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SOL $83.40 +0.60%
TRX $0.3172 -0.13%
DOGE $0.0673 -0.67%
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LINK $10.18 -1.10%
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AAVE $120.52 -2.87%
SUI $0.8204 -0.08%
XLM $0.1466 +1.16%
ZEC $978.29 -6.89%
AAPL $355.88 +1.94%
AMZN $267.64 -1.43%
GOOGL $295.13 +2.26%
MSFT $523.13 -2.31%
META $630.20 -2.19%
NVDA $160.54 -5.18%
TSLA $387.92 +2.18%
SNDK $961.20 +11.83%
INTC $60.70 +4.55%
SPCX $138.31 -3.12%
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Flash

Glassnode: Bitcoin has fallen below the cost basis for short-term holders, with stablecoin supply decreasing by 14.2 billion USD over 30 days

Glassnode posted on platform X that Bitcoin has fallen below the short-term holder cost price of $75,600, underperforming compared to U.S. stocks, and the funds that could drive its rise are continuously flowing out. Currently, about 35% of short-term holders are in profit, with sellers averaging small losses.In terms of capital, the total supply of stablecoins has decreased by $14.2 billion over the past 30 days, marking the fastest contraction since June 2022; the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has seen a net outflow of $1.6 billion over the past 20 trading days; excluding the impact of USDT falling below $1, the 30-day average premium on Coinbase has remained negative, with the discount being the deepest since February. On the macro front, the two-year U.S. Treasury yield is at 4.75%, which is 75 basis points higher than the current 4% rate of the Federal Reserve, indicating that the bond market expects further rate hikes, but it is far from the level of 244 basis points in June 2022.However, there are also positive signals, as the decline has cleared most of the long leverage near the price, with the largest concentration of liquidations located between $59,500 and $62,600; since the sell-off on November 5, buy orders within a 5% price range in the Binance and Coinbase spot order books have consistently outnumbered sell orders; wallets holding between 100 to 1,000 BTC and 1,000 to 10,000 BTC have started to accumulate over the past week.Glassnode stated that if it returns to $75,600, it will support the judgment of a trend reversal in August; if it continues to fall below $73,000, it may enter a longer period of consolidation; if it closes below the June low of $58,500, the trend reversal since August will be broken.

1confirmation Partner: has participated in multiple rounds of financing for Polymarket and will continue to increase investment, optimistic about the information value of prediction markets

Nick Tomaino, a partner at 1confirmation, stated that 1confirmation has participated in all rounds of financing for Polymarket to date and has decided to increase its investment again. Although the fund focuses on seed-stage investments and typically does not participate in later-stage financing, it believes that Polymarket is worth breaking this investment convention.Nick Tomaino mentioned that there has been a demand for prediction markets for over a century, as users wish to place bets on events in politics, culture, and more. In the age of AI, one of the biggest challenges faced by young people is discerning the truth of information, and prediction markets can transform users' trading and investment enthusiasm into more accurate information.He emphasized that the long-term value of Polymarket is not just in sports betting, but in providing a more effective information discovery mechanism for political, geopolitical, and cultural events. Currently, while the U.S. market is primarily focused on sports trading, the accuracy of information is what gives prediction markets their more enduring value.Additionally, he believes that Polymarket's business is continuously upgrading, with the current management team performing excellently, and the products in the U.S. market are at an industry-leading level, with revenue consistently reaching new highs. Regarding the token program, he stated that while he did not fully agree with some of the related promotional methods previously, it is unreasonable to assert that the token program has lost its potential.Finally, Nick Tomaino stated that Polymarket founder Shayne has a strong desire for success and is one of the most direct and transparent people he knows.

Federal Reserve spokesperson: The interest rate hike in December is almost certain, with the focus shifting to the magnitude and pace of the rate increases

According to the Wall Street Journal, Nick Timiraos, known as the "mouthpiece of the Federal Reserve," wrote that after the third consecutive strong inflation report was released, a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in December is almost certain. Market focus is shifting to the magnitude of the rate hike and the subsequent pace, including a 25 basis point hike at each meeting, a one-time hike of 50 basis points, or signaling multiple consecutive hikes of 25 basis points.Nick Timiraos pointed out that the Federal Reserve will hold a policy meeting from December 8 to 9, and the bigger question is whether this rate hike is a moderate adjustment envisioned by several officials, with two to three more hikes, or the beginning of a sustained effort to suppress the economy and lower inflation.Previously, Federal Reserve Governor Waller, who supported maintaining interest rates last week, stated that if the core price increase in October reaches about 0.3% month-over-month, the Federal Reserve should consider a 50 basis point hike in December, and the latest published data happens to align with this scenario. Dallas Federal Reserve President Logan also hinted after the data release that, given the current inflation pressures, it may be necessary to accelerate the pace of rate hikes. The relevant tactical choices are usually decided by the Federal Reserve Chair.
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