto futures contracts across the network dropping to $105.9 billion, the lowest level since April of last year. The 30-day implied volatility of Bitcoin has climbed to an annualized 53%, the highest level since December 1, while the open interest in Bitcoin and Ethereum futures has decreased by 0.7% and 2%, respectively.

JPMorgan stated that the previous "de-risking" process in the crypto market may be nearing its end, with signs of stabilization in the fund flows of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. The analysis team led by JPMorgan Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou pointed out in a recent report that although BTC and ETH ETFs experienced outflows in December 2025, global stock ETFs recorded a historic monthly net inflow of $235 billion during the same period, several indicators began to improve as January 2026 approached.The report noted that the fund flows of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have shown "signs of bottoming," while the positions in perpetual contracts and CME Bitcoin futures indicate that selling pressure is easing. Analysts believe that the phase of retail and institutional investors simultaneously reducing positions during the fourth quarter of 2025 is likely over.Additionally, JPMorgan pointed out that MSCI's decision not to exclude Bitcoin and crypto asset reserve companies from the global stock index in the February 2026 index review also provided the market with "at least a temporary relief," benefiting related companies including Strategy. The report also denied that the recent pullback in the crypto market was due to worsening liquidity. JPMorgan believes that the real trigger was MSCI's statement on October 10 regarding MicroStrategy's index status, which initiated a systemic de-risking operation, and current signs indicate that this process is essentially complete.

ChainCatcher news, according to Fox reporter Eleanor Terrett, the U.S. Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing on February 5, focusing on the issue of "de-banking" of cryptocurrency companies by banks.Eleanor Terrett stated that this is the first-ever hearing on the topic of "de-banking" in U.S. history. Previously, the U.S. House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform sent letters to leaders of cryptocurrency companies, including Uniswap Labs CEO Hayden Adams, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, and Kraken CEO David Ripley, requesting them to explain their experiences with "de-banking."