Wintermute: ETF funds drive BTC to break $95,000, tariff disturbances cause a pullback but the structure remains healthy
BTC broke through the $95,000 resistance level for the first time since last November, reaching nearly $98,000, against the backdrop of ETF fund inflows and softening inflation data. However, following Trump's announcement of tariffs on eight European countries regarding Greenland, macro risk sentiment intensified, causing BTC to quickly retreat to around $92,000. Within hours, approximately $850 million in long positions were liquidated across the market, with BTC and ETH accounting for nearly half.From the perspective of the factors driving the rise, the market was primarily supported by three aspects: first, there was a significant inflow of Bitcoin spot ETF funds, with a net inflow of about $760 million in a single day and a weekly total of about $1.4 billion; second, inflation data continued to cool, with the U.S. core CPI at 2.6% year-on-year, the lowest since March 2021; third, BTC's rebound trading against hard assets like gold. On the macro level, the tariff news reintroduced downward pressure.Trump announced a 10% tariff on Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland, with plans to increase it to 25% in June. The EU subsequently prepared about €93 billion in countermeasures. Meanwhile, tensions in the Middle East continue to simmer, putting overall pressure on risk assets.On the regulatory and institutional front, recent developments continue to impact medium-term expectations: The CLARITY Act faced setbacks due to disagreements between Coinbase and the White House over stablecoin yield provisions, temporarily weakening the catalyst for regulatory clarity; Goldman Sachs confirmed it is actively researching tokenization and stablecoin-related technologies; South Korea passed amendments to establish a legal basis for tokenized securities; and the New York Stock Exchange confirmed it is exploring a tokenized 24/7 trading mechanism.Regarding the market outlook, the market-making institution Wintermute believes that this breakout is different from previous leverage-driven rallies, being more driven by real capital inflows. Although Monday's sharp drop was severe, leverage was quickly cleared, and the market did not experience a chain reaction of downward movements, with the overall structure still appearing healthy. In the short term, attention should be paid to whether BTC can hold above $90,000 and whether ETF fund flows will continue; if this range is lost, the consolidation range since last November may revert to a resistance level.