btc

Darkfost posted on platform X that Bitcoin is approaching the average cost price of two types of holding groups: investors holding for 18 months to 2 years have an average cost price of about $88,350, while investors holding for 6 to 12 months have an average cost price of about $89,200.Darkfost pointed out that the cost price is the average holding cost of the group, not a natural support or resistance level; as the price approaches this range, the behavior of related investors may change, and this area can be seen as a potential risk zone. The group of investors holding for 6 to 12 months has overall been at a loss for nearly a year, with some investors possibly having bought in at market peaks; some investors may sell after breaking even, while others may continue to buy to lower their holding costs.

QCP Capital released the latest market analysis stating that BTC has broken through the previous trading range of $82,500 to $85,700 that lasted for a week, reaching a high of $86,913 during the day, the highest since September 23. It is currently trading around $85,900, up 14.6% from the low of $74,968 on September 15. QCP pointed out that during this round of increase, the annualized funding rate for perpetual contracts was only 5.4%, indicating that the market was mainly driven by spot funds rather than leveraged trading. QCP believes that this round of BTC's rise diverges from traditional macro market signals. In September, the yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond rose to 5.62%, and the 10-year yield reached 5.29% at one point, while gold recorded its worst month of the year. Although rising real interest rates typically put pressure on gold and risk assets, BTC still rose.QCP believes that this market trend is more consistent with concentrated capital trading driven by institutional fund inflows, regulatory catalysts, and technical improvements, rather than purely a currency depreciation trading logic. Regarding institutional funds and regulatory factors, the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF recorded net inflows of approximately $3.5 billion and $2.6 billion in August and September, respectively. QCP noted that the innovative exemption policy released by the U.S. SEC on September 17 provided a new regulatory catalyst for the market, but since the CLARITY Act failed to pass in the Senate earlier, market structure legislation may be delayed until 2027. Therefore, current regulatory support comes more from the administrative level, and long-term policy certainty remains limited.In the options market, yesterday's options trading nominal amount was approximately $2.5 billion, involving 54 transactions with a nominal amount exceeding $5 million each. Among them, one client sold in batches call options expiring on October 30 with a strike price of $90,000, totaling over 4,000 contracts with a nominal amount of $346 million; at the same time, they actively bought call options with the same strike price expiring on November 27. QCP believes that this operation reflects that some traders are rolling their positions from October to November to position for the U.S. midterm elections, quarterly Treasury refinancing, and market volatility around the December Federal Reserve meeting.On the macroeconomic front, the Federal Reserve will hold a monetary policy meeting from October 27 to 28. QCP stated that after Federal Reserve official Williams said there was no need to rush to adjust policies further, and with the August core PCE coming in below expectations, market expectations for maintaining interest rates in October have warmed. However, the market still expects an approximately 80% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in December. The U.S. non-farm payroll report for September, to be released tonight, will be an important short-term test, with the market expecting an increase in non-farm payrolls of 84,000 to 93,000, an unemployment rate holding at 4.1%, and an average hourly wage year-on-year growth rate expected to be 3%.On the technical front, the support level of $82,500 has been tested three times in the past week, while $87,400 is the location of the September high and is a key resistance for BTC to further challenge $90,000. The implied volatility term structure in the options market is in a contango state, with a 7-day implied volatility of 30.3 and a 90-day implied volatility of 37.1; the 30-day risk reversal indicator is approximately -2.5 volatility points, indicating an increase in demand for short-term put protection. QCP believes that although BTC shows resilience in a macro environment of rising real interest rates, the market is still mainly driven by capital flows and position changes, and it cannot yet be considered that macro risks have been eliminated. U.S. employment data, Treasury supply, and the intensive policy events in the coming weeks may still trigger market volatility.

According to Coinglass data, if BTC falls below $82,061, the cumulative long liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $2.437 billion. Conversely, if BTC breaks above $90,338, the cumulative short liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $1.185 billion.

Crypto analyst alicharts combines long-term K-line charts of mainstream crypto assets to predict the potential peaks of various mainstream cryptocurrencies in this bull market from a technical analysis perspective as follows: The first target for Bitcoin is the previous high of $125,000. If this high is broken, it may reach the upper boundary of the ascending channel—close to $190,000. The Ethereum monthly chart shows the ascending channel it has followed over the past 5 years, with the upper boundary around $5,000 being a level to watch. If this level is broken, the expected trend will point towards $8,800.The SOL monthly chart appears to be forming a cup and handle pattern, with the neckline around $295. If the monthly close breaks this line, it will strengthen the bullish case, with the potential target of this pattern expected to be close to $2,744.

Cryptocurrency analyst @AxelAdlerJr stated that the buying pressure indicator in the Bitcoin futures market has risen to 4.9, the highest since August 19; the contract open interest has increased by nearly 9,000 BTC within 24 hours.This indicator reading means that the accumulated buying pressure over the past 12 hours is nearly five standard deviations higher than the average level of the past week. @AxelAdlerJr indicated that if the Bitcoin price remains above $85,000 while the upward momentum weakens, the upward trend is likely to continue; if the price falls below $83,000, the liquidation of newly established long positions may accelerate the decline.

