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According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve's Williams stated that the underlying inflation trends show mixed signals.

According to official social media news, the decentralized contract trading platform Sun Wukong will hold a live broadcast today at 19:00 (UTC+8) themed "Hong Kong Web3 Carnival: What Kind of Market Are We Looking Forward to in 2026?" At that time, KOLs in the crypto space such as Alice, Mike Banana, Metamental | Beyond the Realm, MMK, and Web3 He Yi (sophia) will attend to discuss the trends in the crypto market for 2026 surrounding the upcoming Hong Kong Web3 Carnival.

According to Cointelegraph, Hyperliquid's native token HYPE retested $45 on Tuesday, marking the highest level since October 31, 2025. This rebound has accumulated a 108% increase from the annual low of $21 on January 21. However, market signals are mixed: spot buying is weak, and the cumulative volume delta (CVD) for spot has dropped to -41.48 million, diverging from the price increase, indicating that the rise is mainly supported by passive demand rather than aggressive spot buying.Futures sentiment is cautious, with the futures CVD remaining flat at around -748 million for nearly a month. Although open interest (OI) has risen to 1.38 billion, the weak futures CVD suggests that traders lack confidence in chasing the price up. Additionally, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes predicts that if Hyperliquid continues to capture market share from centralized exchanges, HYPE could rise 200% to $150 by August this year. Currently, HYPE is priced at $43.5, which is 27% lower than its historical high of $59. Analysts warn that if bullish momentum fades, the market may be more susceptible to sharp volatility driven by liquidations.

Bitcoin is approaching the key resistance level of $75,000, with several analysts stating that this level could mark the turning point for the market from consolidation to a new upward trend.Mati Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics, pointed out that if BTC can effectively hold above $75,000, it would signify a structural breakthrough and could attract new funds into the market; however, if it fails to maintain this level, it may form a "bull trap," although there is still strong support around $65,000.Coinmetro CEO Kevin Murcko stated that round numbers like $75,000 are usually areas where traders concentrate their bets, making it easy to trigger profit-taking and buying-selling discrepancies.Analysts further noted that if a breakout is confirmed, BTC is expected to rise to the $85,000 range, but the upward potential still depends on factors such as the macro environment, ETF fund inflows, and market liquidity.Meanwhile, there are also views that $75,000 is more of a psychological barrier, and true structural confirmation may require holding at a higher level.

Wintermute stated that the market experienced two distinct phases last week: the first half of the week was driven by ceasefire expectations, with the Nasdaq rising 4.5%, Bitcoin up 2.6%, and the VIX falling below 20. Over the weekend, talks in Islamabad broke down, and the U.S. announced a comprehensive maritime blockade on Iranian ports, causing Brent crude oil to surge 8% in a single day, returning above $103, leading risk assets to give back their gains.On the macro front: U.S. March CPI rose 3.3% year-on-year, with core CPI slightly below expectations at 2.6%. The market believes this is still a concentrated energy shock rather than widespread inflation. Asian markets saw a slight decline overnight, with Nasdaq futures steady. The market's reaction to each new piece of news is weakening, suggesting that it may have priced in the worst-case scenario or is becoming complacent.In terms of crypto assets: Bitcoin closed up 2.6% last week but did not lead the gains. The price has been consolidating in the $65,000-$73,000 range for over two months. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $22.3 million last week, while Ethereum ETFs continued to bleed, with outflows reaching $327 million year-to-date. Open interest in perpetual contracts has stabilized in the $28-30 billion range.Options traders' gamma exposure in the $68,000-$72,000 range indicates that hedging activities will amplify bidirectional volatility within that range. Wintermute believes that the ceasefire trade is dead, and the market is returning to an escalation trend. However, the market's reaction function is weakening. Confirmation of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could push Bitcoin to break above $75,000, while continued escalation may keep prices in a range-bound fluctuation with a downward tendency. The earnings season may partially shift market attention back to fundamentals, which could change the positioning behavior at the edges of the range.

Bitget's transparency report for the first quarter of 2026 released today shows that user trading behavior is accelerating its shift from single cryptocurrency assets to multi-asset portfolios. By the end of the first quarter, the trading volume of non-cryptocurrency assets such as commodities accounted for 20%-40%, while the proportion of cryptocurrency assets fell from its dominant position at the beginning of the year to 60%-80%. The fluctuation of this data marks that a panoramic asset portfolio has become a core strategy for high-net-worth investors.On the product and ecosystem level, Bitget released the white paper for the panoramic exchange UEX in the first quarter, further clarifying the direction of integration of cryptocurrency assets, tokenized assets, and AI-driven trading under a unified framework. At the same time, the platform continues to strengthen its AI trading infrastructure, successively launching Agent Hub and GetClaw, promoting the evolution of AI from an auxiliary tool to an execution system, allowing agents to access real-time market data, identify trading signals, and execute operations autonomously under established parameters.Bitget CEO Gracy Chen pointed out: "The boundaries between the cryptocurrency market and traditional finance are rapidly dissolving, and the explosive growth of CFD business indicates the arrival of a unified market. Users are no longer making binary asset choices but are engaging in efficiency games with diverse assets under the same logical system."

