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BTC $77,273.14 +2.83%
ETH $2,423.37 +3.21%
BNB $640.09 +0.95%
XRP $1.48 +2.02%
SOL $88.79 -0.85%
TRX $0.3275 +0.19%
DOGE $0.0999 +1.54%
ADA $0.2596 +0.90%
BCH $453.70 +1.78%
LINK $9.63 +1.22%
HYPE $44.31 +1.94%
AAVE $116.43 +0.08%
SUI $1.00 +2.18%
XLM $0.1739 +4.03%
ZEC $324.68 -5.07%

trade

Wintermute: The ceasefire trade is dead, the market has returned to an upward trend, and the confirmation of the Strait's reopening may drive Bitcoin to break through $75,000

Wintermute stated that the market experienced two distinct phases last week: the first half of the week was driven by ceasefire expectations, with the Nasdaq rising 4.5%, Bitcoin up 2.6%, and the VIX falling below 20. Over the weekend, talks in Islamabad broke down, and the U.S. announced a comprehensive maritime blockade on Iranian ports, causing Brent crude oil to surge 8% in a single day, returning above $103, leading risk assets to give back their gains.On the macro front: U.S. March CPI rose 3.3% year-on-year, with core CPI slightly below expectations at 2.6%. The market believes this is still a concentrated energy shock rather than widespread inflation. Asian markets saw a slight decline overnight, with Nasdaq futures steady. The market's reaction to each new piece of news is weakening, suggesting that it may have priced in the worst-case scenario or is becoming complacent.In terms of crypto assets: Bitcoin closed up 2.6% last week but did not lead the gains. The price has been consolidating in the $65,000-$73,000 range for over two months. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $22.3 million last week, while Ethereum ETFs continued to bleed, with outflows reaching $327 million year-to-date. Open interest in perpetual contracts has stabilized in the $28-30 billion range.Options traders' gamma exposure in the $68,000-$72,000 range indicates that hedging activities will amplify bidirectional volatility within that range. Wintermute believes that the ceasefire trade is dead, and the market is returning to an escalation trend. However, the market's reaction function is weakening. Confirmation of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could push Bitcoin to break above $75,000, while continued escalation may keep prices in a range-bound fluctuation with a downward tendency. The earnings season may partially shift market attention back to fundamentals, which could change the positioning behavior at the edges of the range.

Market sentiment has turned bullish, with traders setting a target price of $88,000 for Bitcoin

Amid a significant rebound in Bitcoin whale activity and a sharp decline in inflows to trading platforms, traders are setting Bitcoin's target price at $88,000. This week, after four days of consolidation between $70,000 and $72,000, Bitcoin reached an intraday high of $73,255 on Friday.The current price structure resembles the breakout trend of the second quarter of 2025—at that time, the price had long been consolidating below the moving averages, and once it broke the descending trend line, it quickly surged to the next supply zone. Currently, $76,000 constitutes a key trigger point, which also corresponds to the upper boundary of the descending trend line formed since Bitcoin's decline from around $126,000. Once broken, the psychological resistance that has suppressed rebounds for the past few months may be eliminated.On-chain data shows that crypto analyst Amr Taha pointed out that in the past 30 days, inflows of Bitcoin from whales to exchanges have dropped to $2.96 billion, marking the first time since June 2025 that it has fallen below $3 billion, while this figure was as high as $8 billion in February this year. Meanwhile, as of April 9, long-term holders have realized a market value change of $49 billion, indicating that accumulation behavior has restarted.Taha stated that these indicators collectively reflect that chips are shifting from weak hands to strong hands, showing a trend of steady accumulation rather than aggressive selling. The CoinGlass liquidity map shows that a large amount of visible liquidity is concentrated in the $86,000 to $90,000 range.
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