bit

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the "Bitcoin June Price Prediction" event on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of the "Yes" option in the sub-market "57,500 USD" has experienced significant fluctuations, rising from 37.65% an hour ago to the current 53.65% (a fluctuation of 16%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to a report by crypto.news, Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz stated that the core reason for Bitcoin's recent decline is the "collapse of confidence triggered by Strategy." The issue lies not only in the price of Bitcoin itself but also in the growing concerns in the market regarding Strategy's financing model.As the largest publicly traded holder of Bitcoin globally, Strategy's stock and preferred securities have become key indicators for traders to measure Bitcoin market risk. Previously, the company's Bitcoin flywheel effect had come under pressure, with stock trading prices dipping below the value of its Bitcoin holdings, indicating that its long-reliant "premium stock issuance to repurchase Bitcoin" model is being challenged. Novogratz bluntly stated that STRC trading is weak, which should have been maintained around $100. Currently, Strategy's annual dividend obligation has risen to about $1.2 billion, and a decline in cash reserves has reduced the dividend coverage period to only about 14 months.Bitcoin is also facing pressure on a macro level. Novogratz summarized the current market logic as "a strong dollar means a weak Bitcoin," with hawkish central bank signals and a strengthening dollar suppressing demand for risk assets. From a technical perspective, the $59,000 to $60,000 range for Bitcoin has become a critical defense line, and if it breaks down, the downward space could open up to $45,000.Novogratz also admitted that the current situation is complex, with a 50-50 probability of a rebound or a deep correction. Outflows from ETF funds, weak liquidity, and cautious positioning in the options market further confirm the fragile market sentiment. Now, the health of Strategy's balance sheet, the performance of STRC prices, and cash positions have evolved from being company-level issues to becoming confidence signals for the overall Bitcoin market.

Digital Currency Group (DCG) subsidiary Yuma announced the launch of a market-wide fund aimed at providing investment opportunities in the Bittensor network's native token TAO and its subnet ecosystem through a single investment strategy. Currently, Bittensor has launched 128 subnets, with a total asset value exceeding $900 million.DCG founder and CEO Barry Silbert stated that most AI investments are currently flowing to a few centralized legacy companies, which are now trying to enter the public market. Bittensor offers an alternative: an open, decentralized network built by builders and innovators at the forefront of artificial intelligence development.

According to Cointelegraph, Swan CEO Cory Klippsten believes that the probability of Bitcoin reaching an all-time high in 2026 is only 10% to 15%.Cory Klippsten stated that some truly exogenous events must occur, and he believes that currently, it is unknown what events could cause the price of Bitcoin to double within the next six months.

Strategy founder Michael Saylor has once again released information related to the Bitcoin Tracker and stated, "We are gonna need more charts."According to previous patterns, Strategy always discloses information about increasing Bitcoin holdings the day after relevant news is released.

According to Cointelegraph, CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that the Bitcoin unspent transaction output (UTXO) data shows that the proportion of loss transactions to profit transactions in the current market has dropped to the lowest level of this bear market cycle, indicating that investors are entering a clear "surrender" phase.This indicator has previously triggered multiple times at historical cycle bottom areas. The last similar low occurred during the mid-2023 deep phase of the bear market, when the Bitcoin price briefly fell to around $26,000. Analysts believe that such phases usually correspond to extremely low market sentiment, with long-term investors gradually starting to accumulate again.Darkfost pointed out that this is the first time this signal has been triggered since the start of the current correction, indicating that the number of UTXOs sold at a loss is significantly increasing, reflecting a broader sell-off and surrender behavior that has begun. He also added that the spent output profit ratio (SOPR) of long-term holders' Bitcoin is gradually entering negative territory.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the event of "Bitcoin breaking through on June 28" in the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of the "yes" option in the sub-market "60,000" has experienced significant fluctuations, soaring from 45.95% an hour ago to the current 66.3% (a fluctuation of 20.35%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

Grayscale Research's research director Zach Pandl stated that rather than raising the STRC preferred stock dividend yield by 50 basis points, it would be better to sell over $3 billion in Bitcoin to meet cash payment obligations and restore market confidence. As an institutional researcher, Zach Pandl publicly suggested that Strategy's sale of over $3 billion in BTC has certain indicative significance.If Strategy ultimately implements a large-scale sale, it will bring considerable selling pressure to the market and may weaken the narrative of companies continuously hoarding Bitcoin. This viewpoint also reflects market concerns about Strategy's capital structure and its heavy reliance on the sustainability of its Bitcoin balance sheet. Attention should be paid to Strategy's official response and whether there are actual Bitcoin transfers in its on-chain wallet.

