polymarket

As the first centralized exchange (CEX) to connect with Polymarket, Gate's data shows that in the prediction event "How will the Federal Reserve's April interest rate decision change?", the market estimates the probability of interest rates remaining unchanged at a high of 99%. Currently, the overall sentiment in the macro market is cautious, with most participants expecting to maintain a wait-and-see stance in this month's meeting, awaiting more economic data guidance. Keeping interest rates unchanged helps stabilize market liquidity and risk appetite, and various assets, including stock indices and commodities, are expected to attract investor interest. Gate has a comprehensive layout of traditional asset categories, covering the widest range in the network.In addition, users can directly access the prediction market through the Gate App, entering the Polymarket page from the platform's homepage Alpha and using USDT in their exchange account to participate in event predictions. This integration marks a key step for Gate in the fusion of the crypto trading ecosystem and prediction markets, also bringing users a more open and diverse market participation experience.

According to The Block, the total amount of bets related to the 2026 elections on the Polymarket platform has exceeded $2 billion. With the elections in Hungary and Peru approaching, the betting volume in April has significantly increased; the share of bets from non-U.S. markets has risen significantly and now accounts for a majority.The Block points out that election prediction markets are no longer exclusive to the United States and are gradually becoming a global phenomenon.

Gate, as the first centralized exchange to connect to Polymarket, shows that the probability of a closing market value forecast of over $2 trillion for the SpaceX IPO is about 46%, making it the highest probability option currently.It is reported that Gate has launched the first phase of the Pre-IPOs project, SpaceX (SPCX). The subscription for this phase of SpaceX (SPCX) will be open from April 20, 2026, 18:00 to April 22, 18:00 (UTC+8), supporting participation in both USDT and GUSD. After the subscription is completed, the SPCX asset certificates are expected to be distributed before April 22, 22:00 (UTC+8) and will enter pre-market trading in a 100% unlocked form, with pre-market trading starting at April 24, 18:00 (UTC+8). The total subscription amount is 33,900 SPCX, with a total value of approximately $20.01 million, a unit price of $590, corresponding to an implied valuation of about $1.4 trillion.In terms of participation mechanism, Gate Pre-IPOs adopts "average locked amount per hour" for allocation, emphasizing early participation weight. The minimum participation threshold is 100 USDT, and no handling or custody fees are charged. Gate Pre-IPOs will continue to focus on early participation opportunities for high-quality projects before listing, providing users with a new entry point to access global quality assets.

Polymarket's latest data shows that the market bets on the probability of BTC reaching $80,000 before May 1 of this year is 32%, the probability of reaching $85,000 is 8%, and the probability of falling to $65,000 is 22%.

According to Theblock citing The Information, Polymarket has launched an audit targeting application startups that promise to help users track suspected insider trading activities.The report states that these copy trading applications provide customers with a list of traders on the Polymarket platform who have a good track record of profitability, or highlight some unusually large or oddly timed bets that may be based on confidential information. Customers can use bots to replicate these trades or receive notifications of seemingly good trades. These applications charge service fees.It is reported that Polymarket and its main competitor Kalshi have both been scrutinized for insider trading issues. Last month, Polymarket introduced clearer rules regarding insider trading and its enforcement.

According to a report by Reuters, Federal Reserve Chairman nominee Kevin Warsh's latest financial disclosure shows that his personal assets exceed $100 million, which includes two holdings in Juggernaut Fund LP, each over $50 million, as well as small early investments in several emerging technology and financial companies through an entity named DCM Investments 10 LLC.The related targets include SpaceX, owned by Elon Musk, the prediction market platform Polymarket, the Ethereum development platform Tenderly, the crypto financial services platform Lemon Cash, the new consumer credit bank Stashfin, as well as the AI vector art platform Recraft, AI physical security software Volt, the autonomous AI labor platform 11x, the protein engineering company Outpace Bio, the social event platform Partiful, the robotic coffee bar platform Cafe X, and projects developing herpes vaccines, reversible male contraceptives, "bionic" assistive clothing, and the digital avatar platform Delphi AI.

