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first_img Samsung Electronics executive: It is expected that HBM will account for nearly 30% of DRAM wafer production capacity next year

According to a report by the Financial Associated Press citing local media on September 29, Samsung Electronics Executive Vice President Kim Taewoo stated that HBM is expected to account for nearly 30% of the total wafer capacity of DRAM manufacturers next year, up from the current ratio of about 20%. He mentioned that HBM competes with traditional DRAM for the same batch of wafer capacity, and increasing HBM output may squeeze the supply of traditional DRAM.TrendForce previously predicted that by the end of 2027, the HBM wafer input from the three major global HBM suppliers will account for about 30% of the total DRAM wafer input, but in terms of storage capacity, it will only contribute about 13% of the total DRAM supply. Additionally, according to media reports on September 20, Samsung began mass production and shipment of HBM4 in February this year and provided 12-layer HBM4E samples to customers including NVIDIA in May; the industry expects Samsung's monthly wafer input for HBM to increase from about 180,000 wafers this year to about 250,000 wafers next year.On the same day, TrendForce stated that the demand for AI servers continues, and HBM and general DRAM will still share limited advanced process capacity. The storage supply will remain tight in 2027, and the price expectations for HBM in 2027 have been raised, with an expected year-on-year increase of 121% in the mixed average selling price. Due to limited supply and rising system costs, 8-layer HBM is expected to become a priority evaluation option for several manufacturers in 2027, with its price per Gb expected to be about 10% to 20% higher than that of 12-layer products.

first_img Samsung Electronics accelerates the construction of the first mass production line in Pyeongtaek P5, with the equipment introduction target moved up to the second quarter of next year

According to a report by ZDNet Korea on September 28, Samsung Electronics is accelerating the construction of the first mass production line (Ph1) at the Pyeongtaek Fifth Campus (P5) and is discussing with major equipment manufacturers to move the target for Ph1 equipment installation from the originally planned third quarter of next year to the second quarter of next year. P5 is the next-generation semiconductor production base aimed to be operational by 2028, and the construction of the Ph1 cleanroom began in the third quarter of this year.Samsung Electronics had previously advanced the completion of the P5 Ph1 cleanroom, originally scheduled for early next year, by about six months, so the equipment installation is expected around the third quarter of next year. Industry insiders say that the start time for equipment installation is planned to be moved up from July to August next year to around May to June next year; others have indicated that Samsung has even proposed to deliver equipment in the first quarter of next year for temporary storage at other locations, showing a strong willingness to invest early.Discussions on the investment for the second phase of P5 (Ph2) are also progressing. Currently, Ph1 is more likely to be built as a DRAM and HBM production line, while Ph2 is more likely to be built as an advanced NAND production line, including the tenth generation (V10). Equipment industry insiders say that formal purchase orders have not yet been placed, but Samsung has discussed building Ph2 as a NAND production line with partners, and due to the long equipment delivery cycle, they are requesting to prepare relevant components in advance. Reports indicate that large global tech companies are increasing orders for high-performance DRAM and NAND for AI infrastructure, while storage companies like Samsung have limited production capacity. Samsung stated during the second quarter earnings call in July that unmet demand this year will extend into next year, and the supply shortage next year will be more severe than this year, with shortages expected to continue until 2028.

first_img CPO equipment supplier orders are visible until the second quarter of next year, Zhidé and Gaoming Iron are starting factory expansions

According to the Economic Daily, the shipment of optical CPO related equipment for joint packaging is increasing. Suppliers such as ZhiDe, GaoMingTie, and DongYouDa have stated that orders from Europe, America, and Asia are flooding in, with order visibility extending to the second quarter of next year, and they are simultaneously starting factory expansions. Customers' demand for high-precision motion platforms and automated optical coupling equipment is increasing, with a noticeable rise in clients from Southeast Asia, including Singapore and Malaysia, in addition to major manufacturers in Europe and America.ZhiDe stated that after receiving thousands of orders for international CPO equipment, they have recently made new gains and are negotiating cooperation on CPO alignment modules with domestic and major manufacturers in Europe and America, with overall orders initially looking at a thousand units. The company is expanding production in the Shugu Garden and Nanke Park in response to demand, expecting to launch new capacity in the fourth quarter and continue to ramp up production next year.GaoMingTie has been certified by the world's top ten optical communication brands and has secured orders for 800G and 1.6T optical module coupling alignment modules, with optical communication product revenue accounting for 79% in the first half of the year. The company has acquired about 60% equity in an optical and medical factory in Taichung, and after establishing a production assembly line, the estimated capacity can be expanded by more than double, with the Dongguan subsidiary expected to ramp up production after mid-next year. DongYouDa is collaborating with the Japanese company Junhe on CPO optical coupling equipment, with order visibility extending to the second quarter of next year, and has already initiated plans to establish factories in Vietnam, India, and Mexico, increasing capacity utilization from 70% by the end of 2025 to 80%.

Next week, the U.S. non-farm payroll and core PCE will be announced, and Micron will release its earnings report after the market closes on Wednesday

Next week's macro data focus will be on Friday's U.S. non-farm payroll report, including non-farm employment population, unemployment rate, and average hourly wage, which are directly related to the Federal Reserve's interest rate path and are important employment data ahead of the October monetary policy meeting. According to Beijing time, on Wednesday at 20:15, the U.S. September ADP employment figures will be released, and at 20:30, the U.S. August core PCE price index year-on-year will be announced; on Thursday at 20:30, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending September 26 will be released, and on Friday at 20:30, the U.S. September seasonally adjusted non-farm employment population and unemployment rate will be published.Regarding officials' speeches, on Thursday at 16:00, Bank of England Governor Bailey will speak, and at 21:30, European Central Bank President Lagarde will speak. Starting from early Wednesday, Federal Reserve officials will have a series of public activities; 2027 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee, along with 2028 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Bullard, will speak in succession, and FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams will deliver a keynote speech at the University at Buffalo. On Thursday, Federal Reserve Governor Cook, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, and Richmond Fed President Barkin will speak in turn, and on Friday, Williams and Dallas Fed President Logan will still have public activities. In terms of U.S. stocks, Micron will release its earnings report after the market on Wednesday, and Nike will announce its latest quarterly earnings report on Thursday, with both companies corresponding to storage chips and consumer demand.

Citigroup: The SEC's new regulations will become the next focal point for the cryptocurrency market

Citigroup stated in its latest market strategy program that the failure of the U.S. Senate to advance the CLARITY Act for formal review did not interrupt Bitcoin's rebound. After the procedural vote on the bill was blocked, Bitcoin remained strong, indicating that funds have begun to reduce their reliance on a single legislative node and are instead focusing on whether regulatory rules can continue to move forward.Citigroup believes that the legislative blockage will limit the CFTC's ability to obtain a more comprehensive regulatory mandate for the crypto market in the short term, but the SEC can still advance some rule-making based on its existing authority. For the market, this means that the compliance process for the crypto industry still has room to continue, with the subsequent focus on the SEC's actual execution pace regarding trading, tokenized assets, and market access rules. Additionally, the macro environment remains a variable for Bitcoin's rebound.The baseline judgment of Citigroup's economic team is that this round of interest rate hikes may be close to "one and done"; however, the quantitative macro team warns that if AI investments continue to support growth, and employment and wage pressures persist, interest rates may face further upward revision risks. Citigroup views Bitcoin's position above the mid-term moving average as a signal of warming risk appetite and notes that its correlation with Nasdaq performance is worth continued tracking.
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