According to Cointelegraph, in the wave of declines in technology stocks, cryptocurrency-related stocks have suffered particularly severe losses, with the divergence from the broader market continuing to widen. Coinbase (COIN) and Circle (CRCL) have fallen 69% and 72% from their respective historical highs, far exceeding the 48% to 57% pullback of mainstream tech stocks like Oracle, Salesforce, Netflix, and Palantir; in contrast, the S&P 500 index has only retreated 3.5% from its recent peak.On the fundamental side, Coinbase's first-quarter performance was significantly below Wall Street expectations, with a 21% quarter-over-quarter decline in revenue and a loss of $1.49 per share, while analysts had previously expected earnings of $0.27 per share. Bitcoin fell below $60,000 this week, down more than 54% from its October peak; Ethereum also dropped to around $1,500, down about 69% from last year's high, with market sentiment continuing to deteriorate.21Shares has lowered its 2026 cryptocurrency market expectations in its mid-year outlook report, believing that the performance of digital asset prices is significantly lagging behind the industry's fundamentals. The institution pointed out that institutional adoption is still deepening, with stablecoins, asset tokenization, and prediction markets maintaining strong development momentum, but the four-year market cycle of Bitcoin remains the dominant force in price trends. The report also acknowledged previous misjudgments—"the cycle of Bitcoin is evolving, but has not yet broken," retracting its earlier assertion that the four-year cycle was outdated.Analysts believe that the deep pullback in cryptocurrency stocks reflects the overall weakness of the digital asset market, the uncertainty of legislative progress in the U.S. cryptocurrency market structure, and the compounded pressure from the potential impact of AI technology on existing business models.

According to Onchain Lens monitoring, a newly created wallet withdrew 1,350 bitcoins (approximately 81.87 million USD) from Binance.

Fidelity Digital Assets recently released a research report that positively addresses concerns about the long-term impact of Bitcoin halving on network security. The report's author, Fidelity research analyst Daniel Gray, pointed out that Bitcoin network security relies not only on block rewards but also on transaction fees, market incentives, and other economic forces that continuously motivate miners to maintain network security, making the cost of sustained attacks prohibitively high.On the data front, Gray noted that despite the ongoing reduction in block subsidies, the rise in Bitcoin prices has significantly offset this impact. The average daily income of miners has increased from about $26,300 during the first halving cycle to over $40,200 today. He wrote, "Despite the decrease in issuance, miner incentives and the resulting network security have historically strengthened alongside the rise in Bitcoin prices."Since the fourth halving in April 2024, the block subsidy for miners has decreased from 6.25 to 3.125 Bitcoins per block. However, the optimistic conclusions of the report starkly contrast with the current realities faced by publicly traded mining companies. Several industry analysts describe the current environment as one of the most challenging for mining on record, due to the simultaneous decline in block rewards, rising operational costs, and increased competition.In response, several mining companies have begun to transition to the AI and high-performance computing sectors, leveraging existing power infrastructure to meet AI computing demands. VanEck estimates that publicly listed mining companies may need to raise up to $50 billion in additional funds to fully transition to AI infrastructure, but the requirements for AI data centers regarding facility standards, cooling, power redundancy, and networking are far higher than those of traditional Bitcoin mining operations, making the transition challenges significant.

The Kobeissi Letter analysis points out that since April, the cumulative net outflow from U.S. gold and Bitcoin-related ETFs has been about $12 billion, while during the same period, semiconductor ETFs recorded a net inflow of about $20 billion, with funds clearly concentrating in the technology growth sector.This trend accelerated further in mid-May: the outflow from gold and Bitcoin ETFs increased more than threefold, while the inflow into semiconductor ETFs doubled. In terms of market performance, the world's largest gold ETF GLD has fallen about 13% since early April, and the Bitcoin ETF IBIT has dropped about 12% during the same period; in contrast, semiconductor ETFs SOXX and SMH have risen approximately 81% and 60%, respectively.Analysis suggests that the current market shows a clear "risk preference switch," with retail funds accelerating their shift from safe-haven assets and crypto assets to high-growth semiconductor and AI-related sectors, driving the market in unprecedented ways.

