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According to Reuters, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has delayed the review of the first batch of predictive market ETFs, resulting in the postponement of more than 24 products originally scheduled for launch. Insiders revealed that the SEC is requesting issuers to provide further clarification on product mechanisms and information disclosure details, and this delay is expected to be temporary.Issuers such as Roundhill Investments, Bitwise Asset Management, and GraniteShares submitted applications in February this year to launch ETF products linked to real-world events such as election results, economic recessions, tech layoffs, and oil prices.According to SEC rules, ETF applications typically become effective automatically 75 days after submission unless the regulatory agency intervenes. Currently, Roundhill has set May 5 as the effective date, and Bitwise and GraniteShares' products are also expected to launch around the same time. The market is closely watching whether the SEC will ultimately approve these products that open up the "event contract" asset class.Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan stated, "This is a rapidly maturing field, and regulation is maturing in parallel," noting that innovative products like Bitcoin ETFs have also gone through a lengthy review process but ultimately launched successfully.

The decentralized trading platform Hyperliquid has officially launched the HIP-4 event contracts. On the first trading day, the nominal trading volume of this product reached 6.05 million contracts, accounting for about 0.7% of the total predicted market volume for that day. In comparison, mainstream prediction market platforms had significantly larger trading volumes on that day: Kalshi approximately 546 million contracts, Polymarket approximately 190 million, Limitless approximately 68.26 million, Crypto.com approximately 28.2 million, Opinion approximately 25.72 million, and Predict.fun approximately 11.8 million.Data shows that although Hyperliquid's initial scale in the event contract sector is relatively small, it has achieved cold start trading volume, marking its official entry into the prediction market competitive landscape. In the short term, leading platforms still hold an absolute liquidity advantage, and future growth will depend on product design and user migration capabilities.

According to Predictefy data, since the launch of event contracts (prediction market) products on Hyperliquid, the trading volume of Bitcoin price-related event contracts on the platform has exceeded the trading volume of similar markets on Kalshi, Polymarket, and all other prediction markets within the same time frame.

On-chain detective ZachXBT replied that PolyArb is a fraudulent prediction market product, and its website contains a wallet stealer.Previously, PolyArb claimed on platform X that the Hyperliquid HIP-4 results market reached a daily BTC trading volume of $6.15 million within 48 hours, which was questioned by user growth head William LeGate regarding its claims about Polymarket fees. ZachXBT warned that replying to the relevant account might bring more exposure to them and lead to an increase in potential victims.

According to The Information, Michael Selig, chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), announced that the agency is pushing to limit state interventions in prediction markets to prevent state-level regulatory measures from hindering or even stifling the industry's development.Reports indicate that Michael Selig is a sports fan himself and has a large number of sports memorabilia in his office, which is seen as a reflection of his long-term interest in sports prediction markets. Since taking office several months ago, he has quickly begun related work, attempting to create a more relaxed federal regulatory environment for prediction markets, allowing more American users to participate in prediction trading for sports events and other outcomes.

According to the official Hyperliquid page, the first HIP-4 binary prediction market contract "BTC above 78213 on May 3 at 2:00 PM" (whether the Bitcoin price will be above $78,213 at 2:00 PM) launched on May 2 at 16:00 has an open contract position of $1.818 million, with a total trading volume of $2.384 million accumulated in nearly 19 hours, and the current probability is reported at 0.497.According to the official HIP-4 proposal, the Outcomes (result contracts) adopt a fully collateralized mechanism, fundamentally eliminating the risk of liquidation; its nonlinear settlement method provides users with flexibility similar to options, expanding the strategy space; at the same time, it is natively integrated into the HyperCore chain, sharing full-margin collateral with the platform's spot and perpetual contracts, achieving seamless liquidity interconnection and reuse.

According to The Information, Michael Selig, the chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), is working to limit state enforcement interventions on prediction markets to prevent state-level regulatory measures from hindering industry development.Since taking office several months ago, Michael Selig has been trying to create a more lenient federal regulatory environment for prediction markets, allowing more American users to participate in trading on sports events and other outcomes. Over the past year, Selig has consistently advocated for prediction markets—issuing a warning in February about suing state governments attempting to intervene in regulation, releasing compliance guidelines in March and publicly soliciting industry feedback, and stating this month that if prediction markets are pushed offshore, it would lead to a repeat of the FTX-style collapse.