According to Cointelegraph, Nic Puckrin, founder of Coin Bureau and cryptocurrency market analyst, stated that Bitcoin's current recovery is relatively weak. The geopolitical and macroeconomic pressures caused by the Middle East war will dominate the market trends in the second quarter of 2026, with interest rate cuts expected no earlier than the third or fourth quarter. He pointed out that for BTC to reach $90,000, three conditions must be met: easing geopolitical tensions, oil prices falling back to around $80, and weakening economic data.Currently, BTC is priced at approximately $71,276, facing resistance at $74,000, and still operating below the 200-day exponential moving average. Previously, BTC rose above $73,000 on April 6 but fell back due to the breakdown of U.S.-Iran negotiations and Trump's announcement to block the Strait of Hormuz. There are internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve FOMC regarding interest rate cuts in 2026, and CME Fedwatch data shows that the probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged in the meetings on April 29 and June 17 is over 98%.

Analyst Markus Thielen stated that the fund flow into Bitcoin ETFs has recently turned positive again and is expected to achieve net inflows for the second consecutive month, indicating an improvement in market sentiment.Data shows that the current fund flow trend is highly similar to that of the same period in 2025. At that time, the fund inflow was relatively smooth at the beginning of the year, but then there was a concentrated inflow of about $30 billion, which drove Bitcoin to continue rising in the following months.Analysis suggests that the recent fund inflow indicates that the market has gradually digested the previous selling pressure, marking the first net inflow since March, which may provide support for future market trends.

Macro analyst Jordi Visser stated that although the market generally expects the cryptocurrency industry to enter a bear market, Bitcoin and Ethereum are less than 10% away from triggering key levels for a trend reversal.He pointed out that if Bitcoin breaks above $76,000 and Ethereum rises above $2,400, it could mark the beginning of a sustained upward trend for the year. Visser believes that the probability of a recession in the U.S. in the short term is low, a judgment that aligns with the pricing of the prediction market Kalshi, which currently estimates the probability of a recession in 2026 to be around 24%.He also noted that in the context of high inflation and a lack of clear growth momentum in traditional markets (such as the S&P 500), funds may continue to flow into asset classes with income potential. However, there are still divergences in the market; veteran trader Peter Brandt recently stated that the low point for Bitcoin this year may not have occurred yet, and prices could retest or even fall below the $60,000 range. Visser emphasized that the market should not be simply divided into bull and bear cycles, but should be judged from a longer-term structural and liquidity change perspective.

According to Cointelegraph, macro investor Jordi Visser stated that Bitcoin and Ethereum are not far from key price levels that could indicate a trend reversal this year, despite an increasing number of opinions in the industry suggesting that the market has entered a bear cycle. He said, "If Bitcoin breaks through $76,000, and Ethereum breaks through $2,400, I believe this will mark the beginning of a sustainable upward trend this year, as I do not expect an economic recession."Visser also stated, "I believe inflation will remain high, and people will need to look for profitable assets in a world where the S&P index has no gains." The prediction market Kalshi currently prices the probability of a recession in 2026 at 24%, down 10 percentage points from the past 30 days. Visser's views contrast with the growing pessimism in the current crypto industry—some even expect Bitcoin to fall below the year-to-date low of $60,000 set on February 6. Veteran trader Peter Brandt stated on March 31 that Bitcoin may retest or even "slightly dip below" that price level in September or October this year, which would mark the low point of this bear market.

According to Jinshi reports, ING analyst Francesco Pesole stated that if the U.S. CPI data shows a significant acceleration in March inflation driven by rising energy prices due to the Iran war, the dollar may gain support.Although the situation in the Middle East remains a major driving factor, the threshold for further declines in the dollar today should be raised. He also pointed out that the Federal Reserve needs to pay attention in the coming months to whether core inflation will experience a second-round effect, where businesses pass on higher costs through prices and wages.

