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According to the CFTC official website, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has issued a consultation opinion on the trading of event contracts in the prediction market. In light of the rapid development of prediction markets, the agency aims to encourage the growth and innovation of these markets while reminding designated contract markets (DCM) to fulfill their regulatory obligations under the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) and the Commission's regulations.The consultation opinion emphasizes the regulatory responsibilities of DCM in complying with CEA Section 5(d), Part 38, DCM Core Principle 3, and Appendix C guidelines, as well as product submission requirements. It also discusses some details that may be particularly applicable to sports event contracts.The Market Oversight Division believes that, as the frontline regulatory agency, DCM should proactively take measures to ensure that its markets continue to comply with the requirements of the CEA and the Commission's regulations during their development.

The chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Mike Selig, stated, "Today, we are taking action to release clear guidelines for prediction markets to help trading platforms understand the CFTC's expectations for new contract listings. We are taking on the responsibility of ensuring that this asset class has transparent rules."In an interview with CNBC, Mike Selig said, "Prediction markets are a rapidly evolving field, which is why we are taking action today to release some clear guidelines to assist our trading platforms. Our trading platforms will self-certify contracts and have their own rulebooks, and they need to clearly understand the CFTC's expectations. Therefore, we will publish these guidelines in clear written form for trading platforms to follow.At the same time, we will also release a notice of proposed rulemaking later today. We intend to establish clear operating rules for this new asset class and new market. It is crucial to ensure that there is no manipulation, insider trading, or various abuses in the derivatives market. Therefore, we will take on the responsibility of ensuring that these new asset classes have clear operating rules."

According to Cointelegraph, Utah's HB243 bill has been submitted to the governor for signature, defining "proposition betting" as gambling, aimed at banning prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket from operating in the state. Governor Spencer Cox stated he would sign the bill.Kalshi subsequently filed a lawsuit against Utah and Iowa, claiming that its event contracts are federally regulated derivatives, and that states have no authority to prohibit them. In response, CFTC Chairman Michael Selig emphasized that the CFTC has exclusive regulatory authority over prediction markets, stating, "Whoever challenges, see you in court."

According to Jinshi, Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September and December 2026, while the previous forecast was for rate cuts in June and September.

According to a report by Bloomberg on Wednesday, major U.S. prime brokers are working to provide hedge fund clients with access to the prediction market platform Kalshi. Clear Street, valued at over $12 billion, is expected to complete its first Kalshi trade settlement by the end of March; subsequently, Marex Group, valued at approximately $2.6 billion, also plans to follow suit in the coming months.Marex's Global Clearing Head Thomas Texier stated that there is strong demand from large financial institutions for prediction markets, not only to gain returns from such markets but also to use them as a tool to hedge their own positions. Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour pointed out that prediction markets are becoming a core pillar of the financial ecosystem, with billions of dollars flowing weekly. Although institutional adoption is accelerating, Clear Street CEO Ed Tilly emphasized that the company will proceed cautiously due to ongoing disputes among U.S. state regulators regarding the classification of sports markets and insider trading risks.

According to The Block, Polymarket's 5-minute up-and-down crypto prediction market has become its most popular market less than a month after launch, with a daily trading volume exceeding $60 million, providing 288 prediction windows in a single day, accounting for 67% of its total crypto up-and-down prediction trading volume.

Hyperliquid announced that HIP-4 has officially launched on the testnet. The first result-based market to go live is the periodic binary options based on HyperCore's marked prices. Users can view the relevant markets in the "Predict" section of the testnet interface. The result contracts are fully collateralized, settled within a fixed price range, feature non-linear returns and expiration time characteristics, and do not involve leverage or liquidation mechanisms.Hyperliquid also stated that it plans to launch a one-day expiration binary market for BTC and HYPE in the future. The protocol is designed to support multi-result markets, but this feature has not yet been included in the first release plan.Hyperliquid previously disclosed that in the next network upgrade, the portfolio margin will transition from the pre-alpha phase to the alpha phase, expanding the applicable scope from test accounts to portfolios under approximately $500,000. A main account must have a weighted trading volume exceeding $5 million to enable portfolio margin and set supply and borrowing limits for each asset: 1. The overall supply limit for USDH is 500 million tokens, with an overall borrowing limit of 100 million tokens; 2. The single-user supply limit for USDH is 5 million tokens, and the single-user borrowing limit is 1 million tokens.

