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According to Jinshi reports, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 0.5%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 99.5%. By June, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut rises to 7.1%, with the probability of keeping rates unchanged at 92.4%. By July, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 18.1%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 80.6%.

As the first centralized exchange (CEX) to connect with Polymarket, Gate's data shows that in the prediction event "How will the Federal Reserve's April interest rate decision change?", the market estimates the probability of interest rates remaining unchanged at a high of 99%. Currently, the overall sentiment in the macro market is cautious, with most participants expecting to maintain a wait-and-see stance in this month's meeting, awaiting more economic data guidance. Keeping interest rates unchanged helps stabilize market liquidity and risk appetite, and various assets, including stock indices and commodities, are expected to attract investor interest. Gate has a comprehensive layout of traditional asset categories, covering the widest range in the network.In addition, users can directly access the prediction market through the Gate App, entering the Polymarket page from the platform's homepage Alpha and using USDT in their exchange account to participate in event predictions. This integration marks a key step for Gate in the fusion of the crypto trading ecosystem and prediction markets, also bringing users a more open and diverse market participation experience.

Patrick Witte, the Executive Director of the White House Digital Assets Presidential Advisory Committee, stated on Monday that substantive progress is being made in Senate negotiations surrounding the Clarity Act, with a compromise reached on the issue of stablecoin yields expected to hold, and the focus of negotiations has shifted to other unresolved topics.The issue of stablecoin yields was previously the biggest obstacle to advancing the bill. Banking lobbyists successfully persuaded some senators that providing yields similar to bank interest to stablecoin holders would threaten the traditional banking deposit base, causing the bill to reach an impasse. Witte stated, "We hope that the compromise reached will be durable and stable. Resolving this issue is a prerequisite for advancing other pending matters." Last week, the White House economic advisors released a report downplaying the risk concerns raised by the banking industry; in response, the American Bankers Association rebutted on Monday, claiming the White House's arguments were flawed.In addition to stablecoin yields, the bill also faces several disagreements, including illegal financial protection mechanisms in the DeFi space and a demand from Democrats to prohibit senior government officials (specifically targeting President Trump) from profiting from the crypto industry. Witte did not disclose which topics have reached consensus but indicated that negotiations have "made considerable progress behind the scenes," stating, "We are very close to comprehensively resolving these issues." The Clarity Act still needs to go through the Senate Banking Committee's markup review process before being submitted for a full Senate vote. Witte expressed optimism about reaching a final agreement, noting that many issues that previously seemed stuck have gradually been resolved.

The latest U.S. PCE inflation data largely met expectations, easing market uncertainty, and Bitcoin's price stabilized after previously reaching around $73,000. Data shows that the core PCE year-on-year is 3%, and month-on-month is 0.4%. The market is also influenced by the easing situation between the U.S. and Iran, but analysts point out that the current PCE data has not yet reflected potential energy price shocks.Although the inflation data did not trigger significant market fluctuations, investors remain cautious about the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations for this year. Economist Mohamed El-Erian stated that compared to PCE, the upcoming CPI data to be released this week will have a more critical impact on the market, especially against the backdrop of oil price fluctuations. On the trading front, the market remains in a volatile range, with liquidity mainly concentrated in the $69,000 to $76,000 range. Trader Michaël van de Poppe believes that as long as the key support range holds, Bitcoin is expected to start a new round of upward momentum, targeting $80,000.

Coinbase Institutional released the Q2 2026 cryptocurrency market outlook, maintaining a neutral stance. The report points out that the escalation of the situation in Iran has disrupted market expectations for fiscal and monetary stimulus, driving funds back into cash assets. Despite significant volatility in global markets, Bitcoin's decline is notably smaller than that of the S&P 500, demonstrating greater resilience amid the fluctuations.The institution believes that the current macro environment is changing rapidly, with geopolitical risks intertwined with inflation and interest rate expectations, leading to a lack of clear direction in the cryptocurrency market in the short term. Coinbase Institutional recommends focusing on highly liquid and well-established assets like Bitcoin under a neutral allocation, waiting for signals of trend changes after geopolitical risks ease and macro policies become clearer.

