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Data: The high-position chips of BTC in 2025 have decreased by 41.5%, and the market's maximum supply pressure may be easing

On-chain analyst Murphy stated that currently, all chips bought in BTC in 2025 are basically in a state of loss. Therefore, apart from wallet migrations, the reduction in the scale of 2025 chips likely means that holders are cutting losses and selling. Data shows that as of now, approximately 4.77 million BTC chips bought in 2025 remain, a decrease of 41.5% from the peak in December last year.From the downward trend, this group has experienced two phases: a rapid decrease in chips before February this year, and a significant slowdown in the rate of decline after February, although it still maintains a certain slope. Murphy believes that the 2025 chips may be the largest potential supply side in the current market scale. In contrast, the BTC chips formed in 2024, 2023, and 2022 have basically completed the release of high-level locked positions due to still having unrealized gains, and the slope of the curve is gradually flattening, indicating that the selling pressure from long-term holders is weakening.Historical data shows that during the bottom phases of the past two bear markets, high-level chips have shown a significant decline: at the bottom of the bear market in 2022, the chips bought at high levels in 2021 decreased by about 51%; at the bottom of the bear market in 2018, the chips bought at high levels in 2017 decreased by about 62%. If we refer to historical cycles, Murphy believes that in this bear market bottom phase, the reduction of high-level chips in 2025 may be in the range of 50%-60%, and the current decline of 41.5% indicates that there is still some room for release. However, this judgment has not yet considered the BTC bought by institutional investors such as spot ETFs and MicroStrategy, as this portion of chips is mostly in a long-term locked state, which may reduce the actual market supply pressure.

Nansen founder: Bitcoin will never drop below $60,000 again, there are no signs of an end to the global monetary easing cycle

Nansen founder and CEO Alex Svanevik stated that Bitcoin's current price of around $60,000 may have marked the low point of this cycle. "Personally, I don't think Bitcoin will go below $60,000 again; I believe that's in the past, and I think it's forever." Alex Svanevik said this judgment is based on Bitcoin's positioning as a hedge against global central bank currency expansion, and he has not seen signs that the global monetary easing cycle is about to end. At the same time, the crypto industry is undergoing a fundamental transformation; crypto assets were previously in the toy world of blockchain and are now entering the real world era.In terms of the public chain ecosystem, Svanevik holds a long-term bullish view on Solana, stating that the perception of it as merely a meme coin chain is completely absurd. He believes Solana has "possibly the most effective BD team" and "an incredible team." However, Svanevik declined to translate this judgment into a specific price prediction for SOL—"Intuitively, I would think it will rise, but I can't be sure." Svanevik is also optimistic about the Robinhood chain, which just launched in July this year, believing it is rising as a strong competitor to Base due to its excellent user distribution capabilities. However, he judges that Robinhood is unlikely to issue a token—on one hand, it doesn't need to, and on the other hand, as a publicly traded company on NASDAQ, issuing a token would logically contradict competing with its own stock, "All value should be directed to HOOD stock."

Solana plans to advance a supply tightening scheme, with the daily SOL burn amount possibly increasing from $47,000 to $650,000

The Solana community is advancing two governance proposals aimed at reducing the new issuance of SOL and increasing the scale of network fee burns, thereby tightening the token supply. Among them, governance proposal SIMD-0553 suggests introducing a resource consumption-based transaction fee mechanism, charging fees based on the network resources consumed by transactions. It is expected to increase the daily burn of SOL from the current approximately 650 coins (about $47,000) to between 7,500 and 9,000 coins (about $650,000).Another proposal, SIMD-0550, plans to double the rate of decline in SOL's annual inflation, bringing the minimum inflation target of 1.5% forward to 2029 instead of the originally planned 2032. This plan is expected to reduce the issuance of approximately 18.9 million SOL over the next six years, valued at about $1.36 billion at current prices. Currently, both proposals have received support from some validator nodes. As of the latest data, approximately 24.94 million SOL have participated in signaling votes, accounting for 5.8% of the 4.3265 million staked SOL, still about 39.95 million SOL short of the 15% threshold required to enter the formal voting phase. The deadline for supporting signals is August 18.A total of 16 validator nodes have expressed support, with the infrastructure company Helius contributing approximately 16.03 million SOL, accounting for nearly two-thirds of the current support. However, even if SIMD-0553 is successfully implemented, SOL will not immediately enter a deflationary state. Based on a maximum daily burn of 9,000 coins, it is still lower than the current daily new issuance of about 60,000 coins. Therefore, the community is advancing the burn mechanism and the reduction of issuance as linked reforms. If the proposal receives sufficient support from validator nodes, the Solana network will improve its long-term token economic model through a dual mechanism of "reducing new supply + increasing burns."

hot_img The five major tech giants have not started their data center leasing commitments, accumulating a total of $1.09 trillion, which is nearly four times their confirmed liabilities

According to an analysis by Reuters of LSEG data and company filings, Microsoft, Meta, Oracle, Amazon, and Alphabet have committed to future payments of approximately $1.09 trillion in uncommenced lease obligations, primarily for AI data centers, which is about four times their confirmed lease liabilities (approximately $285 billion). These commitments have not yet been included on the balance sheet but have been disclosed in the notes to the financial statements. Among them, Microsoft disclosed the largest amount, reaching $329.1 billion; Meta disclosed $278.99 billion and signed an additional $68 billion in new leases in July; Oracle disclosed $260 billion, nearly seven times its confirmed liabilities, with lease terms generally ranging from 15 to 19 years, and the company has warned that it may face risks if customers do not renew or are unable to fulfill their obligations; Alphabet and Amazon disclosed $85.2 billion and $137.21 billion, respectively.The analysis points out that if the demand for AI computing power continues to grow, these facilities will support the next phase of cloud business expansion; if demand falls short of expectations, companies may be forced to pay high costs for large amounts of long-term idle capacity. S&P Global Ratings has included the uncommenced leases of companies like Oracle in its adjusted debt forecasts. This data highlights the potential long-term financial pressure that the expansion of AI infrastructure brings to tech giants.
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