The venture capital firm a16z supports the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and opposes a series of crackdowns by various states on prediction markets. On Friday, a16z submitted an 18-page comment letter to the CFTC, stating that the actions taken by state regulators against prediction market platforms—including cease-and-desist orders and proposed bans—are creating "serious barriers to fair access" for users.In just the past month, the CFTC has filed a series of lawsuits against Illinois, Arizona, Connecticut, New York, and Wisconsin, claiming that these states are attempting to regulate markets overseen by the federal government, which exceeds their jurisdiction. a16z argues that requiring trading platforms to block U.S. users based on their state of residence conflicts with the CFTC's rules on fair market access. The company wrote, "Being forced to deny fair access to users from states seeking to license or ban certain event contracts could severely compress available liquidity."CFTC Chairman Mike Selig asserts that the event contracts of prediction markets fall under swap contracts, placing them within the CFTC's "exclusive jurisdiction." State regulators and state attorneys general counter that platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket offer unlicensed gambling products. a16z also discussed the utility provided by what it calls prediction markets, stating that their pricing mechanism is a "unique form of price discovery" that helps "reveal the probabilities of uncertain events." The company further argues that blockchain-based prediction markets are more transparent than traditional platforms, claiming that "the auditability of on-chain transactions" makes it easier for participants and regulators to oversee.In April, the prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi surpassed a cumulative trading volume of $15 billion.

Andreessen Horowitz (a16z) stated in a letter to the CFTC that state regulations on prediction markets are creating "barriers to fair access" and may weaken market liquidity.a16z pointed out that requiring platforms to restrict user access by state will affect market uniformity and conflict with the federal principle of fair access. At the same time, frequent bans and enforcement actions may also compress overall trading depth. The agency emphasized that prediction markets play an important role in information discovery and probability pricing, supporting unified federal regulation. The CFTC, on the other hand, insists that the relevant contracts fall under its exclusive regulatory scope.

According to Jinshi reports, Standard Chartered Bank expects the European Central Bank to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in June, whereas the previous forecast was for rates to remain unchanged.

The prediction market platform Polymarket has partnered with blockchain analysis company Chainalysis to monitor trading activities and enforce market rules in response to concerns about insider trading and market integrity.The two parties announced on Thursday that Chainalysis will provide a comprehensive set of tools, including investigative software and on-chain monitoring systems, to identify suspicious behavior. Its models are designed to detect patterns consistent with "trading based on non-public information." This move comes as regulatory scrutiny of prediction markets is increasing. Critics argue that platforms like Polymarket may be susceptible to influence from insiders (such as political staff or corporate employees) who place "information advantage bets" before information is made public. Such behavior is illegal and heavily regulated in traditional financial markets, but regulatory definitions remain unclear in the crypto prediction market space.Polymarket's response is to enhance the transparency advantages of blockchain. Since all transactions are recorded on-chain, trading activities can be tracked and analyzed post-factum. By overlaying Chainalysis's data tools, the company hopes to identify suspicious transactions in real-time and provide relevant evidence to regulators when necessary.

The Hyperliquid Policy Center (HPC) announced that it has formally submitted a comment letter regarding the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (ANPRM) on prediction markets, advocating for the establishment of a clear compliance path for decentralized prediction markets based on public, permissionless blockchains while improving the regulatory framework for centralized prediction markets.In the comment letter, HPC calls on the CFTC to develop more flexible, function-oriented rules to accommodate decentralized market structures; to establish clear legal channels for U.S. market participants to access decentralized prediction markets; and to promote the U.S. leading position in decentralized financial innovation. HPC stated that prediction markets are a natural extension of the federal derivatives framework, helping participants directly manage their economic risk exposure to real-world events and aggregating dispersed information through continuously updated market prices, whose price discovery capabilities have been widely validated, even outperforming traditional polls and expert forecasts.It pointed out that decentralized prediction markets based on public blockchains have advantages such as transparency, non-custodial nature, and high resilience, not relying on centralized operators to hold user funds, and there is no single point of failure risk; all transactions are recorded in real-time on a public ledger, facilitating regulation and market oversight, while market access standards are more transparent and uniform.HPC emphasized that current rulemaking should not solidify reliance on a single exchange operator, custodial intermediaries, and traditional settlement monitoring mechanisms, as this would hinder U.S. users' legitimate participation in decentralized prediction markets. It stated that it will continue to promote compliance access for U.S. market participants to Hyperliquid and HIP-4 outcome markets and will maintain communication with the CFTC.