Aave founder Stani Kulechov tweeted that Aave respects Chaos Labs' decision to withdraw from its risk management role and thanks them for their contributions over the past years. The smart contracts, asset listings, and network deployments of the Aave protocol are not affected, and both parties will maintain close cooperation during the withdrawal process.Aave currently employs a dual-layer economic risk management model, jointly managed by Chaos Labs and LlamaRisk. Given the scale of the Aave protocol, it will continue to maintain the dual-layer model in the future and additionally add a technical risk layer managed by Aave Labs. Aave Labs will work closely with LlamaRisk to ensure that risk coverage remains uninterrupted during the transition and to support LlamaRisk in increasing its budget and team size.

QCP's weekly report pointed out that against the backdrop of escalating geopolitical tensions and rising oil price volatility, Bitcoin remains around $67,000, demonstrating a certain level of resilience; Ethereum shows steady performance, while altcoins lag behind.Market positions have been cleared, selling pressure has eased, and short-term hedging demand remains active, indicating that the market is no longer overly crowded. There is indeed support, but it is relatively limited. There is buying support for Bitcoin, but a comprehensive chase for higher prices has not yet emerged.

According to Onchain Lens monitoring, the whale "0x7f5" closed its long position in CL (crude oil), making a profit of $913,789. This whale has accumulated three long positions in CL, earning a total profit of $2.7 million, with a win rate of 100%.

According to Jinshi reports, New York Fed President Williams stated that the inflation and employment risks brought about by rising energy prices have become "balanced," and he tends to support keeping interest rates unchanged. Williams believes that monetary policy is well-prepared to balance these risks and stated that losses in the private credit sector will not pose systemic risks, with policymakers "closely monitoring" banks' risk exposures.

The Nasdaq-listed Bitcoin mining company Bitdeer released the latest data on its Bitcoin holdings on the X platform, currently maintaining a zero Bitcoin holding. As of that week, its Bitcoin mining output was 146 BTC, and it sold 146 BTC during the same period.

At the Future Investment Initiative summit held in Miami, Trump stated that Bitcoin has significant influence and that the United States should maintain a leading position in this field. He pointed out that an increasing number of users wish to use virtual assets, especially Bitcoin, for payments, and that the United States needs to be at the forefront of related development trends.

According to Jinshi, U.S. President Trump stated that he hopes the United States can maintain low interest rates and achieve an inflation-free economic environment.

According to Jin Shi reports, Federal Reserve official Barkin stated that maintaining interest rates unchanged in March "seems prudent."

Crypto market analyst Axel released a latest report stating that in the past 30 days, Bitcoin ETFs (in the U.S. and elsewhere) have seen a cumulative net inflow of 62,986 BTC (approximately $11.3 billion), bringing total holdings to 1.327 million BTC.During the same period, short-term holders continued to realize losses on exchanges, with daily outflows from the loss side averaging 15,500 BTC. Axel pointed out that current institutional buying has surpassed retail selling pressure, providing support for prices, but the market is showing a divergent pattern—short-term participants are still selling at a loss, while ETF funds are gradually absorbing supply. To maintain the upward momentum, prices need to stabilize above $70,000, and ETF fund inflows must remain positive.

According to Jinshi Data, Goldman Sachs stated that the recent decline in gold prices is generally consistent with past trends, noting that the increase in interest rate expectations and market volatility are the main factors leading to the price drop.The co-head of the global commodities research department, Damien Courvalin, said on Wednesday, "Given our current pricing framework, this decline is not surprising." He pointed out that the rise in interest rate expectations has impacted investor demand, particularly through ETFs. Extreme market pressure can also affect gold prices, as investors facing margin calls often sell gold along with other assets.He also noted that the recent rise in gold prices has exceeded fundamental expectations, with some of the pullback reflecting "a certain degree of normalization." However, Goldman Sachs maintains its overall optimistic outlook, expecting gold prices to reach $5,400 by the end of the year. The reasoning is supported by the ongoing central bank purchases of gold as countries seek to diversify their assets (i.e., shifting towards assets with "lower political and financial risks").