According to the market intelligence platform Liquid24/7.xyz, the current price of BTC is approximately $86,199. The Binance perpetual near-end sell orders are about $62.71 million, and buy orders are about $40.03 million, with a net sell order surplus of about $22.67 million; Binance spot sell orders are about $11.80 million, and buy orders are about $8.18 million, with a net sell order surplus of about $3.62 million; Coinbase spot buy orders are about $10.98 million, and sell orders are about $9.28 million, with a net buy order surplus of about $1.71 million.OKX perpetual buy orders are about $15.84 million, and sell orders are about $9.94 million, with a net buy order surplus of about $5.90 million; Hyperliquid perpetual sell orders are about $10.98 million, and buy orders are only about $0.58 million, with a net sell order surplus of about $10.41 million. The near-end buy orders on Hyperliquid are noticeably thin, and if a large market order occurs, slippage may significantly increase.

Renowned trader Killa stated that the current Bitcoin trend has clearly shifted, yet we are still at the peak stage of the "market skepticism bull market."In the 2023 bull market, if one went long every time there was a sweep below the "established low" (meaning a low that has been confirmed by the market and has shown support), the price only dropped a maximum of 8% below that low; in some cases, it only dropped 4-5% before immediately rebounding.Our current "established low" is 82.5K; based on historical performance, the expected downward deviation will be very small. Killa, as a quantitative trader focused on BTC, predicted the peak of this bull market in May 2025 and has over 200,000 followers on platform X. In mid-April, he shorted Bitcoin at 74,688 USD and turned to long during the market-wide decline on June 5.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the market prediction event "Bitcoin Price Prediction from September 28 to October 4" on Polymarket, the "Yes" option for the sub-market "88,000 USD" experienced significant fluctuations in winning probability, dropping from 57% an hour ago to the current 38.5% (a fluctuation of 18.5%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to CoinGlass data, the total liquidation amount across the network in the past hour reached 122 million USD, with long positions liquidated at 2.6114 million USD and short positions liquidated at 119 million USD.During the same period, BTC liquidations were approximately 88.327 million USD, ETH liquidations were approximately 18.2665 million USD, and SOL liquidations were approximately 5.1455 million USD.

According to Coinglass data, the total contract open interest for BTC has increased by 5.9% in the past 24 hours, with the current total open interest at 56.226 billion USD. Among them, the open interest for Binance is 11.788 billion USD, OKX is 3.189 billion USD, Bybit is 5.833 billion USD, and Gate is 4.713 billion USD.

UPBIT will launch Dolphin (POD) on October 2 at 16:00 and support KRW, BTC, and USDT trading pairs. Users should note that only deposits and withdrawals on the POD-Base network are supported.

According to Gate market data, BTC/USDT is currently priced at $86145.3, with a 24-hour increase of 2.84%.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the market prediction event "Bitcoin Price Prediction for October 2" on Polymarket, the "Yes" option in the sub-market "86,000" experienced a sharp fluctuation in winning probability, soaring from 19.5% an hour ago to the current 34.5% (a fluctuation of 15%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to Coinglass data, the current whale holdings on the Hyperliquid platform amount to $9.003 billion, with long positions totaling $4.239 billion, accounting for 47.08% of the holdings, and short positions totaling $4.764 billion, accounting for 52.92%. The profit and loss for long positions is $537 million, while the profit and loss for short positions is -$580 million.Among them, the whale address 0x5b5d..60 has shorted ETH with a 5x leverage at a price of $2304.06, currently showing an unrealized profit and loss of -$43.1474 million.

According to Coinglass data, in the past 24 hours, the total liquidation across the network was 191 million dollars, with long positions liquidated at 107 million dollars and short positions liquidated at 83.3806 million dollars. Among them, Bitcoin long positions were liquidated at 11.8744 million dollars, Bitcoin short positions were liquidated at 24.7134 million dollars, Ethereum long positions were liquidated at 11.0347 million dollars, and Ethereum short positions were liquidated at 15.6904 million dollars.In addition, in the last 24 hours, a total of 66,942 people were liquidated globally, with the largest single liquidation occurring in Hyperliquid - ZEC-USD valued at 3.1356 million dollars.

Coinbase released a report indicating that the profit-taking scale of BTC has risen to its highest level of the year, while market demand has cooled. On September 22, holders realized a profit of 25,700 BTC in a single day, the highest daily level since 2026. At the same time, the unrealized profit margin for short-term traders rose to 33%, the highest since December 2024.Meanwhile, in the past 30 days, the apparent spot demand for BTC has decreased by 170,000 coins; the incremental speculative futures demand also dropped from 164,000 coins on September 14 to 16,000 coins on September 29.

According to Onchain Lens monitoring, VanEck's ETF wallet sold approximately 10.76 million dollars worth of assets through Gemini, including 45.41 BTC, valued at about 3.84 million dollars; and 2570 ETH, valued at about 6.91 million dollars.

According to Bitcoin News monitoring, a wallet that has been inactive since May 2011 transferred 20.43 BTC, worth 1.7 million dollars, ending 15.4 years of silence. Arkham tracking shows that these BTC came from Braiins (Slush Pool) with earnings of about 3 to 4 dollars.The BTC obtained by this wallet on May 1 and May 8, 2011, has been split and transferred to a SegWit address, with transaction fees of less than 1 dollar, and has not yet been transferred to any known exchange deposit addresses. Early transfers from the same wallet have also been marked as related to Mt. Gox and Silk Road, both of which were common channels in 2011. The Mt. Gox trustee still holds about 34,500 BTC, with the creditor claim deadline set for October 31, 2026.

According to Coinglass data, if BTC falls below $80,616, the cumulative long liquidation intensity on mainstream CEX will reach $2.007 billion. Conversely, if BTC breaks above $88,442, the cumulative short liquidation intensity on mainstream CEX will reach $1.242 billion.

According to Gate market data, BTC/USDT is currently reported at $85000, with a 24-hour increase of 0.93%.