According to the official announcement, Bitget has launched U-based CAP perpetual contracts, supporting up to 10x leverage, and the contract trading Bot will be opened simultaneously.

According to Coinglass data, the Coinbase Bitcoin premium index has been in negative territory for 40 consecutive days, with the latest report at -0.1569%. This indicator is often regarded as an important reference for measuring the strength of Bitcoin demand in the U.S. market.

According to CNBC, GMO co-founder and billionaire investor Jeremy Grantham has once again expressed skepticism about Bitcoin, calling it a "useless speculative asset" and believing it may eventually lose market relevance over time.Grantham stated that Bitcoin will not end with a sudden zeroing out or a dramatic collapse, but is more likely to gradually fade from the market's view over the next few years or even decades. "It will slowly disappear, not with a bang, but quietly."He believes that Bitcoin lacks intrinsic value and has not proven itself to be a reliable store of value. Grantham pointed out that even during periods of better macroeconomic performance, Bitcoin's price has still experienced significant pullbacks, making it difficult to be regarded as a stable wealth preservation asset.In contrast, he mentioned that while gold has also undergone price adjustments, it has maintained a relatively robust long-term performance overall.Additionally, Grantham questioned the practical application value of Bitcoin, arguing that it is not widely used for everyday payments or commercial transactions, thus lacking broad utility in the real world.

According to Coinglass data, if Bitcoin breaks through $62,000, the cumulative short liquidation intensity on mainstream CEX will reach $915 million. Conversely, if Bitcoin falls below $59,000, the cumulative long liquidation intensity on mainstream CEX will reach $697 million.The liquidation chart does not display the exact number of contracts pending liquidation or the exact value of contracts being liquidated. The bars on the liquidation chart actually show the importance of each liquidation cluster relative to nearby liquidation clusters, that is, the intensity. Therefore, the liquidation chart demonstrates to what extent the underlying price reaching a certain position will be affected. A higher "liquidation bar" indicates that once the price reaches that point, there will be a stronger reaction due to liquidity waves.

ARK Invest founder Cathie Wood stated on the X platform that capital outflows from globally less stable countries will bring new upward momentum for Bitcoin and other digital assets.She pointed out that artificial intelligence is leading a technological revolution and "drawing a lot of attention and liquidity" in the investment field, but AI cannot replace the role that digital assets play in the current global environment—especially as a "wealth insurance tool."Cathie Wood emphasized that against the backdrop of rising macro uncertainty, the demand from investors for asset preservation and cross-border allocation tools is increasing, and digital assets are gradually becoming an important means of meeting this demand.

According to CoinDesk, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse stated in an interview with CNBC that he remains optimistic about Bitcoin but believes that Strategy's model of financing Bitcoin purchases through preferred stock has harmed the crypto market.Garlinghouse said, "Financial engineering will not drive long-term value." He believes that the long-term value of any digital asset comes from its utility and stated, "Michael Saylor's team is not focused on the right things, which harms the overall market."The focus of Garlinghouse's criticism is the financing mechanism used by Strategy to accumulate Bitcoin. For about the past year, Strategy has raised funds through the issuance of preferred stock to continue purchasing Bitcoin. Its STRC stock has an annual dividend yield of 11.5%, designed to trade close to $100.Garlinghouse pointed out that STRC is currently about 25% below that level, which is a "harsh denial" of the strategy. STRC hit an all-time low on Thursday, at one point trading about 26% below par value. Meanwhile, Strategy's common stock fell to its lowest level since February 2024, closing around $82 on Friday; Bitcoin dropped below $59,000.This week, Strategy's financing model is facing more pressure. CryptoQuant stated that Strategy should pause Bitcoin purchases and rebuild cash reserves. The coverage period for STRC dividend payments has shrunk from over 7 years to about 14 months. When STRC falls below $100, the mechanism of issuing stock and purchasing Bitcoin will stall, which is also the reason for the company to pause this mechanism.Benchmark-StoneX analyst Mark Palmer believes that Strategy's financing engine has simply become "less efficient," rather than having failed, and opposes comparing STRC to assets that have completely collapsed.

Michael Saylor posted on the X platform stating that Bitcoin is operating normally, and so are we (Strategy).

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the event of "Bitcoin breaking through on June 27" in the prediction market Polymarket, the "yes" option in the sub-market "60,000" experienced a sharp fluctuation in winning probability, soaring from 68.2% an hour ago to the current 84.4% (a fluctuation of 16.2%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.