candidate

The prediction market platform Kalshi has publicly disclosed its first cases of regulatory violations, involving former California gubernatorial candidate Kyle Langford and video editor Artem Kaptur from YouTube star MrBeast's team.Langford was fined $2,246.36 and banned from using the platform for five years for posting a video on X platform showing his bet on his own election victory, violating the platform's rules that prohibit candidates from betting in related election markets. Kaptur was accused of using insider information to trade approximately $4,000 in related markets during his tenure at MrBeast, resulting in significant profits; he was fined $20,397.58 and suspended for two years. MrBeast's parent company, Beast Industries, stated that it has initiated an internal investigation and emphasized a zero-tolerance policy for such behavior.Kalshi has reported both cases to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and the fines will be donated to nonprofit organizations. The platform revealed that it has conducted over 200 investigations into insider trading in the past year.

According to Jinshi, U.S. President Trump stated that any candidate for the Federal Reserve Chair would perform excellently. Hassett has done a great job, and I just don't want Hassett to leave this position.

According to Fortune, in the past two weeks, Rick Rieder's odds of becoming the next Federal Reserve Chair on Polymarket have surged to nearly 50%, clearly leading over the second-ranked Kevin Warsh (29%) and the third-ranked Christopher Waller (6%). Rieder's career has been almost entirely on the front lines of the global bond market, working as a trader and asset manager, deeply involved in the market, interpreting and profiting from central bank policy signals. Simply put, no one understands the bond market better than Rick Rieder. And in Trump's policy decision-making, nothing is more important than "whether the bond market is up or down."Currently, Rieder is responsible for BlackRock's global fixed income business, managing up to $2.4 trillion, which accounts for about one-sixth of the $14 trillion in assets under management at the world's largest asset management firm. A former CEO who worked with Rieder described him as "extremely personable" and stated that Rieder "has a very good understanding of how the market operates and is able to maintain independent judgment."If Rieder takes over as Federal Reserve Chair in May, he will face extremely daunting challenges. His stance on the federal funds rate has long been clear and is more aligned with Trump's camp. In an interview with CNBC on January 12, Rieder stated, "The Fed needs to lower rates to 3% (currently 3.50%--3.75%), which I believe is closer to a balanced level." The problem is that the Fed is currently implementing two policies that could potentially raise inflation. In mid-December last year, the central bank reversed its previous quantitative tightening (QT) policy. Additionally, the Fed is also reducing the amount of reserves that banks must hold at the central bank.

The White House economic advisor and director of the National Economic Council, Kevin Hassett, recently stated that Trump is more likely to want him to continue in his current position at the White House. This statement has been interpreted by the market as a sign that he is essentially withdrawing from the race for the next chairman of the Federal Reserve.After Trump publicly released this signal, the prediction market quickly adjusted its expectations. Data from Kalshi and Polymarket shows that the probability of former Fed governor Kevin Walsh becoming the next chairman of the Federal Reserve has surged to about 60%, clearly leading; Hassett's chances have dropped to about 15%–16%, while current governor Christopher Waller stands at about 13%–14%. Previously, Walsh and Hassett were considered evenly matched.Analysts point out that Walsh has become the "clear frontrunner" for the first time, but Trump has a history of changing his mind on personnel issues, leaving the final outcome uncertain. Other major candidates still include Waller and BlackRock executive Rick Rieder.Meanwhile, the judicial investigation surrounding the Federal Reserve's headquarters renovation project adds uncertainty to the chairman selection process and has reignited market concerns about the Fed's independence. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin downplayed the related impact, stating that the market is generally stable and that the Senate is expected to accept Trump's final nominee.Current Fed Chairman Powell's term will end on May 15. Trump has stated that he will announce his successor within this month but has not provided a specific timeline.

After the U.S. Department of Justice launched an investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, the situation began to change in a direction contrary to Trump's expectations. The probability of Powell remaining in his position until 2028 after his term ends in May has started to rise, while the chances of the more hawkish candidate for the next chairman, Warsh, have begun to surpass those of Hassett. Trump may find himself in a year-long game with the Federal Reserve.Polymarket data shows that shortly after Powell released a video responding to the investigation on January 11, the probability of him leaving the Federal Reserve Board by the end of May and by the end of the year both plummeted. Currently, bettors believe the probability of Powell leaving the Federal Reserve by May 30 has dropped from 74% earlier this month to 45%, and the probability of him stepping down by the end of the year has decreased from 85% to 62%.The prediction market has also adjusted its expectations for Trump's ally Kevin Hassett being nominated to succeed Powell as Federal Reserve chairman. Before and after the news of the U.S. Department of Justice investigation broke, the more hawkish candidate Kevin Warsh began to gain support over Hassett in Polymarket.Policy analyst Dan Clifton stated that since last summer, there has been an informal agreement between Trump and Powell—if Powell agrees to leave the Federal Reserve when his term ends in May, Trump would not challenge the Federal Reserve's multi-billion dollar renovation project. Trump had previously harshly criticized the renovation plan, but his criticism of the Federal Reserve has diminished in the second half of last year. This bottom line was broken last Sunday, making it more likely for Powell to remain at the Federal Reserve as an ordinary board member. By continuously attacking Powell personally, it is likely to end up being a futile effort.

