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BTC $75,592.78 +1.26%
ETH $2,353.60 +0.72%
BNB $632.50 +1.86%
XRP $1.45 +2.17%
SOL $88.17 +3.48%
TRX $0.3241 -0.99%
DOGE $0.0988 +2.10%
ADA $0.2577 +3.48%
BCH $449.93 +2.19%
LINK $9.51 +2.17%
HYPE $43.66 -2.41%
AAVE $117.22 +9.91%
SUI $1.00 +2.67%
XLM $0.1694 +5.26%
ZEC $333.68 -3.15%

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Wintermute Weekly: Geopolitical tensions dominate the market, Bitcoin rises 2% weekly, narrowly holding the $67,000 support

Wintermute released its latest weekly report, stating that the current macro situation was entirely driven by geopolitical news last week: On Tuesday, the Iranian president signaled a ceasefire, causing the S&P 500 to surge about 2.9%, and Brent crude oil fell to $105; however, on Wednesday, Trump made a tough speech, promising "extremely severe" strikes against Iran for 2-3 weeks and showing no intention of reopening the Strait of Hormuz, leading WTI crude oil to soar 11% to over $111 on Thursday, while Asian markets plummeted.On Sunday, Trump threatened to bomb Iranian bridges and power plants on Tuesday, while also stating that it was "very likely" an agreement would be reached before Monday. Reports indicate that a 45-day ceasefire framework is under discussion. The current 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen to 4.36% (up 40bp since the conflict began), and swap market pricing shows a zero probability of a rate cut at the Federal Reserve meeting on April 28-29. PCE data will be released on Thursday, with the market watching whether the impact of oil prices will transmit to the Fed's preferred inflation indicators.In terms of digital assets, Bitcoin only rose 2% last week, with the fear and greed index at 9 (extreme fear), and social sentiment reaching the most bearish level since the conflict began. Institutional buying remains a key support, with net inflows into ETFs in March at $1.32 billion (the strongest since October 2025), Strategy increasing its holdings by 44,000 Bitcoins, and Morgan Stanley approved to list a spot ETF at a 14bp fee rate.However, in the last week of March, ETFs turned to outflows of $414 million, and the ratio of exchange whales rose from 0.34 in January to 0.79, while over-the-counter trading data also showed institutions shifting from buying to neutral to net selling. Ethereum performed well (+4.2%), with staking yields becoming a differentiated advantage in a "higher for longer" interest rate environment.Solana dropped below $80 due to a hack of the Drift protocol (resulting in a loss of $285 million, marking the second-largest hack in Solana's history). Wintermute stated that the Tuesday deadline for the Strait of Hormuz is a critical juncture. The 45-day ceasefire framework is the most concrete de-escalation effort since the conflict began, but damage to Iranian energy facilities, Gulf refineries, and port logistics has already occurred, and even a full ceasefire cannot restore pre-war shipping capacity overnight. If the "power plant day" threat materializes on Tuesday and Iran retaliates, the risk premium for oil prices will be immediately rebuilt.

CryptoQuant: The Bitcoin derivatives market is dominated by short positions, while long positions continue to face liquidation pressure

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr stated, "The Bitcoin Position Index is a comprehensive indicator that measures the aggressiveness of long/short positions in the derivatives market, reflecting the current actual opening direction of futures market participants.The 30-day simple moving average (SMA-30d) of this index reached a local high of +3 on March 17 when the Bitcoin price was $73,925, and has since continued to decline, now down to -3.1. This reflects a sustained accumulation of short positions. During the same period, the Bitcoin price fell from $74,883 to $66,603, with the SMA-30d declining in sync with the market price, further confirming a weakening market structure.The liquidation oscillation indicator rebounded from 2.9% in mid-March and has continued to rise, reaching 18.6% as of now. This indicates that the market is continuously generating forced liquidations on the long side, preventing structural recovery. The red bars dominated by short liquidations have not appeared since October 2025. As long as the 30-day moving average (30DMA) remains high and the significant red bars do not return, the pressure on long positions will persist. If the 30DMA reverses downward, it will be the first signal that liquidation balance begins to recover. The reversal of both indicators occurring simultaneously will confirm each other.The Bitcoin price has cumulatively dropped about 11% from the peak of $74,883, and the current derivatives market structure shows no foundation for a sustained reversal: shorts dominate, longs continue to be cleared, and short squeeze scenarios are almost nonexistent. Current operational stance: avoid risk. The main downside risk is: if the pressure from forced liquidations continues and the position SMA-30d remains below the zero axis, the bearish pattern will further solidify, and the downward pressure on Bitcoin price will intensify if it breaks below $66,000.
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