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dis

After Kalshi filed an appeal, the compliance dispute in the prediction market may be handed over to the U.S. Supreme Court

The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit heard oral arguments from lawyers representing the prediction market platform Kalshi and Nevada authorities regarding Nevada's ban on the platform's event contracts. This appeal stems from a lower court ruling that prohibited Kalshi from offering certain event-based contracts in Nevada based on the claim that Kalshi requires a license.The appellate court judges responsible for Thursday's oral arguments and Kalshi's lawyers acknowledged that there have been several state-level enforcement actions against Kalshi and other prediction market platforms, including criminal charges filed in Arizona. However, a federal court last week blocked Arizona authorities from enforcing the state's gambling laws against Kalshi's event contracts."I believe existing case law does indicate that what we want to avoid here is state courts and federal courts simultaneously considering the exact same issue and potentially reaching different conclusions," said Colleen Sinzdak, representing Kalshi.The core argument of Kalshi's debate is that the platform's event contracts fall under "swap" transactions and should be regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, rather than state gambling regulators. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig supported this position in the case involving Crypto.com's prediction market and Nevada authorities.Coinbase Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal predicted that this case may be appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court. "The questions in the oral arguments are not a reliable signal of the court's leanings; nonetheless, I stand by my long-standing prediction that the Supreme Court will rule on whether sports contracts on designated contract markets fall under the exclusive jurisdiction of the CFTC as swap transactions."

Ruisui Bank: Musk's X Money may disrupt the U.S. payment market and impact PayPal

According to a report by The Block, Mizuho Bank research analysts released a report on Thursday stating that the financial feature X Money launched by Elon Musk's X platform has the potential to disrupt the U.S. payment industry, but the cryptocurrency integration plan may face regulatory obstacles.Mizuho analysts Dan Dolev and Andrew Jenkins wrote in a client report that X Money is positioned as the financial infrastructure layer of the X platform, aiming to integrate instant messaging, bank deposits, and commercial transaction functions, similar to the "super app" model of WeChat Pay or Alipay. With 500 to 600 million monthly active users on the X platform and Musk's background as a co-founder of PayPal in the payment industry, X Money has the potential to disrupt the U.S. payment industry.On the regulatory front, the analysts pointed out two major potential obstacles: first, the recent "CRYPTO Act" proposed in New York aims to criminalize unlicensed virtual currency operations in the state, which will raise the compliance threshold for X's future cryptocurrency integration plans; second, the "Clarity Act" may restrict non-bank financial platforms from offering yields to users, potentially hindering X Money's plan to provide users with an annualized yield of 6% on cash balances, with analysts stating that the timing for the launch of this yield product is "particularly sensitive."Mizuho also downgraded PayPal (PYPL) stock rating to "neutral," noting that PayPal and its Venmo app face the most direct substitution risk, as X is targeting the same peer-to-peer transfer and digital wallet entry points.This week, the X platform also launched a new feature called "Cashtags," allowing users to view financial data for stocks and cryptocurrencies directly in their timeline.

J.P. Morgan: Negotiations on the CLARITY Act have entered the final stage, with disputes narrowed down to 2-3 core issues

JPMorgan analysts have stated that negotiations for the U.S. "Cryptocurrency Market Structure Act" (i.e., the CLARITY Act) have entered the final stages, with both sides reaching compromises on a few remaining contentious points. The number of disputes has been reduced from over a dozen to 2-3 core issues, with discussions on stablecoin rewards being "in a good place." While banks express concerns about stablecoins offering similar yields to deposits, there is an overall bipartisan compromise trend. JPMorgan believes that "there is no perfect bill," and once passed, the bill will provide important regulatory clarity for the integration of digital assets into the U.S. financial system.The "Cryptocurrency Market Structure Act" is currently in advanced negotiations in the U.S. Senate, with Senate staff stating that the draft is "very close" to resolution, but the final text has not yet been released, nor has a formal vote been scheduled. The remaining major disagreements focus on stablecoin rewards, DeFi regulation, and token classification issues. Although optimism is rising, there is still a risk of delays due to the 2026 midterm elections, which could lead to a more uncertain political environment. If the bill is ultimately passed, it will delineate the regulatory authority between the SEC and CFTC, providing a long-term regulatory framework for stablecoins, DeFi, and the entire cryptocurrency industry.
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