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XLM $0.1656 -1.68%
ZEC $284.38 -3.20%
BTC $67,744.70 -1.27%
ETH $1,967.03 -0.14%
BNB $617.44 +0.14%
XRP $1.45 -1.90%
SOL $84.97 -0.31%
TRX $0.2816 +0.43%
DOGE $0.0985 -2.84%
ADA $0.2798 -0.48%
BCH $556.89 -0.17%
LINK $8.75 -0.11%
HYPE $29.40 -1.82%
AAVE $124.74 -0.92%
SUI $0.9678 +1.06%
XLM $0.1656 -1.68%
ZEC $284.38 -3.20%

health

Wintermute: ETF funds drive BTC to break $95,000, tariff disturbances cause a pullback but the structure remains healthy

BTC broke through the $95,000 resistance level for the first time since last November, reaching nearly $98,000, against the backdrop of ETF fund inflows and softening inflation data. However, following Trump's announcement of tariffs on eight European countries regarding Greenland, macro risk sentiment intensified, causing BTC to quickly retreat to around $92,000. Within hours, approximately $850 million in long positions were liquidated across the market, with BTC and ETH accounting for nearly half.From the perspective of the factors driving the rise, the market was primarily supported by three aspects: first, there was a significant inflow of Bitcoin spot ETF funds, with a net inflow of about $760 million in a single day and a weekly total of about $1.4 billion; second, inflation data continued to cool, with the U.S. core CPI at 2.6% year-on-year, the lowest since March 2021; third, BTC's rebound trading against hard assets like gold. On the macro level, the tariff news reintroduced downward pressure.Trump announced a 10% tariff on Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland, with plans to increase it to 25% in June. The EU subsequently prepared about €93 billion in countermeasures. Meanwhile, tensions in the Middle East continue to simmer, putting overall pressure on risk assets.On the regulatory and institutional front, recent developments continue to impact medium-term expectations: The CLARITY Act faced setbacks due to disagreements between Coinbase and the White House over stablecoin yield provisions, temporarily weakening the catalyst for regulatory clarity; Goldman Sachs confirmed it is actively researching tokenization and stablecoin-related technologies; South Korea passed amendments to establish a legal basis for tokenized securities; and the New York Stock Exchange confirmed it is exploring a tokenized 24/7 trading mechanism.Regarding the market outlook, the market-making institution Wintermute believes that this breakout is different from previous leverage-driven rallies, being more driven by real capital inflows. Although Monday's sharp drop was severe, leverage was quickly cleared, and the market did not experience a chain reaction of downward movements, with the overall structure still appearing healthy. In the short term, attention should be paid to whether BTC can hold above $90,000 and whether ETF fund flows will continue; if this range is lost, the consolidation range since last November may revert to a resistance level.

Wintermute: The market structure looks healthier, and the market may continue to consolidate

Wintermute stated that although digital assets were initially dragged down by macro-driven pullbacks due to the stagnation of AI sentiment, and later impacted by the Federal Reserve resetting expectations, the internal structure of the market now appears to be substantially healthier. Major cryptocurrencies are showing clearer relative strength, market sentiment has completely cleared, and excess leverage has largely dissipated. The total open interest of perpetual contracts has decreased from about $230 billion at the beginning of October to about $135 billion today, primarily due to the deleveraging of long-tail assets and the exit of systemic capital flows. This shift has pushed market activity back to the spot market, where the depth and liquidity of the spot market remain better than expected during the thin trading holiday week.When leverage is reduced so significantly and capital flows are dominated by the spot market, recoveries tend to be more orderly than the mechanically driven short squeezes earlier this year. Negative funding rates and reduced net short positions in perpetual contracts have also lowered the risk of further passive liquidations, which will provide more breathing room for the market if the macro environment stabilizes. The next few trading days will set the tone for how we enter the final month of the year, but after weeks of macro-driven pressure, the conditions for market consolidation are finally in place.
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