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DOGE $0.0810 +1.25%
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BCH $214.28 +0.88%
LINK $7.32 +1.46%
HYPE $56.46 -2.39%
AAVE $60.49 +0.87%
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XLM $0.2052 +8.97%
ZEC $356.86 +12.43%

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Analysis: On-chain data does not show that investors are massively selling off crypto assets to participate in the SpaceX IPO

According to CoinDesk, despite market speculation that some retail investors may sell Bitcoin to participate in SpaceX's record-breaking $75 billion IPO, stablecoin liquidity and on-chain data show that there are currently no signs of large-scale capital withdrawal from the crypto market.This SpaceX IPO is valued at approximately $1.8 trillion, allocating up to 30% of shares to retail investors through platforms such as Robinhood, Fidelity, and Charles Schwab, significantly higher than the traditional IPO's allocation of about 10% to individual investors. After the roadshow began, subscription demand has exceeded the issuance scale.Data shows that the outflow of USDT and USDC remains within the normal range since February this year, with no abnormal redemptions or supply contractions. In contrast, on June 6, Bitcoin and Ethereum recorded net outflows of approximately 66,470 BTC and 2.49 million ETH from exchanges, indicating that more investors are transferring assets to private wallets, showing signs of buying the dip rather than concentrated cashing out.However, on-chain data cannot reflect the trading behavior of users on platforms like Robinhood and Coinbase, so whether crypto investors are selling assets to subscribe to SpaceX stock still requires waiting for relevant brokers to release subsequent data.Currently, the most significant capital outflows are coming from spot ETFs. Data shows that as of June 3, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced net outflows for 13 consecutive trading days, with total redemptions of approximately $4.4 billion; spot Ethereum ETFs have seen capital outflows for 17 consecutive trading days before returning to slight net inflows.According to the plan, SpaceX will complete pricing on June 11 and will be listed on Nasdaq under the stock code SPCX on June 12.

Analyst: To support a valuation of about $1.75 trillion, SpaceX's revenue needs to grow nearly 60 times in the next decade, an unprecedented increase

According to a report by Fortune, David Trainer, CEO of research firm New Constructs, analyzed that to support a valuation of approximately $1.75 trillion, SpaceX needs to increase its annual revenue to about $1.1 trillion by 2035, which is nearly a 60-fold increase from $18.7 billion in 2025, equivalent to maintaining an average annual revenue growth rate of about 50% over the next decade.According to the prospectus previously submitted by SpaceX, the company's revenue in 2025 is projected to be $18.7 billion, with a net loss of $4.9 billion. Trainer calculated based on a discounted cash flow model that if investors want to achieve an annualized return of about 10% over the next decade, SpaceX must achieve the aforementioned growth targets.Analysis indicates that if it reaches a revenue scale of $1.1 trillion, SpaceX's revenue would account for about 2.4% of the U.S. GDP in 2035, with an economic scale exceeding the entire U.S. utility industry and approaching three-quarters of the U.S. transportation industry.Trainer stated that although the artificial intelligence market has vast potential, many competitors, including Alphabet, Microsoft, NVIDIA, and OpenAI, are competing for market share, and SpaceX lacks historical precedent to achieve such a scale of growth. He believes that SpaceX could not only become the largest IPO in history but also the most expensive in terms of valuation.

The second trial of the 660,000 yuan virtual currency theft case in Wuhan, China, has been revised: the main culprit was sentenced to ten years and six months in prison, and the amount stolen was determined based on the actual payment cost incurred by the victim

According to the "Procuratorial Daily," Lin, Zeng, and Dai conspired to use virtual currency trading as a pretext. During the trading process, they secretly filmed the victim's digital wallet private key and, after the virtual currency was credited, secretly logged into the victim's wallet to reverse the transaction, transferring the related virtual currency back to their controlled accounts. The three committed the crime three times, causing the victim a total economic loss of 660,000 yuan.The first-instance court held that in the absence of a clear judicial interpretation regarding the valuation method of virtual currency and sentencing standards, it was inappropriate to directly determine the amount involved as particularly huge based on the victim's purchase amount of 660,000 yuan. Therefore, they sentenced the three based on "other serious circumstances," imposing prison terms ranging from eight years to five years and six months, along with fines. The Hanyang District Procuratorate of Wuhan City in Hubei Province subsequently filed an appeal, which was supported by the Wuhan City Procuratorate.The prosecution argued that the first-instance court applied the law incorrectly and imposed an excessively light sentence. Prosecutor Dai Wentao of the Wuhan City Procuratorate stated that in the case where the victim had a clear loss amount to refer to, it was contradictory and legally erroneous to claim that the value of virtual currency could not be determined. In judicial practice, using the resale price and transaction price as the basis for determining the amount of theft has become mainstream, and determining the value of virtual currency based on the actual cost paid by the victim has factual, legal, and practical basis.The Intermediate Court of Wuhan accepted the prosecution's opinion in the second instance, revoked the corresponding content of the original judgment, and changed the determination of the theft amount to particularly huge. It sentenced the principal offender Lin to ten years and six months in prison for theft, and sentenced the accomplices Zeng and Dai to eight years in prison each, along with fines.
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