According to on-chain analysis platform Lookonchain (@lookonchain), a newly created wallet (bullseye123) spent $40,000 betting on the prediction market Polymarket that Trump will announce the end of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement before April 15 or 18. Currently, this position has an unrealized loss of about $34,000, with a loss rate of 85%.

The prediction market platform Polymarket has launched a bug bounty program on the Cantina platform with a maximum reward of $5 million. The program covers the entire technology stack, including 18 smart contracts on Polygon (V1/V2 CTFExchange and NegRisk versions, fee modules, conditional token frameworks, pUSD collateral wrapping/unwrapping systems, UMA oracle adapter, etc.), web applications, and related infrastructure (key web vulnerabilities such as remote code execution, sensitive data leakage, subdomain takeover involving wallet interaction, and malicious transaction injection are all eligible for the highest reward level).The maximum reward for smart contract-related vulnerabilities is $5 million, while the maximum reward for web application-related vulnerabilities is $250,000. The program is now officially open for submissions.

According to a Caixin article titled "Financial Innovation or Insider Trading: The Rise and Controversy of Polymarket," it points out that when insider information can be openly monetized, the boundaries of prediction markets have become blurred. Is this "gambling" disguised in financial clothing, or even suspected insider trading? However, regardless of the legal debate over whether it is gambling, the fact that Polymarket uses USDC stablecoin for settlement and delivery poses a significant legal risk for participants within China.Previously, U.S. Senators Merkley and Klobuchar proposed the "End Prediction Market Corruption Act," which prohibits the President, Vice President, and members of Congress from trading on prediction markets, and requires the prediction market trading activities of their spouses and dependent children to be included in annual financial disclosures.

According to Chainwire, Polymarket has announced the completion of its acquisition of the DeFi infrastructure company Brahma. Brahma was co-founded by Alessandro Tenconi, Akanshu Jain, and Bapireddy Karri, and its team will continue to play key roles in infrastructure, protocol design, and product integration.This integration aims to enhance the trading reliability, execution speed, and capital efficiency of the Polymarket platform, while lowering the entry barrier for new users and improving interoperability across blockchain networks.

According to Polybeats statistics, at least 11 addresses profited from the "US-Iran Ceasefire" prediction market on Polymarket through their predictions. The address with the highest profit, 0xffa6b3...30fe, made approximately $405,000, while 0xa4eb52...d010 profited around $339,000.The total profit for all addresses reached $1,913,292.47. These trades were concentrated in several ceasefire deadline markets expiring from March to April. Some early bets on the March ceasefire positions initially incurred losses, but as the expectations for the ceasefire materialized in early April, later positions saw significant profits.

A Polymarket trader increased approximately $13,000 in funds to about $475,000 by betting on a ceasefire event between the United States and Iran, achieving a return of over 3500%.

The prediction market Polymarket collected approximately $7.1 million in trading fees in the first week of the second quarter, becoming one of the most profitable protocols in DeFi. If this pace continues, its annual trading fee revenue could reach about $365 million, potentially capturing 96.8% of the trading fee share in on-chain prediction markets.Analysis suggests that this growth stems from the pricing reform on March 30, maintaining daily trading fee levels at around $1 million, with trading activity remaining high. According to DeFiLlama data, Polymarket's total value locked (TVL) has reached $432 million, nearing the peak during the 2024 U.S. presidential election.In terms of mainstream partnerships, the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) completed a $600 million cash investment on March 27, as part of a larger $2 billion commitment, to distribute Polymarket's event-driven data to institutional clients. The platform also replaced the USDC.e collateral on Polygon with a brand new 1:1 USDC-backed token, Polymarket USD, as a trading collateral asset.Despite rapid revenue growth, regulatory risks remain. Some U.S. states, as well as countries or regions like Hungary, Portugal, and Argentina, have imposed restrictions or bans on prediction markets, citing that Polymarket is viewed as an unlicensed gambling platform.