The prediction market startup XO Market has completed a $6 million seed round financing, with participation from 20VC, Picus Capital, Coinbase Ventures, Venture Together, and others.XO Market is positioning itself as the "YouTube of prediction markets." Traditional prediction markets rely on internal teams to plan and launch, while XO allows individuals or companies to create markets themselves, setting parameters and fees.

As a CEX platform connecting to Polymarket, Gate's data shows a significant divergence in market expectations regarding the prediction event "Will silver (SI) reach the target price by the end of June?" The probability of reaching $65 by the end of June is 61%, while the probability of being below $60 is 48%. Against the backdrop of macro uncertainty and fluctuations in the metal market, the market's judgment on the price path of metals is becoming cautious, and the long-short game continues to heat up. Meanwhile, according to CoinGlass data, the 24-hour trading volume of silver (XAG) contracts on the Gate platform reached $112 million, ranking among the top globally.In addition, Gate Polymarket has completed a new round of functional upgrades and launched the "Upgrade Experience, Enjoy Up to 5,000 USDT Compensation Benefits" campaign simultaneously. During the event, new users can enjoy up to 100 USDT compensation on their first order, while existing users can receive up to 5,000 USDT in compensation, with a reward pool of 10,000 USDT for the earnings leaderboard. In the trend of accelerating integration between prediction markets and derivatives trading, Gate continues to enrich trading scenarios and strengthen platform liquidity and user participation experience.

According to Bloomberg, Hyperliquid is proposing to add a prediction market feature to its platform, directly competing with Kalshi and Polymarket.The proposal, numbered HIP-4, is currently in the public testing phase and will allow users to place bets on the outcomes of real-world events on the Hyperliquid platform. Hyperliquid is one of the most active trading venues in the current digital asset space, and the speed and scale of its product expansion have attracted widespread attention from Wall Street.

According to Jinshi reports, multiple institutions have conducted forward-looking analyses on the future interest rate path of the Federal Reserve. Wells Fargo and ING both expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points in September and December. ANZ believes the Federal Reserve may restart the rate cut cycle at the September meeting. Goldman Sachs and Bank of America pointed out that economic growth faces downside risks, which may prompt the Federal Reserve to cut rates later this year.

According to Jinshi News, major investment banks have conducted forward-looking analyses on the Federal Reserve's future interest rate path. Wells Fargo and ING both expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points in September and December. ANZ believes that the rate-cutting cycle may restart in the third quarter. Goldman Sachs and Barclays also stated that if inflation falls, the Federal Reserve will ease policy around September. Bank of America predicts that the rate cut could reach 50 basis points.

Web3 asset data platform RootData has compiled a list of 20 business partners for Kalshi, covering key aspects such as blockchain infrastructure, oracle data, market-making liquidity, compliance and regulation, and transaction distribution. On-chain, Kalshi supports network assets such as Solana, Base, Bitcoin, and BNB Chain, and provides data support through oracles like Pyth Network and RedStone. At the liquidity layer, it brings in traditional market makers like Jump Trading and SIG to participate in price discovery. Simultaneously, Kalshi expands its trading and distribution capabilities through platforms like Coinbase and Robinhood. However, compared to its Web3 partner network, Kalshi's more substantial off-chain capabilities lie in its core competencies built upon compliance, risk control, and financial infrastructure. For example, it facilitates fund access and payment compliance through Plaid and Aeropay, receives market monitoring and risk control support from Solidus Labs, and collaborates with Birches Health to establish a responsible trading mechanism. Overall, Kalshi's structure is not typical of a crypto application, but rather resembles an "event exchange" operating within a regulatory framework: first building financial infrastructure, then selectively integrating Web3 capabilities. This gives it a stronger "traditional financial attribute" compared to other prediction market projects. Related compilation: [Kalshi Web3 Partner Network Compilation (Continuously Updated)] Crypto projects proactively showcasing their partner networks has become a key way to improve transparency and market trust. RootData welcomes Web3 projects to submit their information and continuously tracks and opens more channels for disclosing project business relationships. The platform has already released multiple editions of crypto project ecosystem maps, nominating Web3 ecosystem partners serving upstream clients such as Visa, Mastercard, and Coinbase. If you wish to nominate your project in future ecosystem maps, please fill out the [RootData 2026 Industry Ecosystem Mapping] form to add your key clients and partners.

According to Kalshi's official statement, the music streaming weekly play volume prediction market allows users to trade on the rise and fall of weekly Spotify play volumes for artists such as Drake, Taylor Swift, Justin Bieber, and Bad Bunny.