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SOL $81.67 -4.53%
TRX $0.2795 -0.47%
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BCH $454.81 -0.19%
LINK $8.64 -2.97%
HYPE $28.98 -1.81%
AAVE $122.61 -3.42%
SUI $0.9601 -2.44%
XLM $0.1605 -4.62%
ZEC $260.31 -8.86%

essential

Raoul Pal: The current bull market cycle is expected to peak in 2026, and cryptocurrencies are essentially a macro asset

Former Goldman Sachs executive, author of "Global Macro Investor," and co-founder and CEO of Real Vision, Raoul Pal, stated at the Solana Breakpoint conference:"The decline in labor force participation means a decrease in the working population. And demographic structure is key to driving debt. Population growth will continue to decline, which means the debt-to-GDP ratio will continue to rise, and that is the problem.We have to face the global debt issue, and currency devaluation has always been a way to address (or rather postpone) this problem. We are starting to see signs that the Federal Reserve will have to reconsider its balance sheet and begin to think about how to 'monetize' all this debt. It is expected that over the next 12 months, we will need to print about $8 trillion in cash through liquidity injections.I know many people may think the crypto cycle is over and feel that 'the good times are gone.' But in fact, what drives all of this is cyclical, not from the Bitcoin halving cycle, but driven by the debt maturity cycle.So, I believe this is not a 4-year cycle, but a 5.4-year cycle. In a 5.4-year cycle, we have now passed the trough of the cycle, and the next step is the rising phase, with the cycle expected to peak at the end of 2026, not 2025. This is a breakthrough understanding for us as global macro investors: understanding that cryptocurrency is actually a macro asset.Additionally, the altcoin/Bitcoin cross rate is driven by the business cycle, and the business cycle seems to be bottoming out, not peaking."

Opinion: The vast majority of innovative applications of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin essentially belong to financial services

ChainCatcher news, according to the WeChat public account of the China Financial Forty Forum, Liu Xiaochun, Vice President of the Shanghai Institute of New Finance (SFI), and Xiao Lei, a young researcher at the Shanghai Jiao Tong University China Financial Research Institute and head of investment at Kaitai Vision Fund (Hong Kong), co-authored an article titled "Reconsidering the Modern Monetary System in the Wave of Cryptocurrencies."The article points out that there have been various analyses and expectations regarding cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin in the current market. The 2024 U.S. election has further brought cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin to the forefront. However, for cryptocurrencies to truly replace existing sovereign currencies, they still face institutional realities and challenges. The vast majority of innovative applications of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin essentially belong to financial services.In dealing with cryptocurrencies, a more valuable approach is to explore their more feasible application paths in the financial sector based on the functions and systems of modern money, combined with the technical characteristics of cryptocurrencies. This can mainly be approached from two directions: first, exploring the financial assetization path that is not linked to fiat currencies; second, developing payment and settlement tools that are linked to fiat currencies.
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