The Chief Judge of the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Ohio, Sarah D. Morrison, ruled that there is no historical evidence indicating that Congress intended for federal law to take precedence over state regulation of sports gambling, and thus denied the preliminary injunction request filed by the prediction market platform Kalshi.Kalshi had previously sued the Ohio Casino Control Commission in an attempt to prevent it from taking enforcement action against the platform's event contracts under state gambling laws. Last year, the regulatory agency accused Kalshi of operating illegal sports gambling in Ohio.Kalshi argued that the event contracts it offers are derivatives regulated under the Commodity Exchange Act and should fall under the jurisdiction of the CFTC, thereby asserting that federal regulation should take precedence over state gambling laws.However, the judge stated that there is no evidence from historical and legislative context to suggest that Congress intended for the law to supersede state sports gambling regulations, noting that when the Dodd-Frank Act amended relevant laws in 2010, sports gambling was still widely restricted in the U.S.Kalshi announced that it would appeal the ruling. The case is seen as an important test of the legal status of prediction markets, and its outcome could affect the future compliance prospects of other prediction platforms in the U.S., including Polymarket.

According to CoinDesk, the chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Mike Selig, has updated the agency's ongoing plans to provide much-anticipated regulatory clarity for decentralized finance (DeFi) developers, crypto derivatives, and prediction markets.Selig stated this week at the FIA Global Clearing Markets Conference in Boca Raton, Florida, that the U.S. is reclaiming its leadership in the digital asset space through closer coordination among regulators.He mentioned that he is advancing the "Project Crypto" initiative in collaboration with Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Paul Atkins, announcing the end of internal disputes between the CFTC and SEC. In his speech, Selig reiterated that the CFTC will issue guidance clarifying how so-called prediction markets (referred to as event contracts in regulation) can list and trade products under U.S. law, and will initiate a rulemaking process to solicit public input on regulatory approaches for this rapidly growing sector.He also stated that the CFTC plans to address one of the most controversial regulatory issues in the crypto industry: "There has long been uncertainty about whether software providers trigger CFTC registration requirements," Selig said, "We intend to tackle this issue head-on." The agency is also dealing with the classification of crypto perpetual derivatives, which dominate the global crypto market.

Cryptanalysis expert PlanB posted on the X platform, stating that the current Bitcoin price remains in the $67,000 range, but the S2F model still predicts a potential rise to $500,000 during the 2024-2028 cycle.If the model's judgment is accurate, it means that the current price of Bitcoin is severely undervalued and could likely be a potential long-term buying opportunity. However, the market is also discussing whether the model has become invalid. PlanB simultaneously asked the community, "Will Bitcoin's future trend be bullish or a collapse?"

According to market news, U.S. Democratic Senator Chris Murphy posted a video on the X platform stating that last Friday, someone placed a "very specific bet" on "the U.S. going to war with Iran on Saturday." He pointed out that it is clear that individuals close to Trump were aware of Saturday's actions in advance, and these bettors likely have insider information. Murphy warned that if such war gambling continues, those around the president may "push us into war" for profit.Last Saturday, multiple related bets circulated widely on Polymarket. Reuters reported that Murphy and Democratic Congressman Mike Levin are working on drafting a bill to strengthen regulation of prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi. Levin stated that profiting from foreknowledge of military actions "absolutely should be illegal." He noted that while the Commodity Exchange Act prohibits contracts related to events that "contravene public interest," such as war and terrorism, current rules grant prediction markets too much freedom.

According to Bloomberg, the two main regulatory agencies on Wall Street are advancing regulatory plans for the cryptocurrency industry and the rapidly growing prediction markets.The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has submitted a committee-level guidance to the White House Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs, concerning "the applicability of federal securities laws to certain types of crypto assets and specific transactions involving crypto assets." This guidance may establish a token classification standard for crypto assets, clarifying which tokens fall under the SEC's jurisdiction. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has also submitted a measure regarding prediction markets to OIRA, as the agency is considering new regulations for the industry, including issuing a proposed rulemaking notice.The SEC Chairman stated that the agency will consider providing interpretive guidance around the classification of crypto asset tokens to ensure that investors and innovators clearly understand their regulatory obligations. The CFTC Chairman had previously announced plans to establish new regulations for prediction markets.

Binance founder Changpeng Zhao commented on social media about "Predict.fun announcing a strategic acquisition of Probable," stating: "Congratulations, I am glad to see two strong projects joining forces."ChainCatcher previously reported that, according to official news, the BNB chain prediction market Predict.fun announced a strategic acquisition of Probable, which was originally an on-chain prediction platform incubated by PancakeSwap and YZi Labs.This acquisition will accelerate improvements in market architecture, execution efficiency, and capital utilization by enhancing its underlying technology stack, thereby further increasing the efficiency of the Predict.fun prediction market.

According to market news, the White House will review the new predictive market measures proposed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

According to Lookonchain monitoring, a wallet suspected to be linked to the US-Iran conflict, after being silent for three days, invested $3,000 predicting that the Iranian regime will collapse before March 31.This wallet was created on February 28 and had previously made only two prediction trades, both of which were successful, with a profit of $16,000.