BIT's weekly report indicates that with the announcement of a ceasefire, inflationary pressures have risen, and the selection of the Federal Reserve Chair is also in a phase of heightened transition expectations. Logically, these factors combined should have led to more significant market fluctuations, but Bitcoin's overall response remains relatively limited. The market's muted reaction to multiple variables coming into play is noteworthy.From a geopolitical perspective, the ceasefire arrangement promoted by Trump still faces considerable uncertainty in its actual implementation. Iran's influence in the passage arrangements in the Strait of Hormuz remains strong, and related shipping traffic is significantly below normal levels.From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin is in a clearly oversold range, with some indicators beginning to show marginal recovery. However, it is still too early to conclude that the downward trend has ended based solely on these signals. In 2022, a similar oversold condition lasted for several months, during which there were moments of rebound signals, but ultimately failed to form an effective reversal. More important than whether the indicators rebound is which price level will trigger a market repricing, as well as the outcomes of two key events next week.

According to CoinDesk, as market sentiment improves, the Bitcoin options market is showing a significant shift. The call options with a strike price of $80,000 on Deribit have become the most popular trades, with an open interest exceeding $1.6 billion, surpassing the previously dominant $60,000 put options (with an open interest of about $1.41 billion). Analysts believe that the recent temporary ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran has led to a decline in oil prices, easing inflation expectations, which may enhance the market's expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, thereby benefiting risk assets including Bitcoin.In addition, asset management firm 21Shares stated that with continued inflows into ETFs and increased institutional holdings, if the geopolitical situation eases and the regulatory environment improves, Bitcoin could potentially surge to $100,000 by the end of the second quarter. However, risks remain in the market; the current ceasefire situation is relatively fragile, and if the conflict in the Middle East escalates again, a rebound in oil prices could suppress market risk appetite, thereby limiting Bitcoin's upside potential.

Former Goldman Sachs executive, author of "Global Macro Investor," and co-founder and CEO of Real Vision Raoul Pal stated on social media, "The ETH/BTC exchange rate has become very interesting now, consistent with the trends of the business cycle (ISM rising) and increasing liquidity. From a long-term chart perspective, the trend remains very constructive. Since 2017, ETH has largely maintained its value relative to BTC; if this chart continues to develop along the current trend, ETH should outperform BTC over time.This is also intuitively reasonable: as a smart contract platform, ETH's total addressable market (TAM) is fundamentally different from the 'store of value' property of BTC. BTC primarily carries the total savings value, while ETH can carry the value of economic activity itself. Because of this difference, the dominance of smart contracts relative to BTC will continue to rise over time."

Bloomberg ETF senior analyst Eric Balchunas posted on the X platform that American "Baby Boomer" investors have quietly invested about $500 million into Bitcoin spot ETFs amid a challenging market environment and frequent macroeconomic headwinds, which has somewhat filled the funding gap since the beginning of the year.However, data shows that the overall net inflow into Bitcoin ETFs is still slightly negative year-to-date, indicating that the market as a whole remains in a wait-and-see stance. The recent round of capital inflow demonstrates some traditional capital's long-term allocation interest in Bitcoin ETFs.

Despite the cooling of the cryptocurrency market, stablecoins continue to develop rapidly. According to DefiLlama data, the total market capitalization of stablecoins increased by 0.43% over the past week, with a circulating market cap of $31.7255 billion, reaching a historic high.Meanwhile, the market share of USDT continues to decline, falling below 60% to currently report 58.03%. The stablecoin USDS under Sky has seen significant growth, with a circulating market cap increase of 9.57% over the past week, currently reporting a circulating market cap of $8.924 billion, making it the third largest stablecoin by market cap.

Market maker Wintermute's latest market weekly report indicates that the ratio of Bitcoin perpetual contract trading volume to spot trading volume has risen to 15 times, while the funding rate volatility has dropped to a low point in this cycle, showing that market leverage is high but there is insufficient directional consensus. The current structure is closer to "compression and accumulation," or brewing significant unilateral volatility.Wintermute believes that if geopolitical tensions ease and oil prices fall back to around $100, short positions will face the risk of being squeezed to between $70,000 and $74,000. If the situation continues to ease, the resistance level at $74,000 may be tested.Conversely, if the situation escalates further and oil prices rise to $120, oil prices could drop to just above $60, and if the cyclical trend is similar, it could fall to the mid-high $50,000 range. More macro-wise, the directionality here is not important; what matters is the market structure itself. The leverage on futures contracts is high, capital flows are fluctuating within the narrowest range ever recorded, and volatility is also narrowing.Regarding which direction the catalysts ultimately develop, the market structure indicates that the resulting volatility will far exceed the levels currently reflected in spot, futures, and options prices.