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Wintermute: Two major catalysts land, BTC breaks range to create an eight-month high

Wintermute released the market weekly report, stating that the Federal Reserve passed an interest rate hike of 25 basis points to 3.75-4% with a unanimous vote of 12-0 on September 21. Sixteen officials expect at least one more rate hike this year, and inflation is not expected to return to the 2% target before 2029.The two major catalysts that the market was focused on—the FOMC rate hike and the CLARITY Act—have both materialized: the CLARITY Act failed to pass in the Senate (49-50, not reaching the 60-vote threshold), and the SEC and CFTC immediately stated they would formulate cryptocurrency regulatory rules under existing authority. The market adjusted for only one trading day before recovering. BTC traded this week in the range of $75,000 to $81,000, with a weekly closing price of $81,159, marking the first time since last November that it has stood above the 50-week moving average; ETH rose 6.7%, trading in the range of $2,350 to $2,600.In terms of ETF funds, there was a net outflow of $746 million from Tuesday to Wednesday, followed by a return of $593 million from Thursday to Friday, resulting in a net outflow of about $6 million over five trading days, with the outflow triggered by CLARITY almost fully replenished within 48 hours. Entering this week, both BTC and ETH broke through the upper range before the U.S. stock market opened, accompanied by about $250 million in short liquidations, with BTC briefly reaching $86,000, a new eight-month high.

PaymentsJournal Highlights Latin America’s Fragmented Payments Landscape, Citing PhotonPay Research

Payments industry publication PaymentsJournal has published a deep-dive article, Navigating Latin America’s Complex Payment Ecosystem, examining the region’s evolving payments landscape, including domestic payment rails, cross-border settlement, stablecoins and payment orchestration. The article draws on PhotonPay’s research report, The Next Payment Infrastructure in LATAM, as a reference for its analysis. The article highlights the highly fragmented nature of Latin America’s payments market, where countries such as Brazil, Argentina and Mexico have developed distinct payment systems, currencies, providers and regulatory frameworks. At the same time, stablecoins are gaining traction in cross-border payments, offering an additional layer for liquidity and settlement, while local payment rails remain essential for reaching businesses and consumers in individual markets. PaymentsJournal argues that the next phase of payment infrastructure in Latin America may not be about creating a single regional rail, but about connecting diverse local payment systems, currencies and global liquidity through a more unified infrastructure layer. In this model, stablecoins can facilitate cross-border movement and settlement of value, while payment orchestration connects and manages the local rails, providers and fund flows businesses need to navigate. PhotonPay’s research explores these infrastructure trends and the changing dynamics of payments across the region.

Bank of England officials: Stablecoins may reinforce the dominance of the US dollar and increase the demand for US Treasury bonds

Carolyn Wilkins, a member of the Bank of England (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee, stated that the growth of dollar stablecoins may reinforce the global dominance of the dollar and increase the demand for U.S. Treasury bonds. She pointed out during a speech at Queen's University Belfast that dollar stablecoins can facilitate cross-border settlements and expand access to dollar-denominated assets outside the United States.Stablecoin issuer Tether's USDT and fintech company Circle's USDC held nearly $150 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds by the end of 2025, purchasing about $33 billion that year. Wilkins noted that large-scale stablecoin redemptions could force issuers to sell Treasury bonds, thereby amplifying volatility in pressured markets. Currently, the total circulation of stablecoins has exceeded $300 billion, with 98% of their value pegged to the dollar. Wilkins stated that this gives the dollar a significant first-mover advantage, and the development of the stablecoin market has implications beyond the cryptocurrency sector.The development of pound stablecoins is relatively slow. The UK's Financial Conduct Authority has tested potential issuers through a dedicated regulatory sandbox and finalized the UK's stablecoin issuance rules in June; the Bank of England has also tested the feasibility of using stablecoins alongside a simulated digital pound for cross-border trade payments.
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