Defillama founder 0xngmi mentioned that "Polymarket will launch its native stablecoin Polymarket USD," stating that there is a total of approximately $1.25 billion in Polymarket user wallets, and if the platform is willing to retain interest income, it will generate $54 million in interest income annually at the current interest rate.

According to The Defiant, independent on-chain analyst Andrey Sergeenkov's latest research found that 84.1% of traders on Polymarket are in a losing position.The report analyzed 2.5 million wallet addresses, and Sergeenkov discovered that over the past year, only 2% of traders on the platform have accumulated profits exceeding $1,000, while only 0.033% (i.e., 840 addresses) of traders have made profits of $100,000 on the Polymarket platform."Most traders just come to trade for a while and then leave," the report concluded. The research found that the probability of making $5,000 in profit per month decreases month by month. Among 6,600 traders who averaged over $5,000 in monthly profits, only 2.6% remained active for more than a year.

The on-chain prediction market platform Polymarket announced that it will conduct "the largest infrastructure upgrade since its launch" in the next 2-3 weeks, including a complete reconstruction of the trading engine and the launch of the native stablecoin Polymarket USD.This upgrade will introduce a brand new CTF Exchange V2 smart contract system, optimizing matching logic and order structure, improving matching efficiency, and reducing gas costs. At the same time, the platform will upgrade the Central Limit Order Book (CLOB), adopting a hybrid model of off-chain order matching + on-chain settlement.At the asset level, Polymarket will launch the native stablecoin Polymarket USD, pegged 1:1 to USDC, to replace the previous cross-chain version USDC.e on Polygon, enhancing asset security and consistency. In addition, the platform will support the EIP-1271 standard, allowing multi-signature wallets (such as Safe) to participate directly in trading, further expanding use cases for institutions and advanced users.Polymarket stated that the existing order book will be cleared during the upgrade, and the specific maintenance time will be announced one week in advance. This upgrade comes amid intensified competition in the prediction market, as the platform accelerates performance and user experience improvements.

Polymarket's probability of "Bitcoin rising to $70,000 in April" has significantly increased to 91%, up 19% in 24 hours; the probability of "Bitcoin rising to $75,000 in April" has risen to 47%, up 16% in 24 hours. The event contract rules are: if the BTC/USDT price on Binance reaches or exceeds the specified price at any 1-minute K-line high during the specified month (from 00:00 to 23:59 Eastern Time on the last day), the market will be immediately determined as "yes"; otherwise, it will be determined as "no." As of now, the total trading volume of this event contract has exceeded $6.435 million.Market data shows that BTC is currently priced at 69,164.6 USDT, with a 24-hour increase of 3.06%. In the past 24 hours, the total liquidation amount of BTC across the network reached $113 million, with short liquidations at $104 million and long liquidations at $8.41 million. Polymarket's Prophet channel continues to monitor the prediction market, observing changes before pricing.

Polymarket has delisted a prediction market involving the fate of a missing American pilot, stating that the content violates the platform's "integrity standards" and should not have been launched, and is reviewing its internal auditing processes. The incident has sparked widespread controversy, as the market had bets on "whether they will be rescued," with over 60% of users betting that they would not be rescued in the short term.It is reported that U.S. Congressman Seth Moulton has publicly criticized such trades as "disgusting," questioning the speculation on the fate of potential casualties. He stated, "American soldiers could be your neighbors, friends, or family, yet some are betting on whether they will be rescued."Additionally, the Polymarket platform has not specified the exact terms of the violations, raising questions about the transparency of the rules. Meanwhile, the prediction market is also facing heightened concerns over "insider trading," with reports that some traders had made precise bets for profit before sensitive military events. On the regulatory side, several U.S. lawmakers have called for stronger restrictions on trading in prediction markets using non-public information.