outlook

According to official social media news, Huobi HTX will hold a themed live broadcast titled "PCE Revealed Tonight: Bull Market Rotation or Final Frenzy?" on September 30 at 20:00 (UTC+8). At that time, crypto KOLs 0xPink, Xiao Hai, HiSeven, and Xiao Zhi will discuss the continuously rising U.S. Treasury yields and the strong performance of altcoin markets, along with the upcoming August PCE data, to forecast the future trends of Bitcoin and altcoins.

ITC Crypto founder Benjamin Cowen published a post questioning the bearish outlook for Bitcoin in Q4, stating that from a technical perspective, the current market trend is favorable for bulls. Currently, the price of BTC is less than 1% away from the May peak, making it difficult to draw conclusions about the future market before entering the fourth quarter.

On September 22, the Australian Treasury released the latest edition of the Intergenerational Report, which outlines a 40-year economic outlook and lists artificial intelligence as one of the five major transformations that will profoundly impact the economy in the future, but the report does not mention cryptocurrencies. The report states that AI systems have become "significantly" more autonomous, powerful, and widely applied, with some benchmark performances surpassing human levels. The other four transformations are geopolitical conflicts, an aging population, the transition to clean energy, and Australia's industrial shift towards the service sector.John O'Loghlen, National Director of Coinbase Australia, commented in an email that the report clearly indicates that Australia's prosperity over the next 40 years will largely depend on the ability to adopt new technologies and enhance productivity, but while the report focuses on artificial intelligence, it completely overlooks the financial infrastructure required for these agents. Previous Intergenerational Reports also did not address digital assets. Despite these omissions, the Reserve Bank of Australia has increased its focus on tokenized finance and upgrading financial infrastructure earlier this year, with the Digital Finance Cooperative Research Centre estimating that digital financial innovation could bring an economic benefit of AUD 24 billion (approximately USD 17.1 billion) annually.The Treasury also released a separate report on September 3 titled Financial Innovation Strategy, which discusses the connection between AI and financial infrastructure, stating that agent systems may increase automation and machine-to-machine trading, thereby creating greater demand for real-time, interoperable, and programmable payment systems.

Fitch has assigned Tesla (TSLA.O) a "BBB" issuer default rating for the first time, with a stable outlook.

This week, global markets enter a central bank super week. The Federal Reserve's FOMC will announce its interest rate decision and economic projections summary at 2 AM Beijing time on Thursday, followed by a monetary policy press conference by Chairman Powell; the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan will also announce their decisions on Thursday and Friday, respectively. Meanwhile, the U.S. Senate will hold a key procedural vote on the CLARITY Act on Tuesday local time, and the SEC will hold a roundtable discussion on 24-hour trading on the same day.Tuesday: Key procedural vote on the Cryptocurrency Market Structure Act (i.e., CLARITY Act); U.S. ADP employment change for the week ending August 29; U.S. September New York Fed Manufacturing Index. Wednesday: U.S. API crude oil inventories for the week ending September 11; U.S. August retail sales month-on-month, U.S. August import price index month-on-month, U.S. September NAHB housing market index; U.S. July business inventories month-on-month, U.S. EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending September 11.Thursday: Federal Reserve FOMC announces interest rate decision (2 AM Beijing time on Thursday) and economic projections summary, Federal Reserve Chairman holds a monetary policy press conference; U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending September 12; Bank of England announces interest rate decision and meeting minutes; SEC holds a roundtable discussion on 24-hour trading. Friday: Bank of Japan announces interest rate decision, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda holds a monetary policy press conference.

Garrett Jin stated in the latest weekly report that Bitcoin failed to break through the key resistance of $82,500 after reaching a high of $82,300 last week, and has returned to the consolidation range, indicating that the current consolidation is not yet over, and the market may not have completed half of the entire adjustment process.In the short term, spot demand has weakened, and supply remains heavy above $82,000. The risk-reward ratio for chasing prices higher or shorting on a pullback within the current range is poor.

BTC OG insider whale agent Garrett Jin released a market outlook indicating that the macro environment has clearly tightened this week, with Brent crude oil approaching $95, and the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond breaking through 4.8%. The market's expectation of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in September has risen to about 70%. Bitcoin has slightly retraced under this pressure but successfully held the key support level of $76,600, then rebounded to the high range of $77,000.On-chain cost basis data shows that a significant amount of new supply has formed in the $75,000 to $80,000 range, providing strong support for the market; the $80,000 to $82,500 range is currently the largest concentration of resistance. A daily close above $82,500 and a successful retest confirmation will be a key signal for supply clearance. In terms of ETF liquidity, there was a net inflow of about $3.5 billion into U.S. spot ETFs in August, but a two-way flow has appeared at the start of September, with a net outflow of about $237 million on Tuesday, and retail activity has also cooled down.Regarding downside risks, if the daily close falls below $76,600, and ETF flows, Coinbase premiums, and 7-day net realized profits all weaken simultaneously, it will be seen as a clear warning signal. This Friday's non-farm payroll data will be the next important macro testing point; if the data is hot, it will strengthen rate hike expectations, and the $76,600 support may come under pressure again.

Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua stated on social media that a few days ago, Bitcoin did not break through the resistance level of $81,000, and since then, it has been looking for a pullback, which is between $75,500 and $76,000, after which it continues to look bullish towards the next resistance level of $86,000.The judgments made over the past few months have been mostly correct, but that does not mean they will always be correct in the future. Every trade must be approached with caution and a fresh perspective. Making mistakes is normal; many people say that discussing market trends can easily be disproven, and one mistake can lead to failure. However, facing challenges and continuously improving is the entrepreneurial spirit, and failure is also a part of the business process.

According to Jinshi reports, the main theme of this week's market is dominated by changes in expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy. After Federal Reserve Chairman Waller's speech on Friday, the dollar quickly surged, closing at 99.69, up 0.85% for the week. Against the backdrop of rising U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar, gold faced overall pressure, falling 3.24% for the week; spot silver dropped 3.82% this week.Here are the key points the market will focus on in the new week (all in Beijing time): Monday is pending, the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting will be held until September 1; Tuesday at 17:00, Eurozone August CPI data; Eurozone July unemployment rate; Tuesday at 22:00, U.S. August ISM Manufacturing PMI, U.S. July JOLTs job openings, U.S. July construction spending month-on-month; Tuesday is pending, the 2026 SCO member states heads of state council meeting will be held; Wednesday at 20:15, U.S. August ADP employment change; Wednesday at 22:00, U.S. July factory orders month-on-month; Thursday at 02:00, the Federal Reserve will release the Beige Book on economic conditions; Thursday at 16:00, Eurozone August Services PMI final value; Thursday at 17:00, Eurozone July PPI month-on-month; Thursday at 20:30, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending August 29, Federal Reserve Governor Waller will be interviewed; Friday at 03:00, 2026 FOMC voting member Harker will deliver an opening speech at the "Federal Reserve Community" event; Friday at 20:30, U.S. August unemployment rate, U.S. August seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls, U.S. August average hourly earnings year-on-year and month-on-month.The highlight of next week's data will be the U.S. August employment report on Friday. This report is the last employment data before the September 16 interest rate meeting and is a key window to assess the policy path after Waller's hawkish stance. Previously, Nvidia's strong performance and an expected revenue growth of about 70% for the next fiscal year have reignited enthusiasm for AI trading. Dell (DELL.O) will release its second-quarter earnings report after the market closes on Tuesday (September 1), with the market expecting an adjusted earnings per share of $4.91, more than doubling from the same period last year. Broadcom (AVGO.O) will release its third-quarter earnings report for fiscal year 2026 after the market closes on Wednesday (September 2).

NVIDIA (NVDA.O) Chief Financial Officer stated that the outlook for fiscal year 2028 will be affected by supply constraints.

NVIDIA's revenue outlook for Q3 of fiscal year 2027 is $108 billion, while the market expectation is $104.196 billion.

According to Cointelegraph, Metaplanet CEO Simon Gerovich denied selling Bitcoin and expressed an optimistic outlook on Bitcoin's future.Earlier, ChainCatcher reported that the Bitcoin mining company Metaplanet deposited 1000 BTC into Coinbase Prime.

Tim Duy, Chief U.S. Economist at SGH Macro Advisors, stated that it has become common for several Federal Reserve officials to cast dissenting votes on interest rate decisions recently. Duy believes that the core concern for the market is how widespread the officials' worries about inflation are, especially when inflation is above target levels.The labor market is stabilizing, and some officials believe that interest rate hikes are necessary to curb inflation. The market will focus on the consensus within the Federal Reserve regarding concerns about inflation and the degree of policy divergence.

Super Micro Computer's stock rose about 10.4% in pre-market trading, after the company released a revenue outlook for fiscal year 2027 that exceeded market expectations.

BIT Official released a weekly report stating that the trading volume in the cryptocurrency market has fallen by 80% from its peak, and has contracted by about 60% from the peak in the fourth quarter of 2025; the total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market has also dropped by 50%. The report points out that if the trading volume cannot effectively recover, the market will struggle to form a sustained rebound.Despite the market still digesting the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve and the stalled progress of the CLARITY Act, Bitcoin is currently maintaining a range between $62,000 and $66,000, and BIT Official expects Bitcoin to eventually break upward. The report states that Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh has recently adopted a "say less, do less" communication strategy, and the uncertainty of his policy stance is disturbing the market. Walsh has been known for his hawkish stance over the past twenty years, but the market had previously anticipated that he might push for a more dovish monetary policy under Trump's support; if this change materializes, it could be beneficial for Bitcoin.In addition, predictive market data shows that the probability of the CLARITY Act being signed into law before the end of 2026 is currently only 32%. Senate Majority Leader John Thune stated that the Senate will prioritize other issues, and as the August recess approaches, the remaining legislative window for this bill is further narrowing.

According to Coindesk, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) stated that the decreased probability of the "Clarity Act" passing in the U.S. Senate this year poses a blow to the crypto market, and warned that further delays could undermine one of the industry's most important regulatory catalysts. JPMorgan noted that, due to the Senate prioritizing other bills before the summer recess, the market currently predicts that the probability of this bill passing before the end of the year is only 37%. Negotiations regarding ethical clauses, enforcement, DeFi, stablecoin yields, and anti-money laundering rules remain stalled.