Research and brokerage firm Bernstein stated that Bitcoin has likely bottomed out and is expected to continue rising, while maintaining its price target of $150,000 by 2026.Despite the stock price dropping 50% from its peak, Strategy (stock code: MSTR) has shown strong resilience, currently holding about 3.6% of the total Bitcoin supply (approximately $53.5 billion). Bernstein believes that MSTR is a high beta investment vehicle for Bitcoin, and its balance sheet is relatively robust. Strategy has not reduced its exposure; instead, it has continued to increase its Bitcoin holdings at recent lows, raising $7.3 billion through financing in 2026 to expand its position.

According to the Korea Times, South Korea's second-largest cryptocurrency exchange, Bithumb, is still pushing for the re-election of its current CEO, Lee Jae-won, despite facing a series of controversies and regulatory penalties. Previously, on February 6, 2026, Bithumb experienced a serious operational error during a promotional event, resulting in the erroneous distribution of approximately 620,000 BTC, about 15 times the actual amount held by the exchange, to users. This exposed significant flaws in Bithumb's internal verification, asset management, and ledger systems. The error was discovered and controlled within 35 minutes, with the exchange freezing transactions and withdrawals for 695 affected accounts, claiming to have recovered 99.7% of the erroneously issued assets, but the incident still triggered a brief panic in the market.The Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU) under the South Korean Financial Services Commission imposed several penalties on Bithumb, including a six-month suspension of some operations, a 36.8 billion won (approximately 24 million USD) fine for anti-money laundering violations, a warning to CEO Lee Jae-won, and a six-month suspension for the reporting officer.CEO Lee Jae-won's term will end this month, and the company plans to hold a regular shareholders' meeting on March 31 to discuss a proposal to extend his term for another two years. Despite the significant failures and regulatory pressure, Bithumb has chosen to push for re-election to maintain operational continuity and stability rather than undergo a management reshuffle. In similar situations in the past, such as when Upbit's CEO transitioned to an advisory role after receiving a warning from the FIU, management often faced greater accountability.

Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Asset Research at VanEck, stated on social media that the average price of Bitcoin dropped by 19% on the 30th, but the spot price has stabilized. Market volatility has significantly decreased, with realized volatility falling from 80% to 50%, and the futures funding rate dropping from 4.1% to 2.7%. On-chain activity has cooled down, with transaction volume decreasing by 31%, daily average fees reducing by 27%, and the distribution speed of long-term holders slowing down.On the miner side, they have largely maintained a "mine and sell" strategy, selling almost all newly issued Bitcoins. Defensive sentiment in the options market has peaked, with the ratio of put/call open interest averaging 0.77, reaching a new high since June 2021; the premium of put options relative to spot trading volume has reached a historical high of 4 basis points.

The Swiss National Bank kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0%, in line with market expectations, marking the third consecutive time it has held steady.

The Party Committee of the People's Bank of China held an expanded meeting. Actively and steadily resolve financial risks in key areas. Maintain a dynamic balance between economic growth, economic structure adjustment, and financial risk prevention at the macro level. Continue to promote the resolution of debt risks for financing platform support.Adhere to the principles of marketization and rule of law, and actively and steadily handle risks in small and medium-sized financial institutions. Fully leverage the central bank's macro-prudential management and financial stability functions, and firmly maintain the stable operation of financial markets such as stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange. Research and establish a liquidity support mechanism for non-bank financial institutions under specific scenarios. Work with relevant departments to continue a high-pressure crackdown on illegal financial activities.