According to Jinshi reports, U.S. President Trump stated in an exclusive interview with The New York Times that he has decided who to nominate for the next Federal Reserve Chairman, but did not disclose the specific candidate. He mentioned, "I have made a decision in my mind," and stated that he has not talked to anyone yet. Trump referred to his chief economic advisor, Hassett, as "absolutely one of my favorite people." The prediction market Kalshi shows that the probability of Kevin Walsh being elected as Federal Reserve Chairman is 41%, Kevin Hassett is 39%, and Christopher Waller is 12%.

Brazilian presidential candidate and founder of the party Missão, Renan Santos, recently stated in a podcast that Brazil should consider establishing a national Bitcoin reserve, claiming that the proposal is "feasible in reality." He pointed out that some countries have begun exploring similar practices, and Brazil could gradually build a Bitcoin reserve system.Renan Santos mentioned that his campaign platform includes content related to Bitcoin and believes that blockchain technology can serve as a tool for the public sector to enhance transparency and combat corruption. Previously, the Brazilian Congress held a public hearing on the strategic Bitcoin reserve topic, with discussions initiated by pro-crypto legislators. The Brazilian presidential election will take place this October.

According to Jinshi Data reports, there are market rumors that the White House is considering nominating a group of bipartisan candidates to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

According to Jinshi, Larry Kudlow, the Director of the National Economic Council at the White House, stated that the three-month average of core inflation is currently 1.6%; Trump is seeking data-driven candidates among the nominees for the Federal Reserve Chair.

According to Jinshi News, Ken Griffin, the founder of Citadel Investment, stated that the president has found a suitable candidate for the Federal Reserve Chairman.

According to The Wall Street Journal, U.S. President Trump stated on Friday that Kevin Warsh has risen to the top of his list of candidates for the next Federal Reserve chair, although other contenders are still in the running. Warsh, who was previously seen as a candidate but not the frontrunner (he himself served as a Federal Reserve governor), has apparently gained further favor after meeting with Trump on Wednesday."Yes, I think he is," Trump told the media when asked if Warsh was in the top position, according to an interview released on Friday afternoon. Speaking about the previously favored candidate, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, Trump said, "I think both Kevins are great." "I think there are several other excellent candidates as well," he added.Hassett had previously emerged as the leading candidate. In public appearances, when asked about the possibility of taking on the role, he has remained cautious, only stating that he would accept if invited. Massachusetts Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren expressed concern on Thursday during an appearance on CNBC that Trump might appoint a "puppet" to serve as Federal Reserve chair to carry out his wishes.In addition to emphasizing Warsh's potential for the position, Trump reiterated his past view that the Federal Reserve chair should consult the president on interest rate decisions. This move would overturn the tradition of the Federal Reserve maintaining its independence.

According to Jin Ten, U.S. President Trump stated on December 12 that former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh is the top candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair, and White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett has also performed well. Trump hopes that the federal funds rate will drop to "1% or even lower" in a year to reduce the financing costs for the U.S. Treasury. He also mentioned that the next Federal Reserve Chair should consult him when formulating interest rate policies, but does not have to follow his advice completely.

According to Jinshi reports, White House National Economic Council Director Hassett stated that President Trump will finalize the next Federal Reserve Chair nominee within the next week or two. Hassett is a leading candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair, and in an interview with Fox News, he pointed out that based on "stronger economic data," "it is certainly possible to cut rates by 50 basis points, or even more."

According to Jinshi reports, White House National Economic Council Director Hassett stated: He has not discussed the Federal Reserve Chairman (candidate) issue with President Trump and supports Bessen's views on the Federal Reserve Chairman.

U.S. President Trump: I know who I want to be the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, and I will announce it soon.

According to informed sources, as the selection process for the new chair of the Federal Reserve enters its final weeks, Kevin Hassett, the director of the National Economic Council, has emerged as the top contender to take over the Federal Reserve in the eyes of White House advisors and Trump allies.Anonymous sources indicate that if Hassett is appointed, Trump will place a close ally he knows and trusts in the independent central bank. Some individuals point out that Hassett is seen as someone who can bring Trump's interest rate cut ideas into the Federal Reserve—an institution that Trump has long sought to influence, now facing a historic turning point.However, they also caution that Trump is known for his unpredictable personnel decisions, and everything remains uncertain until the official nomination is announced. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt stated in a release, "No one can predict his decisions until President Trump takes action." Fox News White House reporter Edward Lawrence also noted that there is currently no frontrunner in the selection of the next Federal Reserve chair.A senior U.S. official confirmed that the final candidate list has not yet been submitted to the White House. The selection of the Federal Reserve chair and board members has traditionally been the most direct way for a president to influence the central bank. Trump nominated the current chair, Jerome Powell, during his first term, and he expressed deep regret over that decision when Powell did not proceed with rate cuts as expected.Hassett is highly aligned with Trump in economic policy, with both believing that further rate cuts are necessary. (Jin Shi)